Morning Session - 2022 Meeting
1. When the owners are really old, it’s good to see them in person
WARREN BUFFETT: (Applause) Thank you.
I don’t hear anything from the index funds. Where are they? (Laughter)
It really feels good to get back and be doing this in person. It’s been three years. And it’s a lot better seeing actual shareholders, owners, partners. (Applause)
We — Charlie and I are now, combined, (unintelligible) round for fractions — the two of us are 190 years old. (Laughter)
And I really think you’re entitled, if you’re the owner of a company, and if you’ve got two guys, 98 and 91 running the company, you’re entitled to actually see them in person, I mean. (Laughter)
It really shouldn’t be too much to ask. I mean, for example, if we had a manager someplace that was 98, I might want to send somebody by occasionally to see whether he was cutting paper (Laughter) dolls or something.
So, we probably do things that are a lot more foolish than cutting out paper dolls, but we’re having a lot of fun doing it.
And we really have a lot of fun when you come visit us.
Actually, we had — if you go back a few years — we’ve had a couple of managers that suffered from dementia. Probably many more but, I mean, just a couple of known ones, actually. (Laughter)
And there was one fellow that Charlie and I really loved.
And he ran a business for us. Charlie — it was out in California — Charlie would see him occasionally, and I didn’t see him. But everything seemed fine. And then we found out that he’d really been suffering from dementia for quite a while. And he really was a wonderful friend of both of ours.
But the business had done fine, so that’s become our test really, (Laughter) for new businesses.
We try to find something that a guy with Alzheimer’s can run, actually. (Laughter)
And you don’t have as much competition for businesses like that. (Laughter) The guy sitting there cutting out paper dolls and, you know, that’s our man. (Laughter)
2. Greg Abel and Ajit Jain introduced
WARREN BUFFETT: I’d like to introduce two fellows who really work at Berkshire.
On Charlie’s left, Greg Abel, who runs all the operations outside — (Applause) — yeah.
And next to him is — I ran the insurance business for about 15 years unsuccessfully. And then fortunately, the fellow on the far left came in one day — and I’ve written about it — but he came in on a Saturday. And I was opening the mail, and he said that he’d be happy to run our insurance business.
I said, “Have you ever run an insurance business?” And he said, “No.” And as I’ve mentioned, I said to him, “Well, you know, I’ve never run one either, so I’m not doing so hot, so (Laughter) give it a try.”
And, you know, he transformed Berkshire Hathaway. And Ajit Jain is here with us. (Applause)
3. The day’s schedule
WARREN BUFFETT: What we’ll do today — and I have to remind myself from time to time that the people here, of course, saw that movie and everything, but, of course, we’re webcasting this.
So, I’ll probably make some references to the movie or something that’ll puzzle (Laughter) millions of people out there, but you’ll get it, so — (Laughter)
We’re going to talk for a little while about what’s happened in the last quarter and bring up a few other things that you might be interested in.
And we will then, whenever that’s finished, we’ll go on to questions. And we will take the questions until noon, break for an hour — that’s Midwest time for those of you who are watching in other time zones — we’ll go on until noon. And we’ll break for an hour.
And then Charlie and I will come back, and we’ll take more questions until 3:30. And then we’ll convene the shareholders meeting at 3:45 — we’ll take a break for 15 minutes — and then we’ll do the shareholders meeting. And when that’s done, we’ll all go our various ways.
4. See’s brought 11 tons of candy to sell
WARREN BUFFETT: I do want to report, incidentally, that you’ve been doing your part, in terms of the room we have adjacent to this location, where we’ve been — yesterday for five hours, from noon to 5, we had 12,000 shareholders come, and just spend money on everything we could think of to sell them. (Laughter)
We brought in 11 tons of See’s Candy. And if we don’t sell out, Charlie and I get the rest, so. (Laughter)
But you did your part. See’s sold — they set a record yesterday for the Friday afternoon meeting. And it’s (Cheering) pretty heartening. (Applause) Yeah.
Incidentally, I’ve got a box of See’s Candy here, and it’s very — it’s sort of interesting.
On this cover, which I hope you can see, there’s a picture of a woman who was born in 1854. And today, she probably gets her picture seen more often than just about any woman in America, in terms of a commercial product or something of the sort.
So, we’ve got her picture up in over 200 stores, and on every box of candy. That’s Mary See, born in 1854.
A lot of people think this is me in drag, but that is not true. (Laughter) I mean —
There’s a certain resemblance, but (Laughter) it’s just not.
These rumors are started by our competitors. Don’t pay any attention to them. (Laughter)
5. We like to give everybody financial information at the same time
WARREN BUFFETT: So, we will — that’s our schedule for the day.
And what we will do — we like to give all — we like to give shareholders — owners — partners — we like to give everybody the same information at the same time, and preferably do it when stock markets aren’t open. It seems to us that that’s — everybody ought to be on the same playing field.
It’s very interesting — we don’t know how many shareholders we’ve got. They’ve changed the rules over time as to registered holders and getting stock certificates and all that sort of thing.
So, we can’t keep track of it like 50 or 75 years ago, where we had an actual shareholders list. But we’re told — we’re told by the people who mail out our information — it’s a firm in, I think, New Jersey — let’s see — Broadridge — and they pretty well do this for a very significant percentage of American corporations.
So, they actually mail things out for us. And they bill us for 3 1/2 million accounts. And I’ll take their word for it. I mean, the more accounts they bill us for — we pay them by the account — so, you know, somedays, I feel like I’d like to count — but that is a — (Laughter) — that is a lot of people that trust us.
And they’ve — rightly in my view — overwhelmingly — feel that they’re our partners.
And some of them will like reading the financial information they’ve given us — that we give you.
But most — a great many of them just say, you know, “We’ve saved this money. And we trust you and Charlie.” And that’s a great motivator, this trust.
“And, you know, take care of it and I’m not going to learn accounting and try to read all those statements or anything of the sort.”
But we do believe that, for those who do use the information we release, they should all get it at the same time.
And we have a few institutions that, even though in the third paragraph of my letter every year I refer to the fact that we want to have everybody get the same information, and that we don’t feel that anybody’s entitled to special meetings — we can’t hold 3 million special meetings with our partners —but we like the fact that everybody gets the same deal, everybody gets the same information.
This morning, on the internet, we put up our 10-Q for the quarter. And I’d like to take you through a few comments on that and a few other comments, and then we’ll get to the questions.
When we get to the questions, we will alternate between those mailed in by shareholders, which Becky Quick at CNBC and people who’ve helped her, sort of curated, to get what they think are the most interesting questions from shareholders. They’re not from CNBC itself, but they are from shareholders, owners.
And we’ll alternate the ones sent in versus the ones that come here. And we don’t get the questions ahead of time. And we enjoy getting surprised by, I’d say, almost all questions. (Laughs)
And we will keep doing that, like I say, with a break for lunch, until 3:30, when we’ll have the meeting, so —
6. We have an “extreme aversion” to losing your money
WARREN BUFFETT: I would like to start by putting up the first slide, which is Q1. And there we have it. That’s what we published this morning. And there are really no great surprises in terms of the quarter.
I mean, there are always some companies that are doing very well, and there are some companies that aren’t for one reason or another.
And in the end, as you can see, we prefer to use something called operating earnings. Now, that is after depreciation and interest and taxes, unlike other companies that prefer to tell you anything but what they earned.
But we do separate out capital gains. Now, over time, as I’ve said, over the next 20 years, I would expect us, net, to have more capital gains than not. But, you know, who knows? I hope you’ll — you know, I’ll report to you in 20 years whether that’s (Laughter) happened or not.
But, as you can see, we made about $7 billion in the first quarter. And that’s a real 7 billion. I mean, we basically have that income in cash when the quarter’s over. That isn’t true every quarter, exactly, but we are talking about 7 billion of real money in that.
And those managers who the people here saw in the movie, they’re the people that work with your money to accomplish what Charlie and I never thought would — never really planned or anything to happen — but it just, sort of, came about just, sort of, putting one foot in front of the other.
Now obviously, the last two years in particular, including the first quarter, all kinds of unusual things happened in our various businesses.
I mean, when we had the meeting two years ago in May of — roughly the start of May of 2020 — we didn’t know what was going to happen with the pandemic. We didn’t know what was going to happen with the economy. And everybody that thought they did has gotten all kinds of surprises since.
But here we are in 2022 and Berkshire, like I say, had 7 billion of operating earnings. And we’ve got lots, and lots, and lots of companies. We’ve got 360,000 people out there that have taken your savings and go to work every day.
And they have jobs. We deliver products. And you put up the money for it and you deserve to — you took the risks, and we feel very good about how things have turned out. And we want to keep feeling good.
And we have a — we have a — extreme aversion to incurring any permanent loss with your funds.
You know, if I went broke, it wouldn’t really make any difference. It’d keep doing what I do. I’d figure out a way to read a paper and watch a little TV (Laughter) and think about things and talk to Charlie.
But the idea of losing, permanently, other people’s money — people who trust us — really, really — that’s just a future I don’t want to have. And as Charlie says, “All I want to know is where I’ll die so I’ll never go there.” And — (Laughter) — that seems pretty sound. (Laughter)
CHARLIE MUNGER: It’s worked so far.
WARREN BUFFETT: In case you missed it, Charlie says it’s worked so far. (Laughter)
And we would die, psychologically, if we lost a lot of other people’s money. We wouldn’t take it in the first place. It’d be crazy to take people’s money and lose it if you’re going to feel terrible about doing it.
So, the one thing I can tell you about Berkshire — although I can’t predict what our earnings will be, and I can’t predict what the stock will do, and I can’t — we don’t know. We don’t know what the economy will do and all of that sort of thing.
But we do know that we wake up every morning and we want to be safer, in terms of your eventual investment.
Now, whether you make the most money or anything, we do not want you to get a terrible result because you’ve decided to become our partner. And that’s a pledge you can live by.
7. “We spent 40 billion in a hurry there in three weeks”
WARREN BUFFETT: Now, let’s see what we have here.
In [slide] Q-2, it gives some indication of that, because we — and this is kind of interesting.
I wrote — I wrote a letter to our owners. And it was dated February 26th. And that was a Saturday — released. But I write the letter all through the year in my mind. I mean — I don’t — you know, we don’t have anybody that sits out and writes out the letter or anything like that. I mean, this is a letter between partners.
And I write the letter all year in my head. I’m writing next year’s letter. I don’t write out the words, but I have things I want to tell my partners.
My sister’s a partner. And I’m writing to her in my head. My older sister died not too long ago, but I used to be writing to both of them, in effect.
And want to tell her, you know, what I think and about the business and what I think she ought to think about it, and so on.
So, the letter’s dated February 26th. And I said, “Not much is going on.” And actually, we might jump over to [slide] Q-3, if we will.
So, I sent out a letter on February 26th. But that wasn’t written on February 26th. And I said basically, “Nothing much is happening around here.” And I said, “We’ve repurchased some shares. And we just aren’t seeing anything.”
And between January 1st and February 18th, as you can see, we spent $2.2 billion, which is half the quarter, you know, so probably 30 trading days in there. And we sold —
So basically, we didn’t do anything. And then in the next three weeks or thereabouts, we spent 40 billion.
And incidentally, when I say we spent 40 billion, there’s one fellow in the office that does this all. I mean, he buys all the stocks. He buys the government bonds. He doesn’t have an assistant or anything. But he spent $41 billion. (Laughter)
Yeah. He literally — I mean — and he does other things for me, too. He, you know, puts together totals. He just does what he needs to do. And he’s worked in other jobs at Berkshire long ago.
But he likes doing what he does. And he does it very well, and we don’t have a department for it.
And as you can see, it fell off after that. And we did also in the first — in the first quarter, we spent about 3.1 or 3.2 billion — somewhere in that — for repurchasing shares. And —
We didn’t — you know, we talked about that in the annual report. And as Charlie would say, it’s keeping us out of bars. I mean, you know, it gave us something to do.
And it — we never do anything that we don’t think adds to the value of Berkshire Hathaway, though. So we only repurchase the shares when that is the most attractive thing.
We haven’t repurchased any shares at all in April. So, it’s —
People who are looking for all these, you know, footprints in the woods and all — that isn’t what we’re doing. We’re just doing it day by day as it comes along.
And I think this table kind of illustrates that, that we spent 40 billion in a hurry there between — in three weeks.
And now we’re back, somewhat, in our more lethargic mood. But that — anything could change at Berkshire.
8. Cash is like “oxygen”
WARREN BUFFETT: But the one thing that won’t change — going back to [slide] Q-2, if you’ll — is we will always have a lot of cash on hand.
And when I say cash, I don’t mean commercial paper.
When 2008 and 2009 — the national panic came along — we didn’t own anybody’s commercial paper. You know, we didn’t have money market funds. We have Treasury bills. And, as I may get into it a little later, I’ll explain to you why.
We would — we believe in having cash.
And there have been a few times in history, and there will be more times in history, where if you don’t have it, you know, you don’t get to play the next day. I mean, it’s just —
It’s like oxygen, you know? It’s there all the time. But if it disappears for a few minutes, it’s all over. So —
Our cash was down on March 31st because, as you saw, we spent that large sum there in that brief period during the quarter, 40 billion.
We’ve committed to buy Alleghany Corp for something over 11 billion.
But we will always have a lot of cash. We won’t — we don’t —
Some of our companies have bank lines. I don’t know why they have the bank lines. We’re better than the banks, and we’ll give them the money if they (laughs) need it.
But, you know, the local bankers have been calling on them and they need something to do. Everybody else has bank lines, so it’s harmless. But there’s no reason for any of our subsidiaries — (UNINTEL). Berkshire is stronger than the banks, but — (Yell from audience)
I didn’t hear exactly what he had — I don’t know whether that was a banker screaming, or — (Laughter)
I don’t — I don’t really like to torture — I don’t like to torture anybody, I mean. (Laughs)
But — and I’m all for banks, and we’ll talk about that a little later.
In fact, we might even talk about it right now just for a minute.
Money’s kind of an interesting thing. People seem to like to talk to me about it. I mean, they don’t ask me how to dance or anything like that, but they do ask about money.
And so — if we’ll put up [slide] 20-dash-1 — it’s a photo of a $20 bill. And it says at the top, “Federal Reserve Notes.” Now — Federal Reserve Note — we’ve done all kinds of things with money in this country. It’s amazing, in a country only a couple of hundred years old, the number of different experiments we’ve made with banks and everything.
But we finally just decided to let the Federal Reserve do the issuing of money. And —
Down in the lower left-hand corner — incidentally, I think [former U.S. Treasury Secretary] Rosie Rios — who signed this note — I think she signed more U.S. currency than any other person in history.
So, if you see Rosie, you know, you cozy up to her. I mean, this is a woman who (laughs) has issued a lot of currency.
But it says, “This note is legal tender for all debts public and private.” And that makes it money.
You can go into our candy store, and if you offer us enough bushels of wheat, we’ll probably give you a box of candy.
But money is the only thing that the IRS is going to take from you. You can offer them all kinds of — you can offer them paintings — you can offer them — all — whatever — but this is what settles debts in the United States.
And I thought that — you’ll hear a lot about various kinds of money — this is the only kind of money you’re going to see, in my opinion, throughout your lifetime or even throughout Charlie’s lifetime. This is —
And it’s very interesting because it just says that settle — legal tender for all debts, public and private, and nothing else says that, except, I thought you might be interested in seeing another $20 bill.
And this one I own. And on that — it’s got the same guy’s picture — Andrew Jackson — and everything.
And that’s a $20 bill. And that $20 bill was issued during my lifetime. And it was done by a bank that Berkshire ended up owning. So, you’ll see the Illinois National Bank and Trust of Rockford.
And we bought that bank back in 1969. And if you look down in the bottom of that one, it’s signed by a fellow named Eugene Abegg. And we bought it from Eugene Abegg.
So, we still have some $20 bills that came in sheets. And we can cut them out like paper dolls. And they’re our money. The Illinois National Bank issued money.
But just remember, the United States government, in effect, said that this became exchangeable for lawful money in the United States. That’s what money is.
It may turn out that it becomes worth dramatically less in purchasing power. It can become almost like paper money, as it has in many countries. But that is all — when people tell you that they’re issuing new forms of money, this is the only thing that will pay bills, under some circumstances.
And there were days — a few days in 2008 — and we came very close to having a repeat in March, 2020 — and we had plenty of money on March 20th — but we were not very, very far away from having something that might have been a repeat of 2008 or even worse.
And we have a bookstore here: The Bookworm. It’s in the other room. And they’ve got a book called Trillion Dollar Triage.
And for those of you who actually like to read about this sort of thing, it’s a marvelous account of what took place day by day with the Federal Reserve and the Treasury.
And believe me, if the Federal Reserve hadn’t done what they did, at least in my view, in a very, very, very short period of time, things could have stopped.
And I tipped my hat a couple years ago to [Federal Reserve Chairman] Jay Powell for acting as he did. He has to act with speed. I mean, in the old days when you had runs on banks back in the 19th century, you know, a line formed, you know, and a bank would go broke.
But the fellow would pay out as slowly as possible, you know, hoping something would happen — a Wells Fargo truck or a stagecoach would pull up with a bunch of gold or something and you’d sweet-talk the people in the line dispersing.
In Omaha, in August of 1931, four state banks — so-called state banks — they had those in that day — they closed and the national banks didn’t. But they were all broke as of that day. No bank can pay off in one day all of its liabilities. But the Federal Reserve is the only one that stood at that time.
But I will tell you this. Berkshire Hathaway will be there (laughs) at that time.
We run it on the basis that if things had just behaved slightly — very — if [former U.S. Treasury Secretary] Hank Paulson, George H. W. Bush — or no, George W. Bush, I’m sorry — and [former Federal Reserve Chairman] Ben Bernanke and a few people hadn’t taken action, we were at that point where the line was formed, except it comes in electronic funds — they push buttons — and it’s all over very fast if there’s a run on a bank.
If you ever buy a bank, and there are two banks in town, hire a few extras, and have them go over and start standing in line at the other guy’s bank. (Laughter)
And there’s only one problem with that. After a while, somebody will stand in front of your bank, you know, and then both of you are gone.
But the Federal Reserve is not gone. And the Federal Reserve in the United States can do whatever is necessary. They’ve got all kinds of rules about — they can do this or that, and this and that.
And at one time in the 1980s, [former Federal Reserve Chairman] Paul Volcker, who was a very honest man, said to me — I said, you know, “What are the limits of what you can do?”
And he said — he was a very unusual guy — and huge — looked down at me — and said, “We can do whatever we need to do.” (Laughs)
And that’s true. And that’s what happened in 2008 and ’09, and that’s what happened in 2020.
And you hope it happens again next time. But you want to be — we want Berkshire Hathaway to be there and in a position to operate when — if the economy stops.
And that can always happen. That can always happen.
So, with those cheery words — (laughter) — let’s see if we — I think — maybe if we can actually — it might be a good idea to start with some questions.
As I said, we will have the questions alternate between CNBC — Becky Quick — and those are questions that have come in from shareholders. And they can be directed to any of the four of us up here. And then we will alternate and go around the room here.
And we’ve got the auditorium broken into ten or 11 sections.
Charlie and I one time, we got out a form and it said, “Officers of the company broken down by age,” and we just put all of us (laughs) as an answer to that question.
But we’ll have it broken down by categories around here. And we’ll keep alternating. And we will break for lunch at noon and reconvene at 1:00.
9. How a casual email led to the Alleghany insurance deal
WARREN BUFFETT: So, let’s start off and Becky, will you lead the way?
BECKY QUICK: Thanks, Warren. The first question comes from Jack Suselesky (PH). And he says, “In the annual letter that you wrote on February 26th, you mentioned that Charlie and you saw ‘little that excites us in the market.’ Yet around March 10th, the deal for Alleghany was announced, and then later the Occidental announcement, then the disclosure of the HP investment.”
His question is, “What changed from the time you dated the letter to the time the investments were announced that the names suddenly become interesting in the space of a month and a half, or half a month?”
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, Charlie, you want to give your version? I’ll give my version.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, my version would be we found some things we preferred owning to Treasury bills. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: And as usual, Charlie’s given the total answer, but I’ll talk longer and say less. (Laughter)
Actually, the letter’s dated February 26th, when we were confessing our inability to find anything, which was a Saturday. But the day before that, February 25th, I got an email.
Actually, my assistant, Debbie Bosanek, gets it because I can’t figure out quite how to handle the machinery.
So, she brought it in. Actually, she puts a bunch on the edge of her desk, and I collect them occasionally.
And there was a note, just a few lines long, from a fellow that is a friend of mine and that worked for Berkshire many years ago. And this was on February 25th, the day before the thing.
And he said he’d now become CEO of Alleghany Corp. I’ve been following Alleghany Corp for 60 years. Now, I’d read their annual reports. I had four big file drawers full of them because it was an interesting company. And all companies interested me.
WARREN BUFFETT: So, I knew a lot about Alleghany Corp. (Laughs)
And Joe [Brandon] said, you know, “This is my first annual report as CEO, and I just wanted to send it along to you. Just like you write for your sisters,” he says, “I write this report as if I’m writing to you.”
And I sent a note back to Joe. And I said, you know, “I’m going to read it over the weekend,” or whatever I said to him on it, which was true. I mean, I looked forward to reading it.
And I said, “By the way, I’m going to be in New York on March 7th. And can we get together? I’d like to see you.”
And, I think I may have said, “I’ve got an idea.” Well, I didn’t have that idea the day before. (Laughs)
This thing happened to come in on Friday the 26th. And I knew I’d buy Alleghany at a price. And if he hadn’t sent me the note, it never would’ve occurred to me to write him and say, “Why don’t we get together on March 7th?” or anything of the sort.
It just wouldn’t have happened, except for the fact that Joe wanted to send me along this annual report that he’d just written.
So that’s the orderly decision-making process. I didn’t call up investment bankers and say, you know, “Will you prepare me a report on this? And, you know, what’s your advice?” and all that stuff.
I knew we’d buy Alleghany at the price we offered. And if it was of interest to Alleghany, fine. If it wasn’t —
But otherwise, if that email hadn’t been sent, we would not have made an offer for Alleghany. So, give credit to the fact that Joe had written the annual report, and if he’d sent it a week earlier, well — you know, I wasn’t going to make a special trip to New York, but I wanted to sit down with him and tell him what Berkshire would do.
But that explains the 11 billion. (Laughs)
10. People gambling on stocks made big Occidental stock buys possible
WARREN BUFFETT: And what happened was that a few stocks got very interesting to us. And we also spent a lot of money.
What happened — the market — and this is really important to understand — in the last couple years, the stock market has probably — it’s always been a combination of a casino and a — and when I talk about Wall Street, I’m talking about the whole capital formation market — but the — and trading market, et cetera.
But the market has been extraordinary.
Sometimes it’s quite investment oriented. It’s not like it — it’s always what you’ve read about in the books and everything — what capital markets are supposed to do, and you study it in school and all that. And other times, it’s almost totally a casino, and it’s a gambling parlor.
And that existed to an extraordinary degree in the last couple of years — encouraged by Wall Street because the money is in turning over stocks. I mean, people say how wonderfully you’ve done if you bought Berkshire in, you know, 1965 or something and held it. But your broker would’ve starved to death.
Wall Street makes money on — one way or another — catching the crumbs that fall off a table of capitalism and an incredible economy that, you know, nobody could’ve ever dreamed of a couple hundred years ago.
But they don’t make money unless people do things (laughs) and if they get a piece of them.
And they make a lot more money when people are gambling than when they’re investing. It’s much better to have somebody that’s going to trade 20 times a day and get all excited about it, just like pulling the handle on a slot machine. You know, that’s who you — you know —
You may not say that you want that person. You’d like the other kind of person, too, maybe, but that’s where you make the money. (Laughs)
And the degree to which the market got dominated by that is shown on a slide some — I have it here somewhere. Yeah. Here’s — on [slide] Oxy-one — if you’ll put up the Oxy-one.
That shows how we bought what became — well, we bought in two weeks, or thereabouts, 14% of Occidental Petroleum.
And you’ll say, “Well, how can you buy 14% of a company in two weeks?” And it’s more extreme than that, because if you look at the Occidental proxy, you’ll see that — the standard names — BlackRock index funds, State Street index funds, basically, Vanguard index funds, and then one other firm, Dodge & Cox.
If you take those four entities — and they’re not going to buy and sell stock — they may get their own little — so they own 40% of the company, roughly, those four firms.
And they didn’t do anything during this period. So now you’re down to 60% of the Occidental Petroleum Company that’s even available for sale.
Occidental’s been around for years, and years, and years. Big company, all kinds of things.
And with 60% of the stock outstanding, I go in and tell Mark Millard, this fellow that is 30 feet away from me or so, and I say in the morning to him, you know, “Buy 20% and take blocks, or whatever it may be.”
And in two weeks, he buys 14% out of 60%. That’s not investment. (Laughter)
I mean, you’re not buying from — I find it just incredible.
You wouldn’t be able to do that with Berkshire. I mean, you can’t — literally buy it. You can say you want to buy 14% of the company. It’s going to take you a long, long time.
But, overwhelmingly, large companies in America — well, all of them — they became poker chips. And people were buying and selling like three-day calls or two-day calls. And the more people — times people pull the handle on the machine, the more money the machine makes. I mean, it’s very clear.
And overwhelmingly — I mean, where did the people go? The investors just were sitting around and there weren’t very many, and the money was being made, essentially, by a bunch of people gambling on things. And that enabled us, in a two-week period, to buy 14% of a business that’s been around for decades.
Imagine trying to buy 14% of the farms in two weeks in this country, 14% of the apartment houses, or 14% of the auto dealerships, or just anything, when already 40% were locked up some other place.
It is — it defies anything that Charlie and I have seen, and we’ve seen a lot.
But I’ve never seen that percentage of the American public — essentially, it was a gambling parlor.
And the people that were making money were people that worked with gamblers. (Laughs)
And then it declined very significantly a few weeks ago. You can feel it if you’re around it.
So, when somebody asks a very good question, this, “Why weren’t you doing anything on February 20th, and why were you doing it on — starting, well, in the case of Occidental, on February 28th?” — you know, it’s because things developed in a way —
And in the case of Occidental specifically, they’d had an analyst presentation of some — I don’t know whether it was a quarterly one or what it was exactly — but I read it over a weekend — and that was the weekend when the annual report came out — I read it over a weekend.
And what [CEO] Vicki Hollub was saying made nothing but sense. And I decided that it was a good place to put Berkshire’s money.
And then I found out in the ensuing two weeks — it was there in black and white — there was nothing mysterious about it — but Vicki was saying what the company had gone through and where it was now and what they planned to do with the money.
And she’ll do what — she says she doesn’t know the price of oil next year. Nobody does.
But we decided it made sense. And two weeks later, we had 14% of the company.
And we also already had a preferred stock and warrants. And the story of the preferred stock is we paid 10 billion — preferred stock and warrants — we paid 10 billion for it — and at the end of the March quarter of 2020, we valued that 10 billion — for our 10-Q — we valued it at 5 1/2 billion. So, we had a 4 1/2 billion loss. And it would have — you know —
The world changed. Oil sold for minus $37 a barrel (laughs) one day, and —
Now it’s quite apparent, I think, that we want — we’re very happy — we should be very happy — that we can produce 11 million barrels a day, or something of the sort, in the United States, rather than being able to produce none and having to find 11 million barrels a day somewhere else (laughs) in the world to take care of keeping the American industrial machine working.
Charlie, have you got any comments on that as to how something this crazy could’ve happened?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, it happened — it’s almost a mania of speculation that we now have.
We have computers with algorithms trading against other computers. We’ve got people that know nothing about stocks being advised by stockbrokers, who know even less. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: They understand the commissions, though.
CHARLIE MUNGER: It’s just an incredible, crazy situation.
And it’s weird that we ever got a system, where all this equivalent of a casino activity is all mixed up with a lot of legitimate long-term investment.
I don’t think any wise country would’ve wanted this outcome.
Why would you want your country’s stocks to trade on a casino basis to people who are just like the people that play craps and roulette in the casino? I think it’s crazy.
But it happened. And it’s respectable. Not with me, but with other people. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah — well — and look at — look at what — the country — I mean, they formed the New York Stock Exchange in 1792 under a buttonwood tree. And it really didn’t seem like that was the eureka moment in America.
But just look at what’s happened, using the system for less than — you know — well — you know — three of my lifetimes.
I mean, (laughs) it’s unbelievable. So —
It’s worked. Now, maybe it’s worked in spite of itself — maybe the country — but one way or another, America has worked in an incredible manner.
Nobody could’ve dreamt it. Nobody.
You know, they’d have hauled you away if you said — you know — in three lifetimes — you know — that — you know — this place where we’re meeting — I mean — it became a state in 1867.
But in 1789, if you’d asked Ben Franklin or somebody that was walking out of the Constitutional Convention, “What do you think the prospects are for Nebraska?” (Laughs)
It’s just — it’s unbelievable what’s been accomplished. And it’s been accomplished — the people who encouraged the gambling — they would like to say it’s been accomplished because of the — we’ve got these liquid markets and all these wonderful things.
Charlie would probably say it’s in spite of that. Who knows? (Laughter) But —
The answer is that — well, there isn’t an answer. (Laughter) The —
My wife — when we got married April 19th, 1952 — we got in my aunt’s car and we started driving west. And we ended up — we drove all over the west — but one night we ended up in Las Vegas.
And there were three fellows out there. Eddie — it was Eddie Barrick, and Sam Ziegman, and Jackie Gaughan. And all three of these guys were from Omaha. And they’d bought little pieces of the Flamingo.
Bugsy Siegel had had his career ended rather abruptly — (laughs) — a few years earlier.
CHARLIE MUNGER: By a bullet.
WARREN BUFFETT: But it was a stray bullet, undoubtedly. (Laughter)
In fact, there were probably five or six stray bullets. But in any event, Bugsy was gone.
And some people, including three guys from Omaha, were in the group. Sam Ziegman lived about two blocks from where I live now. He was Stan Lipsey’s uncle. Stan Lipsey ran — for those of you who follow Berkshire — ran The Buffalo News and was our partner for 40 or 50 years later on.
So, all kinds of things intersect.
But I walked into this casino, aged —the Flamingo — it was kind of a motel-like arrangement — and I was 21. And my bride was 19.
And I looked around the room and there were all of these people — and they were better dressed then — it was a more dignified group than, perhaps, currently — but they had flown thousands of miles in some cases — you know — in planes that weren’t as fast as the current ones and were more expensive, probably, on a per-mile basis, adjusted, then.
They’d gone to great lengths to come out to do something that was mathematically unintelligent, and they knew it was unintelligent.
And, I mean, they couldn’t do it fast enough, in terms of rolling the dice, you know, and trying to determine whether they were hot or whatever they may be.
And I looked around at that group. And everybody there knew that they were doing something that was mathematically dumb, and they’d come thousands of miles to do it, and they were —
And I said to my wife, I said, you know, I’m going to get rich. (Laughs) I mean, how can you miss? (Laughs)
If people are willing to do this, you know, this is a land of opportunity.
Well, it’s the way it still is, you know.
And the Flamingo grew to be much bigger. And in Omaha, we’re very proud of Jackie and the things he did. He only died a year or two ago.
He became sort of the leader — spiritual leader — of Vegas.
And, like I say, Sam Ziegman’s nephew went on to save my and Charlie’s investment that we made in Blue Chip and The Buffalo News. (Laughs)
And it’s a very accidental society that occurs.
But there’s nothing stranger than what has happened in finance.
On the other hand, if you go back, perhaps the greatest chapter ever written on the operation of markets, particularly the stock market, is in a book, probably one of the most famous books in economic history, The General Theory, written by John Maynard Keynes. I think it was 1936.
And I don’t know whether it’s chapter — I think it was chapter 12 — but whatever it is, he describes what markets are all about in 1936. And he describes something, in beautiful prose, that explains why the whole country in March of this year was sitting around trading Occidental in some crazy way that enabled us to buy a quarter of what wasn’t owned by four other institutions that weren’t going to sell.
But we could buy a quarter of it. And we could’ve bought a lot more. I mean — you just wondered if there was anybody that really was thinking about investment. If you —
Going back to investing, I mean, investing is laying out money now with the hope of getting back more later on. It’s really laying out purchasing power now with the hope of getting more purchasing power back.
But that’s the reason you’d — and, you know, that’s the way you learn in the textbooks, that you defer consumption now so you can consume more later on, so that you can take care of your family — all these things about how investment takes place.
And that is what happens with farms. I mean, if somebody buys a farm and they, generally, they ultimately leave it to their kids or they got it from their parents.
And, I mean, they don’t sit there every day and, you know, get quotes 15 times a day and say, you know, I’d like to get a call — I’d like to sell a put, you know, on the guy’s farm next to me. And you can have a call on mine. And then I’ll have something called a straddle or a strangle, or whatever it may be. And, you know, they just —
They go about making the farm worth more money. And they do the same thing if they’ve got an auto dealership. And they do the same thing, you know, if they’ve got an apartment house. They look to improve it and attract tenants, all those kind of things. And —
Forty — what would it be? — 40 trillion at least, you know, of the ownership of all of the American business — people treat it as poker chips or pulling the handle.
And they’ve got systems set up so that if you want to buy a three-day call on a stock, you can do it. And they make more money selling you calls than if you buy stocks. So, they teach you on calls. (Laughs)
Nobody’s going around selling calls on farms or anything of the sort.
But that’s why markets do crazy things. And occasionally, Berkshire gets a chance to do something. And it’s —
It’s not because we’re smart. It’s because we’re — the only thing I can say we’re qualified on —and sometimes I wonder about that — but I think we’re sane. You know, I mean, and that’s the main requirement in this business.
And — Charlie?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I don’t think we have ever had anything quite like what we have now, in terms of the volumes and pure gambling activity that go on daily, and the people lathering the gamblers up so they can rook them.
And it’s not pretty. And I don’t find it rich in glory for capitalism or anything, anymore than a bunch of people throwing dice at a table. What good does that do the rest of the world?
WARREN BUFFETT: It’s a great way to become rich, though, just figure out ways to insert yourself into the system somehow.
And, you know, jobs to some extent self-select. And many years ago — and I’ve got all kinds of friends on Wall Street — not as many as I had before I had started talking this way an hour or so ago. But I really do. I know —
People make — they make lots of decisions in life. And the truth is that, overall, the American system has worked extremely well. It’s may be very unfair, in many ways.
But it has produced incredible difference in the goods and services available to me versus what my grandfather had available, you know.
I do not want to go back to pre-air conditioning and people pouring whiskey down me while they drill my teeth or something of the sort, or any of that. I mean, this is a lot better world. And —
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I think we’ve made more because of the crazy gambling. I think it’s made it easier for us, net, over the decades we’ve been operating.
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I mean, and we’ve depended on it.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: I mean, we depend on mispriced businesses through a mechanism where we’re not responsible for the mispricing of them. And overall, we learned something a long time ago, that it doesn’t take a high IQ. It doesn’t take anything. It just takes the right attitude.
We may talk more about that later, but I think we ought to prove that we’ve got an audience here by going to section one. (Laughs)
11. We’d like to buy businesses outside the U.S., but they’re harder to find
OLA POLEM: Good morning. My name is Ola Polem (PH). I live in Hanover, Germany. This is my first time in Omaha.
My question is on Berkshire buying entire companies outside the U.S. There were a few, Iscar, probably the first one. Louis, in Germany.
My question is, would you only answer calls from them if you’re interested in? Or would you proactively approach them if they would like to sell their company?
WARREN BUFFETT: I would — we actually made a few trips. I think maybe Charlie went with me on one of them. We tried to stir up interest and all that sort of thing in Berkshire around the world. We probably did that 20 years or 25 years ago.
During that period — that I showed you — that burst of action we had, we probably spent — we probably at least 5 billion of that — yeah, maybe pretty — in the area of 5 billion of it — we bought three German securities.
We bought two — well, we bought one — in Japan. We rounded up on some of the holdings we already had there.
We would love them to buy, but we — they don’t think of us as quickly there. I mean, I don’t have somebody that’s going to send me an email about a company that I’ve been following for 60 years and I know I can see them in New York and, you know, I can name a number to them, and if he likes it, he can take it to his board and so on.
It just doesn’t happen that way. We haven’t had that experience in — well, anywhere outside the United States.
Now, you can say with 40 trillion here, you know, we should be able to find something here (laughs) a little closer to home.
But we don’t have any bias against doing it. We —
There are companies, you know, we’d buy in 10 minutes if we had somebody on the other end that could do business in 10 minutes.
It’s much more complicated in certain countries than in the United States to purchase businesses, and there are certain rules.
But obviously this — you know, we got a call — whenever it was — many years ago, on our company in Germany. And actually, the two fellows that run it are probably here in the audience. I saw them yesterday. And they’re marvelous. And they run the business. And, you know — they’re as trustworthy as — well, all the pictures were up on the movie we showed before this meeting started here. You know —
We have so much trouble finding good ideas that we can’t afford to ignore any. But they do have to be sizable now. I mean, there really isn’t — there isn’t a lot of —
I love the operation we bought in Germany, and it’s just a pleasure to be associated with the people there. I just wish we could add another zero to all the figures and it was a much larger deal.
It’s not going to have an economic impact on Berkshire. But they love it. They care. You can see it. You can feel it. And that’s the kind of business we’d like to have, and we’re very happy we’ve got it in Berkshire. But we can’t do it one (unintelligible) of Louis at a time.
And we would never, never sell an operation like that, ever. I’m looking at you, Greg. (Laughs)
The — you know — but if — if we get a call tomorrow and we could make a deal that involves 10 or 20 billion dollars that was in Germany or France or Britain or Japan — or name a whole group of countries — we’d do it.
We bought the interest in the five leading trading companies in Japan a couple years ago. And I rounded them up a little bit. But I told them originally we weren’t going to but a lot of — we weren’t going to change our positions materially without their OK.
So, we actually, I think, rounded the 5.85% — based on the latest figures we had then — of all five of them. And that was a good many hundreds of millions, or maybe a billion or two, to work. So, we will, you know —
President Kennedy said we’ll pay any price, climb any hills, you know — (laughs) — whatever it may be — to find businesses.
But we actually prefer it when they fall into our lap, like getting a letter from somebody you hadn’t heard from for a couple of years, and you know what you’d pay for the business. And you know if the board of directors of that company regards it as attractive, they’ll be happy to buy it. And they know you’re going to show up at the closing and that you’re not going to pile debt on it or change things or anything.
They’ve got an answer, and then you have to see if they’ve got the question in their mind is what’s the best thing for Alleghany Corp? And in that case, we had $11 billion less at the end of the day — or the end of the dinner — than we had at the start of the day.
So, opportunity can be any place. And we do have a terrific operation, for example, in Israel, I mean, just terrific. And it’s pretty good size.
Would we like to have another one like it? Yeah, I just don’t know where the other one is. Charlie?
12. Defense of stock repurchases, at the right price
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, but think in the scheme of things, imagine buying in $60 billion worth of our own stock. We like the businesses. We like the price we’re paying. No overhead, no cost, no nothing, just more interest in what we already owned. It isn’t that we’re totally wasting our time.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, and if you look at it, there are — you can read hundreds of thousands — maybe millions of words — written on stock repurchases, and what this is and what that is and all this kind of thing. It’s not very complicated. (Laughs)
I mean, if you had a partner in a lemonade stand and they wanted to sell out — sell their interest — or two partners and one of them wanted to sell their interest — I mean — and the business had the money to buy it — our little lemonade stand — and they were offering at a price that was good for the other two people who are going to remain, you’d buy it.
Now, the thing that’s fascinating to me is what you can accomplish, and still — people don’t pay any attention to it.
We owned — in 1998, you know — this was more than 20 years ago — we owned about 150 million — I don’t know whether they’ve split — whatever it is — if they’ve split, it’s split-adjusted — but we owned 150 million shares of American Express.
I think we bought our last share in 1998 or something like that.
And we then owned 11.2% of the American Express company — wonderful company.
And since then, they’ve sent us a check every quarter as a dividend. And so, we’ve taken some cash a little bit as they’ve gone along.
And now we own 20% of American Express. Now, that’s what’s happened because they repurchased shares. That happens to have worked out extremely well. If they overpaid for the stock and all that — it doesn’t solve every problem — but it’s a wonderful thing if you’ve got an asset you like and they take your ownership interest up.
And like I say, we’ve gone from 11.2% to 20%. And if you’re using your American card — or whatever it may be — 20% of whatever earnings — contribute a little to our interest that used to be 11.2%, and we’ve done it without putting up any money.
Now, imagine — imagine if you owned a farm, and you had 640 acres, and you farmed it every year, and you made a little money on it, and you enjoyed farming.
And somehow, 20 or so years later, it had turned into 11-hundred or 12-hunred acres. I mean, you’d say, you know, how long has this been going on? You know, what could possibly be? — you know, is this un-American? — or whatever it may be. I mean, is it, you know, sensible use of the (unintelligible) cost of capital? Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
If you do it at the right price, there’s nothing better than buying in your own business.
We owned — I mentioned and used Apple as an example of how our interest in Apple, you know — every time a company that earns a hundred billion a year — you know — it means that our interest in it goes up a tenth of a percent. You know, we’ve added another a hundred million to earnings.
Well, I mean, it takes a lot of work (laughs) — a hundred million in earnings. And, you know, in the first quarter they just reported — they’re on a fiscal year — but they just reported their March quarter — and, you know, they earned more money and they had fewer shares outstanding.
And we actually bought a little more Apple, in the first quarter or so. We decided we wanted to own a greater interest. And on top of that, we knew that we would own an even greater interest if they kept buying in their shares, which — we didn’t have any insider information or anything — but certainly, it would seem the way to bet.
And, you know, we feel better because we bought the shares we bought in the market. And we feel (laughs) just as good as the fact — by the fact — they used their cash to buy out some of the other people.
It is the simplest thing in the world, and then I read all this stuff.
It is unbelievable how people can’t figure out something that, you know, if they owned a farm and the guy next to them had a farm and somehow you were getting more of his farm all the time without putting up any money while you farmed your own farm — that at least, you know, you’re using some of the earnings for that — you’d feel very good about it.
Have you got any explanation for it, Charlie?
13. ‘Ridiculous’ to have to split chairman and CEO roles
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I have another thing that interests me in the present scene.
We get all these suggestions from index funds, a letter saying we — the chairman and the chief executive officer are the same person, and that they have some professor somewhere that thinks that American business would work better if it had a separate — if Warren could split — we could split him in two and have each half work.
And to me it’s the most ridiculous criticism I’ve ever heard. It would be like — it would be like — Odysseus would come back from winning the battle in Troy and so forth, and some guy would say, I don’t like the way you were holding your spear when you won that battle. (Laughter)
And it’s some guy that’s never run any business and doesn’t know anything. I don’t think too much of this activity. (Applause)
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, let’s see. Somewhere in here — I may find it at some point. Ah, here it is.
We wrote in the annual report — in the third paragraph of a nine-page report — we said, “We’re going to treat everybody the same.” It may be a crazy concept we have, but we really feel that somebody that gave us their savings in 1960 or 1970 or 1980 and just left them with us, and trusted us, we feel that they’re entitled to the same sort of respect and attention that somebody that, you know, is accumulating, like crazy, assets under management and gets paid based on assets under management, that knows that they just need to have policies that essentially are popular in Washington.
The only thought they have is that Washington sometimes says that, you’re getting too damn big and we’re going to do something about you.
So, they try to be very sure that they’re doing things that people will cheer.
So anyway, I say, “Well, we’re going to treat you all alike.” We’ve got three million people — or shareholders — out there. We’re going to treat you all alike.
And on March 25th, about a month after I wrote that letter — it’s in the third paragraph, you’d think that they would get that far — that they had 101 million B shares — i mean, now, somebody ought to read to the third paragraph.
But anyway, we get a letter that says, “We would like to meet with you in advance of Berkshire Hathaway’s 2022 Annual Meeting of Shareholders to discuss Berkshire Hathaway’s perspective on governance and sustainability.”
Well, I have written probably more on that that’s been honestly written by the guy that runs the company. But why in hell would they think that we should meet with them and not you people all individually (laughs) that come here? (Applause)
I grew up in a very, very, very Republican household, but I feel like, you know, some raving populist or something.
But I just can’t imagine — well, anyway. You’ve heard it. (Laughter)
And, you know, somebody gets paid to — well, there’s a lot of people I’m sure in public relations and they hire advisors, because it looks better if they have advisors that tell them whether the chairman and the CEO should be the same person or not, and those people get paid for it. And then they discuss it at their board meeting and then, you know —
In the end, believe me, if 90% of Congress for some reason felt it was better to have the chairman and the CEO be the same person, the index funds (laughs) would not be writing those letters, because all they have to worry about is whether for some reason people start wondering why some institution should have 10% of the votes in every major corporation in the country.
And I like the idea of index funds. But it is interesting to watch where incentives and bureaucracy, and whatever it may be, lead people.
The guy that wrote me the letter’s probably a very nice guy. That’s his job.
Well, anyway, they didn’t get a special meeting. And you people are here, and we appreciate the fact you’re here. (Applause)
14. BNSF improvements will take time
WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Back to Becky.
BECKY QUICK: This question’s for Ajit and Greg. It comes from Ben Nall (PH), who’s a shareholder of 30 years. He’s a Nebraska native, and he says he’ll be attending the meeting here today.
“BNSF and GEICO appear to be losing ground to their two primary competitors, Union Pacific and Progressive.
“Over the past several years UP’s operating ratio has been about 400 basis points better than BNSF’s.
“And Progressive has grown faster while maintaining a lower combined ratio than GEICO. On an operating basis, UP’s [Union Pacific] precision scheduled railroading and Progressive’s telematics appear to have jumped ahead of the Berkshire businesses.”
He wants to know what Greg and Ajit are doing to address those business challenges.
GREG ABEL: Want me to go first? OK. Thank you, Becky.
Let me just start by saying when we think of BNSF, we have an exceptional franchise here and a great business.
And we do compete with other railways, and we’re very well aware of how they operate, including their operating ratios and the metrics they operate to and precision railroading.
And it’s all part of it. But what I would share with is when I think of BNSF, we start with focusing on our customer, understanding how we can best service them, and, yes, we want to do it in an efficient and effective way that delivers great results back to our shareholders.
And that will continue to be our focus. So, yes, we learn from all the metrics they report and how they operate their rail, and we observe it. But I would put our team up right beside them on any operating day. And we’re going to move our rail cars as well as any other rail company in America. And we’re going to do it on behalf of our customers.
So, we’re very proud, but we’re not ignoring the fact that there’s more to be done, both operationally and for our customers.
So, we’ll continue to see improvement there. We’ve got a great leadership team there. We’ve got a great employee group within BNSF. And what I like is we’re just going to see long-term improvement there.
We have an exceptional inner-modal franchise out of the west. It’s incredibly valuable to our shareholders long term, our partners.
And that’s what our team is focused on, building that franchise out.
So, couldn’t be more proud of where we’re at, but we also know we have a journey ahead of us. And we’re going to continue to get better and better.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Greg, if we were offered the opportunity, would you trade our operation for theirs?
GREG ABEL: Never. Never. And we love our--
CHARLIE MUNGER: He knows a lot about it, Phil. (Laughs)
GREG ABEL: We have a great franchise, and we have a great leadership team running it. So well said, Charlie. Thank you.
WARREN BUFFETT: And just before we go to Ajit — and Greg, you know, was a major partner for 20 years, more or less, a little over that, since we bought the energy company. And his boss was David Sokol. And the two of them, I mean, they knew how to run businesses.
It isn’t like we don’t read what other numbers are and all that. But we’ve got the perfect person running in Katie Farmer. We’ve got the perfect person running BNSF. And, you know, she’ll do a great job.
Changing around a railroad in various ways, you know — if you’ve got 21,000-or-something miles of owned track and all kinds of other — that doesn’t count sidings and double tracking — and you’ve got a lot of things to do from something that they started building a couple of hundred years ago — not quite a couple hundred — and you can’t move things around very (Laughter) easily. And towns grew.
You know, when you came into Omaha in 1862, well, the railroad didn’t even go across the river, I mean, even though we’d become a major rail center for the West, or the opening to the West.
And we’re going to be here a hundred years from now. We will be an important, a really vital, asset of the country. And it will be a very big part — very important part — of Berkshire.
And we will take what is an incredible assemblage, I think, of 300-and-some railroads or something over time.
And, you know, the tracks got laid, and the routes laid out, you know, 150 years ago. The world changes, but we have to adapt to it.
But you don’t put an order out to change a thousand miles of track in hours, or how it’s operated or anything of the sort.
So, we’re running it to have that asset for Berkshire shareholders, and it will redound to the benefit of the country that we do it.
No matter who ran it, it would be important — obviously enormously — to the country. And the UP will be here at that time, too.
And it’ll be a better railroad a hundred years from now than it is now. But I can’t promise you what will happen if we get flooding or something in the next few months.
You know, it can wipe out a lot of the plans you have and disrupt lots of lives and disrupt lots of shipments.
And there are no magic wands in railroading to make great changes. On the other hand, you ought to be working at it every day to make it better.
I forget how many bridges we have, but some years ago we were spending 3 or 4 billion dollars a year on capital expenditures. And [former BNSF CEO] Matt Rose — I said, this is a lot of money to spend, you know, keeping up a railroad. And then he said, well, we’re going to have to do that more, and so on.
And I said, well, I said, I can handle this part. I’m not sure if Charlie can. (Laughs) I have to explain these numbers to him.
So, the next bridge they bought — they built — they called the Charles T. Munger Bridge. So, you can actually (laughter) go see, our railroad has the Charles T. Munger Bridge, because Charlie kind of was asking similar questions 10 years ago.
15. GEICO adopting telematics to compete with Progressive
WARREN BUFFETT: Ajit?
AJIT JAIN: OK. Thank you, Becky.
There’s no question that the personal automobile insurance business is a very competitive business.
Having said that, both GEICO and Progressive are two very successful competitors in this segment. Each one of them have their plusses and minuses.
But having said that, there’s no question that more recently, Progressive has done a much better job than GEICO, as you point out, both in terms of margins and in terms of growth rate.
There are a number of causes for that, but I think the biggest culprit as far as Geico is concerned, and again, you rightly pointed out, is telematics.
Progressive has been on the telematics bandwagon for, I don’t know, more than 10 years, probably closer to 20 years.
GEICO, until recently, wasn’t involved in telematics. And it’s been only the last two years that they’ve made a very serious effort, in terms of using telematics for segmentation and for trying to match rate and risk.
It’s a long journey. But the journey has started, and the initial results are promising.
It’ll take a while, but my hope and expectation is that hopefully in the next year or two, Geico will be in a position to catch up with Progressive, in terms of telematics. And hopefully that’ll then translate into both growth rate and margins.
WARREN BUFFETT: Charlie, you got anything? (Applause)
16. State Farm’s success refutes what they teach in business schools
WARREN BUFFETT: It’s very interesting. I mean, the auto insurance industry is a fascinating one to study, in that the largest auto insurance company now — and we’re talking 2022 — and, you know, Henry Ford — I mean, it was 1903, you know, or something when — when cars really got started.
And it wasn’t too many years after that that he was turning out two million cars a year. Imagine that. You know, one guy, two million cars a year is a lot of cars.
So, car insurance became very important after hundreds of years of when people thought about insurance, it was ships at sea and fire, where they had protective societies.
And insurance is a product that’s been around a long time. But auto insurance has been pretty much the same thing since Leo Goodwin started GEICO in 1936.
And we came along with a good idea, and lots of big companies and all that.
But the largest auto insurance company in the United States was started over in Illinois by a guy that didn’t know anything about insurance, particularly.
And it’s a mutual company. It’s not supposed to succeed in capitalism. I mean, you know, if you go to business school, they teach you that only because you have incentives and compensation, and all kinds of things, can a company succeed.
Well, nobody’s really gotten rich off State Farm. They’re just out there —
And they are the largest insurance company. While Leo Goodwin started 80-some years ago, and he probably wanted to get rich. And probably at Progressive, you know, people wanted to get rich. And at Travelers and Aetna — and you can name off dozens and dozens of companies.
And who wins? You know, a mutual company.
In terms of present size, they still are the largest company. They have — if you leave out Berkshire — they’ve got the largest net worth, by far. I think they’ve got 140 billion or something like that of net worth. You know, and —
Progressive had a very, very, very smart guy running it for a very long period of time. They got very smart people running it now.
But they have a net worth that’s 1/6 that of what some people over in Illinois that nobody knows the name of (laughs) have after years. And they’ve had the time to sell the same product, and they advertise like crazy.
We spend $2 billion a year telling people the same thing we’ve been telling them for 70 or 80 years, you know.
The policy doesn’t change. But when we get all through, State Farm’s still doing more business than anybody. And it shouldn’t exist under capitalism, you know.
If you went there with a plan to start a State Farm today and have it compete with Progressive, you know, who would put up the capital? (Laughs)
I mean, a mutual company that you’re not going to get the profits from? It doesn’t make any sense at all, except they’ve got 140 billion or something like that of net worth.
And Progressive, I don’t know what their net worth is, but it must be somewhere around 20-or-so billion, and I haven’t looked for a long time. Their net worth in the first —
Incidentally, I mean, they are very, very, very disciplined in underwriting. And of course, on the investment side, their net worth dropped in the first quarter, because they own a lot of bonds.
And they say, well — probably everybody in the insurance business would say — that well, we own bonds because that’s what people do. (Laughs)
And here’s half the business where you do what people do and the other times — the other half — the businesses, you spend all kinds of time trying to analyze in every county and every single way you can segregate and properly rate business and all of that.
And, you know, basically [former Progressive chairman] Peter Lewis sat in my office 40 years — yeah, 40 years ago — and he’s smart as hell. And, you know, this guy was clearly going to be a major competitor of Berkshire’s. And he knew insurance backwards and forwards and very bright and everything.
But he just ignored the investment side, and that was as important as (laughs) the underwriting side.
And it is interesting how organizations function and have — what I would say are, to some extent — blind spots.
And of course, Charlie and I know we’ve got all kinds of blind spots ourselves.
And so, we have to be kind of careful of criticizing other people for having them. (Laughs) It is —
The auto insurance business ought to be studied in business school, because it essentially refutes so many of the things they’re presently teaching. So that’s my suggestion today to business schools. OK. (Laughs)
And thanks, Ajit. You couldn’t — Ajit is responsible for adding more value to Berkshire than the total net worth of Progressive. That’s not to knock Progressive, I’m just saying one guy. (Applause)
17. “We haven’t ever timed anything”
WARREN BUFFETT: OK, station two.
RAJID ERDUWAL: Hello, Warren and Charlie. It is great to see you both and the wonderful Berkshire managers. Our thanks for everything that you do.
My name is Rajid Erduwal (PH), and I am from New Jersey. My question is on market timing. You have always said that it is impossible to time the markets.
Yet if we look at your track record, you have had amazing timings with some of your key decisions.
You got out of the stock markets in 1969 and 1970. You got back in 1972, ’74, when the markets were really cheap. You did the same thing in ’87, ’99, 2000.
And today we are sitting on a significant amount of cash when the markets are going down.
My question is how do you time the big market moves so well?
WARREN BUFFETT: We’d like to offer you a job first. (Laughter)
RAJID ERDUWAL: I will take it. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: The interesting thing is, you know, obviously we haven’t the faintest idea what the stock market is going to do when it opens on Monday. We never have had. We have never made —
Charlie and I — I don’t think in all the time we’ve worked together — and I’ll tell you something later on maybe about how learning takes place — but we have never — I don’t think we’ve ever made a decision where either one of us has either said or been thinking, we should buy or sell based on what the market’s going to do.
CHARLIE MUNGER: No.
WARREN BUFFETT: Or for that matter, on what the economy’s going to do. We don’t know.
And the interesting thing is, sometimes I get some credit some place for the fact that, you know, how wonderful it was that we were optimistic in 2008 when everybody was down on stocks and all that sort of thing.
You know, we spent a big percentage of our net worth at a very dumb time. (Laughs)
I shouldn’t say we, it’s I.
We spent about 15 or 16 billion dollars — which was a lot bigger to us then than it is now — we spent it in the last few weeks, over a period of three or four weeks — between Wrigley and Goldman Sachs and generally — at a terrible time, as it turned out.
I mean, I didn’t know whether it was going to be a good time or a bad time, but it was a really dumb time.
And I wrote an article for The New York Times, “Buy American,” and all these things.
Well, if I’d had any sense of timing and waited six months until — I think the low was in March — and in fact I think I was on CNBC maybe that day, or something.
But I totally missed that opportunity. I totally missed, you know, in March of 2020.
We have not been good at timing. We’ve been reasonably good at figuring out when we were getting enough for our money. And we had no idea when we bought anything — well, we always hoped it would go down for a while so we could buy more, and we hoped even after we were done buying and ran out of money that if it was cheap the company would keep buying, in effect, taking our interest up.
I mean, that’s stuff you can learn it in fourth grade. But it’s not what’s taught in school.
And so never give us any credit. Well, actually, give us all the credit. I mean, go out and tell everybody how smart we are, but we aren’t. (Laughter)
We haven’t ever timed anything. We’ve never figured out insights into the economy.
I mean, when I was 11 years old, March 12th, I guess, 1942 — or March 11th — you know, I bought stock when the Dow was 90 — well, it was 101 in the morning — It was 99 at the end of the day I think — and, you know, now it’s 34,000, or maybe it’s 1,000 less than it was on Thursday. (Laughter)
But, you know, it’s one decision that it’s a good thing to own American business.
And, you know, if the Harvard endowment had come to see me as an 11-year-old, (laughs) you know, or General Motors’ pension fund or something and, you know, they say, well, no, but we have to have a balance. And we have to maybe have 60%. And then we have to sit around every three months and listen to a bunch of managers.
They’d have just done better if they’d just taken some darts and thrown them and just said, we’re going to be in America 50 years from now and 100 years from now, and we’ll do better in stocks than we will in bonds.
It’s amazing how hard people make what a simple game it is.
But of course, if they told everybody what a simple game it was then 90% of the income or more of the people that were speaking would disappear.
So, it’s really a little too much of us to expect of human nature that people will explain why they really aren’t adding any value to what you can do by yourself.
Or actually, you’re, you know — I hate to use the example — but you can have monkeys throwing darts at the page. And, you know, take away the management fees and everything, I’ll bet on the monkeys.
But I don’t consider them a superior species. And I don’t want them to move next-door instead of my next-door neighbor or (laughs) anything, but it’s just the way it has to be.
Charlie, do you have anything cheerful to say? (Laughter)
18. “Capitalism is very peculiar in how it dishes out rewards”
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, frequently in the wealth advisory business, the way it used to be, you go to your investment advisor, you say, what should I do to protect myself for the future?
And he says, why don’t you give me $50,000 of your net worth now? That’s my contribution to your future. (Laughter)
It’s a peculiar business. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, and it’s a great play because you (unintelligible) rich. It’s still a —
If you have a son or daughter that really wants to make money per point of IQ, and per erg of energy, and all of that, well, tell them to go to Wall Street. I mean, don’t have them enter the priesthood or anything.
I mean, if that’s what they want. It self-selects. And it always will be the case.
I mean, there’s no reason to despair about humanity because they behave in their self-interest. They may not actually be behaving in their self-interest over time, but they — you know, are they happier? Who the hell knows?
But if they just want to make money —
Well, people here in the auditorium saw a little session from the Salomon [Brothers] episode.
And Gerry Corrigan was then the head of the New York Fed, and that same committee was grilling him. And they said, Mr. Corr — they were giving him a hard time — and they said, who was the highest — they said something to this effect, that — who’s the highest paid guy at Solomon last year?
And he said, well, and he named him — maybe he named him — and he just said he got — I forget whether it was 20 million last year — and we’re talking 1991 now, too — he said, maybe he got 20 million.
And the guy says, well, how old is he? And, you know, he said, well, I think he’s — Corrigan said —something to the effect of, he’s, you know, 26, or something like that.
And then Corrigan couldn’t resist saying, and he can’t even throw a football. (Laughter)
And the truth was, you know — now, there’s a lot more money in throwing a football now than there used to be.
You know, one of my heroes was Ted Williams. You know, I think he was making 20 or 25 thousand dollars a year.
You know, just imagine today some guy that bats .230 or .240, you know, and if he makes it to the bigs, I mean, the money flows in.
And of course, those peoples should sit down and thank the fact that the stadium that could hold 30,000 or 40,000 people and was the source of revenue for the people who pay their paychecks, that stadium went from 30,000 to 40,000, because somebody first invented television and they came up with cable television and they came up with pay and all that sort of thing.
And nobody knows the names of those people. But capitalism is very, very, very peculiar in how it dishes out rewards.
And for a while it was better to be in Wall Street than be a .220 or .230 hitter in the bigs.
And, you know, it is now reversed because of the development of TV, et cetera.
So, it’s a crazy world. Rewards seem very, very, very, very capricious, and they are.
And they don’t seem to any theologian, or even to Charlie and me in our spare time, the whole thing seems kind of crazy.
But it’s worked awfully well. And even the people who don’t take advantage — get short-changed by the system — are doing far, far better than if the system hadn’t gotten changed.
Doesn’t mean that you necessarily shouldn’t work for change, but you should recognize the limitations of what you can do with humans, put it that way.
OK. Charlie, is there any way you’d like to close the sermon? (Laughs)
19. You should be a better person in the second half of your life
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I do think we have a very interesting phenomenon, in —
I would argue that in a lot of the wealth advisory business, people are charging for skill and delivering closet indexization.
In other words, nobody can stand being that different from the crowd and results. They’re afraid they’ll lose their fees. So, everybody does the same thing. It’s mildly ridiculous.
The world is mildly ridiculous. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. But as Charlie pointed out in the movie, which only the people here saw that, that before we were married, you know, we tried to convince a couple of young women that we were really more attractive than we were. I mean — (Laughs)
You can’t expect people not to behave in their self-interest. And that was very important, that we didn’t disclose all of our weaknesses before the marriage. So —
CHARLIE MUNGER: Warren and I are trying to be a little better. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, that was true--
CHARLIE MUNGER: We may fail a little. And I don’t know about you, but I’ve slightly improved since I was 17. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, well — (Laughter)
That’s a really interesting point, because if fortune has just showered you with all kinds of good things you ought to be a better person in the second half of your life than the first half. I mean, that really should not be asking too much of people.
If they’ve won the ovarian lottery, and they’re born in the United States, and all kinds of good things have happened to them, and you’ve had a chance to see how stupid you were and all kinds of things you did, you know, why not have the second half of your life be better than the first half?
I would say — working from a very low base — but, I mean, I’m not nearly, you know, by any intelligence test or ability to do any of that, you know, I haven’t learned anything. But you do learn certain things only by interacting with people.
And you don’t know, when you’re two years old, no matter how much you’re picking up all kinds of knowledge from the world, the learning machine that’s going on in a two-year-old’s head is just unbelievable.
But it’s not the same as having 30 or 40 years of experience with actually how the human animal behaves, which is really, you know, you’re learning all the time about it.
But that should make you a better person in the second half of your life than the first half.
And I would say that if you say you’re a better person in the second half and have got reason to say it in the first half, you know, forget about the first half. (Laughs)
Enjoy the second half.
And both Charlie and I have had the luxury of A, living a long time so we get to play, what we would regard as the hopeful and respectable second half.
And we have had enough sense to figure out — well, we figured out what makes us happy. And we’ve gotten somewhat more sensitive to what can make other people unhappy and all that sort of thing.
And I’d rather be judged by the second half of my life than the first half, and so would Charlie.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, of course.
WARREN BUFFETT: OK.
CHARLIE MUNGER: I’m very — I don’t even look at what I did when I was young because it would embarrass me. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. OK.
Any of you who wish to quiz Charlie on specifics can do so later. (Laughter)
20. Berkshire can’t protect against risk of nuclear weapons
WARREN BUFFETT: Becky.
BECKY QUICK: This question is, there’s a two-part question. It’s for Warren and Ajit on the first part and for Greg on the second. It comes from Roger Cleffman (PH).
He says, “Several years ago Mr. Buffett was quoted that a nuclear attack is the greatest risk to Berkshire Hathaway Insurance.
“Given the present circumstances, what would the fallout be on Berkshire Hathaway Insurance if a nuclear event occurred in the populated world?
“And then secondly, for Greg, has Berkshire Hathaway Energy suffered any physical or cyberattacks? And irrespective of that, has any special hardening of security been put into place?”
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Well, the first half, every day since August of 1945 — and accelerating dramatically when a second large country had the ability to kill millions of people — which has been magnified by an incredible factor through this, that there is a risk every day.
It’s a very, very tiny risk. Nut as Ajit will, or anybody at this table could tell you, if you roll — well, they had a pair of dice out at the Desert Inn in Las Vegas for a while under a glass thing. And some guy had thrown 32 passes in a row. And I don’t know, maybe the odds are eight million to one against that or four million to one — four billion to one against it.
But, you know, if you just keep rolling the dice, you know, everything will happen. I mean, if you get 330 million Americans out tomorrow, every American says, heads or tails, and they do it every day, after 10 days, you know, you’ve got 330,000 of them that have called the flip 10 times in a row.
And if you do it 10 more days, you’ve still got a bunch of people who’ve done it 20 times in a row. And they really think they have learned how to control the flip.
Well, the answer is the world is flipping a coin every day as to whether people who can literally destroy the planet as we know it, you know, will do it.
And unfortunately, the major problem is with people that have large stocks of nuclear weapons and ICBMs.
And when they talk about using tactile [tactical] nuclear weapons because somebody will be upset because they’re losing a war, I mean, does anybody think that somebody that’s willing to kill, you know, hundreds of thousands of people with tactile weapons, you know, why do they stop?
It is a very, very, very, very dangerous world. And —
CHARLIE MUNGER: But we don’t have any way of —
WARREN BUFFETT: No —
CHARLIE MUNGER: — protecting —
WARREN BUFFETT: There’s no way to pro —
CHARLIE MUNGER: — against a big nuclear attack.
I know a man who said, I know what I’m going to do if there’s a nuclear war. I’m going to crawl under the table and kiss my ass goodbye. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, yeah. And Charlie’s in charge of loss control at Berkshire. (Laughter)
We have no solution for it.
CHARLIE MUNGER: No, we don’t.
WARREN BUFFETT: And there isn’t any solution for it.
And, you know, it’s extraordinary when you think about it, in August of 1939 — September 1st is, you know, when Hitler moved into Poland — but nobody really knew that much about it here. I mean, you know, the news you got you got from the news reel you went to because the theater was air conditioned, you know, or something.
So, if I went to the movies — which you wanted to do in the summer because it was air conditioned in August of — well, September 1st in the case of the actual movement into Poland — but, you know, it was a few people on a screen and some guy with an authoritative voice telling you that German forces just moved into Poland and a picture of a few tanks, maybe. And it was over in a minute.
Now of course all day, every day you see people dying who you very much empathize with, and it could be you instead of them. And it’s just so different.
But in August of 1939, there was a letter sent to President [Franklin] Roosevelt about a month ahead of time.
And why did he get that letter? He got the letter because Hitler was so anti-Semitic, basically.
He drove all the Jews that could see it coming out of Germany. And among them were some great scientists.
And Leo Szilard, who was obviously from Hungary, from somehow he got driven out. Einstein got driven out.
And Leo Szilard lands eventually in the United States. And he writes a letter to tell the president of the United States, Franklin D. Roosevelt, that there’s a bunch of uranium moving different ways or whatever it may be. I don’t know anything about physics, zero. I don’t know about the off and on sign of it.
But in any event, I know what the letter did. Because he writes a letter and says, you know, something big may happen in physics and America better get to it first.
But then he has the problem of, how do I get it to Roosevelt? You know, Leo Szilard, who’s he to the president of the United States?
So, he figures if he gets Einstein to cosign it that the president will pay attention. And he’s right. So (laughs) he goes and gets Einstein and the two of them send the letter.
And they send it to Roosevelt. And they wouldn’t necessarily have been in the United States if Hitler hadn’t had the crazy views about Jews, basically.
And so anyway, that letter went, and we developed the atom bomb before anybody else did.
And it was a very, very fortunate development that Leo Szilard and Einstein happened to end up in the United States rather than perhaps be someplace else. Who knows?
But the accidents of history — and there’s going to be more accidents in connection with atomic weapons.
You know, we’ve come close for various times. I mean, we had the geese flying over, you know, somewhere up north and NORAD gets a crazy signal.
And we’ve had wrong training tapes placed over in the Soviet Union or some, you know, and it looks like things are going on.
We can’t do anything about it. And that is one risk that Berkshire absolutely has no interest in, even though you can say everybody in the world should have an interest. But it doesn’t do us any good — you know, the feeling is that it doesn’t do us any good to think about it.
But that doesn’t stop the fact that there are two powers in the world that, through miscalculation of the other’s intentions, through all kinds of things, you know, have come close in the past. And Charlie and I lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis.
And, you know, we knew there was some chance that weapons of mass destruction would be used.
And believe me that there’s a lot more bad that can happen.
And humanity has not really come up with a counterforce to technology. I mean, back in the caveman ages, if you were a sociopath or something, you threw a rock at the guy in the next cave, you know, or something. I mean, it was sort of proportional.
And we kept developing, and there was this breakthrough where technology has totally outrun humanity. And we’ll see what happens. But so far so good.
And Berkshire does not have an answer, though. There are certain things we don’t write policies on because we wouldn’t be able to make good on them anyway, you know, for that matter.
And everybody would know we wouldn’t be able to make good on them.
You have that risk, and there’s nothing Berkshire can protect you against. And we’ve been very lucky so far.
Ajit, do you ever get any questions, in terms of —
AJIT JAIN: In addition to all what Warren has said, in terms of the chance of something like this happening, the additional thing that concerns me about a nuclear situation is my — my lack of ability to really estimate what our real exposure is in the event of a nuclear event.
When you’re talking about, you know, other big exposures we have: earthquake and hurricane and cyber, I can, with some reasonable degree of accuracy, have a point of view in terms of how large our exposures can be, and how big our loss can be.
When it comes a nuclear thing, you know, I sort of surrender.
You know, it’s very difficult for us to estimate how bad “bad” can be.
Very many different lines of exposures will be affected by it. And even though, in almost all our kind of contracts, we try and exclude nuclear as a covered peril, nevertheless, if something like that were to happen, I’m fairly positive that the regulators and the courts will hold it against the insurers, and they’ll rewrite the contract and we’ll be required to pay.
For example, one thing which is already being talked about: we issue what are called “fire policies.” And these fire policies try and exclude nuclear as a covered peril.
But there are several regulators who feel that, gee, if it’s a fire policy, and if the nuclear attack causes a fire, then how can you exclude fire? And you better include fire.
So, you know, debates like that we will have to live with, and it’ll be very difficult for the insurance industry to fight back with the regulators and the court systems in terms of what is covered and what is not covered.
WARREN BUFFETT: And there won’t be any regulators or anybody else. So — (Laughter)
We’ll leave it to a million years of reconstruction. (Laughs)
Einstein said that, “I know not what the weapons will be for World War III. But I know the weapons for World War IV will be sticks and stones.”
You know, there’s a lot of things that — I mean—
If you’re worried about the effect of nuclear attacks, you got other things to worry about than the value of your Berkshire, I’ll put it that way. (Laughter)
And what other cheerful things can we have?
Station —
21. Berkshire is constantly working to block cyberattacks
GREG ABEL: Warren, do you want me to touch on the cyber?
WARREN BUFFETT: Oh, yeah, sure.
GREG ABEL: Yeah, I’ll just touch on the cyber because it was raised.
And when you do think of Berkshire and they use Berkshire Hathaway Energy as a reference.
But cyberrisk, and managing that risk, both at Berkshire, really falls across all of our subsidiaries.
And it’s a constant risk that’s there. It’s one of our greatest risks we’re always evaluating and trying to literally defend against.
And if we use Berkshire Hathaway Energy as an example, we would receive billions of attacks every day against our various operating systems.
So that’s basically what our team is in place for: both-- they harden the assets to deflect it, and then evaluating the underlying attacks we have, you know, every second of the day.
And, by the way, that would — we’d have a number of operating subsidiaries that experience that. But, obviously, it’s the rail, and the energy, and a few others that we spend a lot of time on, a lot of effort, a lot of resources.
And the good news is that through to today, our teams have done an exceptional job, we really haven’t had a significant event. We’ve had some minor events at small businesses, but across our major businesses, across our major operating systems, we’ve had the proper security protocol in place to avoid events.
But, again, it never stops. Our team would tell you that, every day, that’s a risk they recognize and a risk they’re addressing within the businesses.
So, a significant risk, but a significant priority for all of our operating teams.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, and I would add one thing, I think. Greg knows way more about this than I do, but my impression, from everything I’ve seen, is that, you know, you always have — you know, historically, the private industry has always said the government can’t do anything right, and government always says that private industry is just thinking about itself, all these things.
The truth is, from everything I’ve seen, is that the cooperation between government and business in terms of trying to minimize the threat of cyber problems, I think, has been magnificent, basically.
GREG ABEL: Yeah, excellent point. When it comes to cyber, the collaboration between a variety of U.S. agencies and our individual businesses, it’s incredibly strong.
Including down to certain agencies will submit basically a lot of our operating data on a daily basis, where they’re helping us go through it to identify if we have a bad character, a bad individual who’s maybe penetrated into our system.
So, it’s a strong collaboration. And Warren, you’re absolutely right, it’s very unique to see how both the industry and the government is working so closely. But I think we both recognize it as such a significant risk, we have to stay strongly aligned on the approach.
WARREN BUFFETT: It’s a real partnership.
It’s a real partnership. And we can do better because the government is helping us, and the government can do better because we’re helping them, and there’s no lack of will on either side.
And cyber, I mean, it blows your mind. And nuclear is the number one threat, but it’s a very, very, very low probability, you know?
Someday, the sun will burn out, too, you know.
But there’s really no place for two countries with large ICBM possibilities, and who knows what else and everything — but we haven’t figured that out yet. You know.
It’s easy to go around and say, this is the solution or that’s the solution.
But, you know, if you have two people with loaded guns facing each other, and, you know —
CHARLIE MUNGER: And not everybody is likely to be totally rational.
WARREN BUFFETT: Oh, we see so much irrational — irrationality in where people’s self-interest is involved, you know, they’re doing all kinds of things to destroy themselves, in terms of how they live their lives, and everything.
And, you know, it doesn’t stop with — (laughs) — as you move up the ladder.
You know, people — some people do terrible things. And you just have to very much hope that they aren’t in a position where they can do it all by themselves with the rest of the world as their supposed prize.
22. Best investment: “Be exceptionally good at something”
WARREN BUFFETT: OK. If station 3 will please ask something about motherhood and apple pie, or something like that. (Laughter)
DAPHNE: Dear Mr. Buffet and Mr. Munger. My name is Daphne, I’m from NYC, and this is my fifth annual shareholders meeting. (Applause)
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we appreciate you coming. We do, sincerely.
DAPHNE: As you know, for the past four consecutive months, we’ve been going through inflation, with an inflation rate north of 7% for the first time since 1982.
You both have experienced this before, from 1970 to 1975, at a time where your portfolio took paper losses and yet you made some of the best investment choices of your life.
Reflecting on that, my question is, if you had to pick one stock to bet on — (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: You kinda sneaked up on us there for a second. (Laughter)
DAPHNE: — and be resilient in the inflation, which would you choose? And what specifically enables that stock to do very well in what might very likely be a difficult market?
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I’ll tell you something even better than that one stock. (Laughter)
Maybe we’ll get to one stock.
But the best thing you can do is to be exceptionally good at something. If you’re the best doctor in town, if you’re the best lawyer in town, if you’re the best whatever it may be, no matter whether people are paying you with a zillion dollars or paying with — they’re going to give you some of what they produce in exchange for what you deliver.
And if you’re the one they pick out to do any particular activity, sing, or play baseball, or be their lawyer, whatever it may be, whatever abilities you have can’t be taken away from you, they can’t actually be inflated away from you.
Somebody else will give you some of the wheat they produce, or the cotton, or whatever it may be, and they will trade you for the skill you have.
So, the best investment by far is anything that develops yourself. And, again, it’s not taxed. (Applause) So that’s what I would do.
CHARLIE MUNGER: I got some advice for you, too. (Laughter)
When you have your own retirement account, and your friendly advisor suggests you put all the money into bitcoin — (laughter) — just say no. (Laughter) (Applause)
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah.
Nobody can take away from you the talent you have. And the truth is that the world will always be willing. They’ll need to do something, and some people will not have skills, and they will get less of a the product of the society than somebody who has other skills.
And sometimes that has something to do with education, but a good bit of the time it doesn’t have anything to do with education.
But, just figure out what you’d like to be, and figure out how — and what you’d like to be is what you’re going to likely be good at, and, you know —
The world will always need somebody on that tube to tell us what’s going on. So, you know, study Becky Quick or somebody and (laughs) figure out, you know, what makes her good. And what you sort of naturally bring to the game.
I mean, I could have — who’s the guy that says you’ve got to spend 10,000 hours doing this or that, and then? Malcolm Gladwell.
Malcolm Gladwell, you know, would say, just spend 10,000 hours on something. Well, I could have spent 10,000 trying to become a heavyweight boxer, but (laughs) I don’t think would have felt very good at the end of the 10,000 hours. I mean —
And, you know, you stumble into what you really like doing, what you’re good at, what is useful to society. And then it doesn’t make any difference what the dollar bill, you know, is now worth, in terms of the purchasing power, a cent, or a half-a-cent, or a hundredth of a cent.
If you’re the best doctor in town, you know — they’ll bring you chickens, whatever they may do — but they can’t take it away from you.
And my guess is that — if you’ve come to five meetings, you know, you’ve got a very good future ahead of you. I mean, that shows — (Laughter)
It self-selects, I mean —
So, if you want to sell a piece of yourself, you know, we’ll buy that as the best investment we can make. We’ll take 10% of your future earnings, and we’ll give you a cash payment now. (Laughter)
And, you know, we’ll have a terrific asset. And you can have 100% of your future earnings. And if you develop your talent — maybe you’ll be a great dancer — people pay money to watch great dancers. We had Fred Astaire and his sister, Adele, that came from Omaha, you know.
Their name was Austerlitz then, but they could dance. And Adele did whatever she did with him, moved to England. And Fred Astaire went on to do a whole bunch of other things.
And Ginger Rogers had to do it all the same, backwards, in high heels, and she didn’t get paid as much because she was a woman.
But you’re going to do just fine. I’d bet a lot of money on you. (Laughs)
23. “Berkshire is built for forever. There is no finish point”
WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Becky?
BECKY QUICK: This question is for Warren and Ajit. And it comes from someone named Modi, in Israel, who writes, “My family and I are long-term shareholders of Berkshire and we plan to hold it forever. We like that the current management thinks in the long term to increase shareholder intrinsic value.
“But we aren’t sure that, at the time of the management change, the new management will act the same way you do.
“It might take risks in the insurance field where it’s hard to find on the balance sheet, and that might take years to realize.
“We would like to know how we can assess the insurance risk today and in the future, or to know in time, when you and Ajit are not here anymore.”
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I would say that the future, for a long time, is about as assured as you can have in the world.
We don’t have an answer for the nuclear problem or anything, but we have a culture that a), has worked; b) has the shares, and the shareholders, that will carry it a long way.
And, you know, the first year — let’s say I die tomorrow — the first year, you know, everybody says, you know, what’s going to happen? Are they going to spin it off? They can do all these things.
You’ve got the shares held in a place that it can’t happen. You’ve got a board of directors that understands that our culture is 99.9% of running the business.
They don’t think that having meetings of the committees, and bringing in outside experts, or anything like that, mean a thing.
I mean, it’s a process that the world has adopted, and they’ve done it for reasons we understand. But Berkshire’s just plain different, you know.
We are a business that exists for people to trust us. And all we have to do to fulfill that trust is fairly simple things.
We’ve got the people to do it. We’ve got unbelievable resources to do it.
And it isn’t that difficult, as long as you’ve got the freedom, essentially, to do it.
And the world will write stories a year after, “So a year later, what has happened at Berkshire?”
You know, the railroad will be run the same way.
The big worry, of course, is that somebody comes in, figures they can make billions if, as a group, or, you know, people that sell the businesses and say, it’s better to be private, you know, or it’s better to be ‘pure’ this, or something like that.
Well, you know, we’re a pure partnership, is what we’re pure at. (Laughs)
And we do have what we think is a special relationship with our owners. And I don’t think the relationship changes, and the ownership doesn’t change that much.
And, true, there’s nobody can take us over for a long, long time. And, by that point, we would hope that maybe the superiority of this culture might be somewhat better understood by the world.
And we will be here— if we have the same culture, we’ll be 100 years from now — assuming that, you know, we haven’t had a nuclear exchange or something.
But Berkshire is built for forever. There is no finish point.
Nobody’s waiting to retire, or have their options vested, or thinking about — we don’t have anybody that’s thinking about, should I take another job? You know, they’re doing what they want to do in life.
And it isn’t because, you know, we’re topping somebody else’s offer, or that headhunters come around and say, we want this person or that person, and what’ll it take to get him? Well, they can’t get him.
Now, I don’t know whether we could build it again, but we’ve got it. And we didn’t know we were building it, exactly, when we took over.
You know, we had a lousy textile mill. I mean, it isn’t like Charlie and I sat down — he didn’t happen to be in Berkshire, but he was my partner and everything, and so we were mental partners — we didn’t sit down and work out some plan that said, well, we’ll run the dumb textile business for 20 years, and then we’ll finally have to fold it, and then we’ll do this and that and everything. We just kept putting one foot in front of the other.
But we did know how we felt about running a public company.
And one thing we wanted to do, always, was we wanted to have people that were in synch with us. We don’t really want that group I saw in the Flamingo, you know, in 1952. We wanted people who trusted us.
And we started, in my case, in the partnership, we started with seven. And Charlie started a partnership, but this is the same thing.
We didn’t go to institutions. And we didn’t pay fees to people to bring in money or anything like that.
We sat down with people. In my case, I handed them a little sheet of paper, and it set the ground rules. I wanted to be sure we were on the same page.
I said, you don’t have to read the partnership agreement. I mean, there’s no way in the world I would be taking advantage of you. I shouldn’t be here if you think I’d take —
But I do want you to be on the same page, and measuring me by the same yardsticks I measure myself.
And those people stayed with me, and they’re still— they, or their children, or their children’s children are shareholders of Berkshire. But they’re partners.
And it would be hard to do that again, but I would do it with — if I were going to be in this field, I would try and do the same thing. I would try to find people to trust me.
And I don’t want to be with people that are saying, how’d you do versus the S&P, you know, last month? Or, you know, what’s your long/short position? Or anything like that.
I sold securities for three years. And I just didn’t want to be in that position, where essentially, they thought maybe that I could do things that I couldn’t do. So, I finally found a way to get a few people — I mean, I didn’t — actually, I stumbled into it — but a few people that trusted me, and they just gave me their money. And we’ve lived happily-ever-after.
So, the new management — and the management after them, and the management after them — (coughs) — they’re just — excuse me — they’re just custodians of a culture that’s embedded. The owners believe in it. People that work there believe in it.
And we’re not saying other things can’t do better, or anything of the sort. We’re just saying, this is what we’ve got. And we have got the directors, we’ve got the share ownership and all of that to — and the size that, essentially, can ward off any attempts to change the culture.
And, you know, it’s silly to talk about, if our board members did this, and did that, and they, you know —
In the end, obviously, we’re always going to follow the law. We’re a Delaware company and we follow Delaware law.
But that doesn’t mean that we have to do what every other Delaware corporation does, and how they look at the Delaware statues. We will follow the law, and then we’ll run it as a group of people who trust us. And we appreciate that trust. Charlie?
24. “Keep learning”
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I remember when you had a textile mill —
WARREN BUFFETT: Oh, god.
CHARLIE MUNGER: — and it couldn’t —
WARREN BUFFETT: I try to forget it. (Laughs)
CHARLIE MUNGER: — and the textiles are really just congealed electricity, the way modern technology works.
And the TVA rates were 60% lower than the rates in New England. It was an absolutely hopeless hand, and you had the sense to fold it.
WARREN BUFFETT: Twenty-five years later, yeah. (Laughs)
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, you didn’t pour more money into it.
WARREN BUFFETT: No, that’s right.
CHARLIE MUNGER: And, no — recognizing reality, when it’s really awful, and taking appropriate action, just involves, often, just the most elementary good sense.
How in the hell can you run a textile mill in New England when your competitors are paying way lower power rates?
WARREN BUFFETT: And I’ll tell you another problem with it, too. I mean, the fellow that I put in to run it was a really good guy. I mean, he was 100% honest with me in every way. And he was a decent human being, and he knew textiles.
And if he’d been a jerk, it would have been a lot easier. I would have probably thought differently about it.
But we just stumbled along for a while. And then, you know, we got lucky that Jack Ringwalt decided to sell his insurance company [National Indemnity] and we did this and that.
But I even bought a second textile company in New Hampshire, I mean, I don’t know how many — seven or eight years later.
I’m going to talk some about dumb decisions, maybe after lunch we’ll do it a little.
It is incredible how many dumb decisions we made. Charlie and I bought that — and Sandy Gottesman — we bought that department store, and that was in 1966.
And, you know, we were working with our own money. And why in the world did we think —
And Charlie flew to Baltimore, and I’d fly — I mean, we used to really work in those days. (Laughs)
And, there again, we had wonderful people. Louis Cohen couldn’t have been a better guy.
But everybody in that business had a different reference point. You know, they wanted to expand their company. Well, who can blame them for that? And, you know, they were planning a couple of new stores. And each department — the shoe department said, well, we’ll do it better this time, and all that kind of thing.
But the whole idea was crazy. And we got there for a little while, and we figured it out, finally. And —
CHARLIE MUNGER: We reversed course.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. But why the hell did we do it in the first place? (Laughs)
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, because we were stupid.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, OK, well — (Laughter)
That’s important to realize. We paid $6 a share for that stock, and if the department store had succeeded, it might be worth, you know, $30 a share now and we’d have — and it failed, so.
But we did other things, and we merged it into Berkshire, and we’ll talk about that a little later.
And, you know, now I don’t know whether it’s — $150,000 a share now, or something like that, from the six bucks. So, if it succeeded, we would have maybe made a few dollars. And because it failed, we made hundreds of thousands of dollars per share.
But that’s the way life is. (Laughs)
You just keep going. And —
CHARLIE MUNGER: And keep learning, that’s the secret.
WARREN BUFFETT: Keep learning.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Keep learning.
WARREN BUFFETT: Keep learning.
25. The “aha” moment for Buffett that changed everything
WARREN BUFFETT: And you can say, why would it take guys that long to learn?
And — well, we’ve got a few minutes before lunch. We should — let’s address that problem. Because I did bring something along on that.
I started buying stocks when I was 11. I’d been reading every book in the library on it. I loved it. My dad loved — you know, it was his business and I’d get to go down to his office and I’d read the books down there.
And I saved the money, and finally, by the time I was 11, I could buy a stock. And I could tell you, at that time — I went to New York Stock Exchange when I was nine. My dad took us to New York — each kid to New York once — and he took me, and I went to the New York Stock Exchange, and I was in awe of it.
I could tell you how the specialist system worked, and the odd lot arrangements, and I could tell you the history of finance, and all of these things.
And then I got very interested in technical analysis, and charted stocks, and did all kinds of crazy things. Hours and hours and hours. And saved money to buy other stocks. And tried shorting. And I just did everything.
And then, when I was either 19 or 20, and I can’t remember exactly where I did it or something, I picked up a book someplace.
It wasn’t a textbook at school, but it was in Lincoln, Nebraska. And I — you know, I looked at this book, and I saw one paragraph, and it told me I’d been doing everything wrong. (Laughs)
I just had the whole approach wrong.
I thought I was in the business of trying to pick stocks that would go up.
And, in one paragraph, I saw that that was totally foolish.
And I’ve brought something that is really interesting. Let’s put up — what did we call this chart?
Oh, here we are, yeah.
Let’s put up [slide] illusion one. Done. There we have it.
You know, now if you look at that, some people will see two faces, some people will see a vase, and some people will look a long time and only see two faces. But the mind flips from one side to another, and there’s some name for it that — they call it “ambiguous illusions” or something of the sort.
There’s other things that talk about aha moments — or, in the old comic strips with Popeye, Wimpy would have a little balloon over his head, and the lightbulb would go on.
There’s this point where all of a sudden you see something you haven’t seen. Well, it took me — I had an illusion that I was looking at, we’ll say in that one, two faces.
Go to the — let’s go to the one labeled two.
And if you’re looking at it from one side, it looks like a rabbit, and if you look the other way, it looks like you’re looking at a duck.
And, you know, the mind is a very funny place.
And I think people call it an apperceptive mass, when you have all kinds of things going on in your mind. And they go on for years, and they sit there and get lost (laughs).
And then, all of a sudden, you see something different than what you were seeing before.
Now, it took me, in stocks, which I was intensely interested in, and I had a decent IQ, and I was reading and thinking, you know. And it was important to me to make some money on it. I had every motivation in the world. And then I read a chapter — I read a paragraph, actually — in chapter 8, I think it was, of the Intelligent Investor, and it told me that I wasn’t looking at the duck, I was looking, you know — now it was the rabbit — whatever it may be.
And whether you call it a lightbulb” — whether you call it, you know, a moment of truth — whatever it may be — and that happened to me in Lincoln. I mean, it changed my life.
If I hadn’t read that book, I don’t know how long I would have gone on looking for head-and-shoulders formations, and 200-day moving averages, and the odd lot ratios, and a zillion things. And I love that kind of stuff. Except it was the wrong stuff I was looking at.
And I’ve had that happen — and Charlie’s had it happen, I’m sure. It happens a few times in your life. And all of a sudden, you see something important that, why in the hell didn’t I see this in the first place? Maybe it’s a week ago, maybe it’s a year ago, maybe it’s five years ago.
Maybe it’s learning how to get along with people, you know. I mean, whether, actually, it’s better to be, you know, kind, or not, you know.
Or whether —I mean, they’re just — learning how — if you want the world to love you, what you have to do, or whatever.
You know it when you see it, but you didn’t see it for ten years before.
And I don’t know whether Charlie’s got some thoughts on that or not, but that’s happened in a few situations in business, where I’ve looked at a company for a decade. And then there’s something that just all gets rearranged in your mind, and, you know, you can say, well, why didn’t I see this five years ago?
But I’ve had it happen a few times, obviously — and everybody here has — just in different areas of their lives.
And you think, how could I have been so stupid?
Well, that’s what Charlie’s — when he was in the law practice, he had a partner, Roy Tolles. And every smart guy that would get in trouble — usually it was guys, and usually it was with women — and, you know, they’d come into the office, and they’d look, you know, down-faced and everything. And they’d say, it seemed like a good idea at the time, you know. I mean — (Laughter)
And their lives unraveled, you know, in many cases.
So, there is that apperceptive mass that’s sitting in there inside somehow, and every now and then it produces some insight.
It’s better, actually, if it produces insight into your behavior than whether it produces insight to make money.
And some people never get it. And they wonder why — you know, whether their kids hate them, or whether there’s nobody in the world that would give a damn whether they live or die.
In fact, they prefer they die because they’ve been courting them for their art collection, or whatever it may be. It’s just —
Charlie would say, you know, just write your obituary and reverse engineer it.
And not a crazy idea, but, Charlie, I don’t know. What do you know about apperceptive masses? Which are (laughs) you know, optical illusions.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I know that that’s the way the brain works. And that it’s easy to get it wrong. And part of the trick is to get so you correct your own mistakes. And we’ve done a lot of that.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Frequently way too late.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. We’ve done better with the mistakes than we have with the good — the reasonably good ideas.
26. Robinhood’s “unraveling” is God’s justice
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, it’s so easy to overdo a good idea.
That’s what’s going on now. You have a lot of good ideas that are being grossly overdone.
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, just tell me about one that hasn’t been, but tell me later, when the crowd isn’t listening. (Laughs)
It — I mean, that’s where —
CHARLIE MUNGER: But look what happened to Robinhood, from its peak to its trough.
Wasn’t that pretty obvious, that something like that was going to happen?
WARREN BUFFETT: Tell me again? What should —
CHARLIE MUNGER: Robinhood. Remember, it came out, and it went public, and —
WARREN BUFFETT: Oh.
CHARLIE MUNGER: — it lured everybody into all this short-term gambling, and big commissions, and hidden kickbacks, and so on and so on. It was disgusting.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. And you said so last year, and they got mad at you, and they sold a bunch of their stock, and they’ve got the money, and —
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, but now it’s unraveling. God is getting just.
WARREN BUFFETT: I love the insiders of great — no, but they’ve gotten a lot of money from it. I mean, they were big sellers, as I remember.
CHARLIE MUNGER: That may be —
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah.
CHARLIE MUNGER: — but there’s been some justice.
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I happen to agree with that. (Applause)
Whether it’s a good idea to go around making enemies of people, though, that — that’s another question, which we do.
Is it wise to criticize people at all?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Probably not, but I can’t help it.
WARREN BUFFETT: (Laughs) (Applause)
Well — and here’s the smartest guy I know, and he’s 98 and he hasn’t figured it out yet, so — (Laughter)
Give up. Enjoy it.
Well, with that we’ll go to lunch, and we’ll try to come back wiser at one o’clock.
Afternoon Session - 2022 Meeting
1. The Jimmy Buffett pontoon boats are going fast
WARREN BUFFETT: OK, let’s reconvene.
I think we sold 15 [Jimmy Buffett party pontoon] boats, so far, I was told that a while — a little a while ago out there — so get them while they last.
We won’t have the first one available for delivery for about a year. But people are getting 10% off, whatever that means, who order one. And I’ve ordered one myself. And we’re – things are going well in the other room.
And we only got seven questions, which is a new low, in the first half. So, we’ll try and move a little faster.
I can’t imagine why it went that slowly. I mean, who’s — who’s doing all that talking? (Laughter) OK.
2. Buffett” I’ve “decidedly backed off” from expressing political views
WARREN BUFFETT: Station four.
JEFF VUVOLOY: Hi Warren and Charlie. I’m Jeff Vuvoloy (PH), shareholder from San Francisco.
In recent years, American companies have taken on a more active role in the political realm. Whether it is speaking out against specific bills, or promoting various social causes, often at the behest of shareholder or employee groups.
While the goals of these movements can be laudable, they risk alienating significant portions of customer and employee bases. How should CEOs decide which issues to take a stand on, or whether their companies should engage in the political realm at all? Thank you.
WARREN BUFFETT: That’s a terrific question, and that is one obviously I’ve had to think about plenty.
And at one point I said, “I don’t put my citizenship in a blind trust when I take the job as CEO of Berkshire.” But I’ve also learned that — you can make a whole lot more people sustainably mad than you can make temporarily happy by speaking out on any subject.
And on certain subjects, they will take it out on our companies, and that means that the people that are employed by us, some of them we would end up letting go. It means that the shareholders get hurt. And do I really think that it’s so important that I talk on every possible subject that people can get very upset about? Whether they should be asked to pay that price?
And I’ve come to the conclusion, the answer is no. Why in the world do I want to hurt the people in that other room that do all kinds of things for Berkshire. Why do I want to hurt you because I say something that 20% of the country is going to instantly disagree with, and sometimes they will be so upset about it that they will try and take it out.
And since they can’t scream at me, they may have campaigns against our companies or anything else. So I think, as it applies to me, I’m not going to go around and take positions where instead of saying, “Warren Buffett says,” it will say, you know, “Berkshire Hathaway,” or “Warren Buffett of Berkshire Hathaway.”
I get identified. And I do not want to make the lives of you — and I’ve just decided I’m not going to be doing that. And if I want to do that, I should quit my job. If I think my citizenship, speaking out is that important, I’ll give up what I love the most, which is having this job. (Laughs)
I don’t want to do that. So, I’ve decidedly backed off, I don’t want to say anything that’ll get attributed, basically to Berkshire, and have somebody else bear the consequences of what I talk about.
So that’s where I stand. And I can tell you that at most companies, or many — that isn’t fair. But in the great many companies, you know, CEOs, they have to think about what their board says to them, and they’ve made a point of electing people to their boards, because it’s socially acceptable, who represent different constituencies, sometimes very strongly.
And if they think their stakeholders, for this group and that group and that group, they’ll get pressured by their boards to take positions. And it’s just a territory that we’re not going to get into.
Charlie, how do you feel about that?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, even more than you, I have to be very careful about what I say. (Laughter)
Now — (Laughter)
MALE VOICE: Yeah. It’s — (Applause)
WARREN BUFFETT: And the difference between the two of us is I can’t resist saying a little more. (Laughter) I see headlines in papers, just time after time after time, that say, “Buffett’s buying such and such.” Well, I’m not buying such and such. Berkshire Hathaway is buying it, and it may be the work of two other people that work at Berkshire.”
And people who write the articles don’t have the faintest idea whether it was at my instigation or whether I’d even heard of it. But the headline will attract more people if it says, “Buffett buying this,” than if it says, “Berkshire Hathaway, and we don’t know whether it’s the people that work for him or him.”
The headline is designed to bring people into the story. So —
The confusion is terrible. And the easiest thing to do is to basically shut up and not have a bunch of people fascinating questions that they didn’t ask for in the first place.
But I’m glad you asked that question. That is a good question. And I probably thought more about that question than I think about whether this stock or that stock is cheap.
3. Berkshire is not a “weapon” to be used politically
WARREN BUFFETT: And with that, we’ll go to — well, let’s see. That was station four. We’ll go back to Becky.
BECKY QUICK: On that note, let’s go to a question from David Cass.
He writes in, “President Biden’s fiscal 2023 budget request would impose a 20% minimum tax on the unrealized capital gains for households worth at least $100 million. What are your views on this issue?”
And if you don’t want to answer, maybe Charlie does. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we’ll find out. (Laughter) And in all honesty, we should both say that we would be affected by it. If it’s $100 million, we’d both be affected. So our point of view is — and I have no point of view. Charlie? I have no point of view that I would want attributed to —
CHARLIE MUNGER: I tend to stay out of the income tax things like this. My policy is I pay whatever taxes they pass, and I don’t want to engage in lobbying about taxes.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. (Applause) And I would add one thing. Lobbying is really distasteful. I once did it for a candidate, and I ended up in a room with a bunch of lobbyists for cigarette companies. They didn’t care about Nebraska. They didn’t care about — and they didn’t have anything. They were there because they were handing over a contribution. And I was a convenient accessory. And, you know, it made you want to throw up, basically.
On the other hand, we operate in the railroad business, energy business, insurance business, and they’re extensively regulated. And I don’t also want to be the only railroad that stays out of the railroad group. The only insurance company that stays out of the insurance group.
So, you know, other people can rightly figure that we’re a free rider under those circumstances. So I tell the managers generally, you know, “Don’t spend Berkshire’s money on candidates that you like. Don’t pressure suppliers to do —” Berkshire is not a weapon to use — and it’s been used by certain people in the organization. But don’t use it to muscle money out of anybody else for who you like or what school your wife went to or whatever it may be. And some of it goes on anyway.
But I don’t tell our people to don’t belong to any trade associations. Charlie wrote one of the great letters of all time, and if you go to search, type in I think 1989 Munger savings and loan or something. We resigned from the U.S. Savings and Loan League, I guess it was.
And we warned them. We said, “We just cannot stand, you know, what you’re doing to the country.” And when a bunch of very nice people get together, but they decided it’s in the interest of their savings and loan to do this or that.
And we warned them, and finally Charlie wrote a letter, which is, like I say, available on search. And it should be one of the proudest letters — certainly one of the proudest letters that’s ever come out of Berkshire. And he just said, “We can’t stand it anymore, and we’re resigning.”
But that’s a very tough thing to do. It’s a tough way to live, to just go around criticizing (Laughs) the people you work with, and neighbors. And they’re perfectly decent people, but they’re running institutions that are doing things that are very distasteful to them.
And we belong, support some of our subsidiaries in energy. And, you know, I don’t want to find people are doing it for personal reasons. I mean in that case, they’re in trouble. But I don’t say they can’t do it, because I don’t want their hands tied if something comes up, and essentially either their competitors within the industry or the industry (UNINTEL), we’re not going to stand alone and say, “Well, we’re morally superior, so you put your money up and buy it.” So that’s where I end up. Charlie?
CHARLIE MUNGER: I’ve got nothing to add.
WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Never bothers me when I don’t have anything to add, but he seems stuck on that. (Laughs)
Anyway. Becky, did that come from you?
BECKY QUICK: It did.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, OK.
4. It helps to know more than one discipline
WARREN BUFFETT: Then station five.
SONG YAO: Oh, thank you, Warren and Charlie. My name is Song Yao. I’m from China, and now studying in the University of Chicago. I really admire you two, especially Charlie. You are my idol since I was a child.
And my question is also for Charlie. My question is how to practice the multi-disciplinary framework in making investment decisions and in life? Like, how to make it more practical. Thank you.
WARREN BUFFETT: Charlie? (Applause)
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, obviously, it helps you to know more than one discipline. There’s an old saying, you know, that a man who carries only a hammer thinks everything else is a nail. And you may go on wrong decisions if you don’t have some command of all the disciplines.
That’s all I ever said. But you do irritate people terribly when you come into their territory, you say, “I’m multi-disciplinary. You’re the expert, and I know better than you.” They hate you for it. I can attest to it. I’ve done it several times. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: And, you know, China — well, to a certain degree, and they have a culture that, to some extent, reveres age. So, Charlie’s got me beat. (Laughs)
I don’t even try and compete with him on China.
I can’t catch him on age. OK.
I’m going to try to, though.
Let’s see. We’ve got Becky coming next.
5. Inflation “swindles almost everybody”
BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Phillip King. He writes, “In the ’70s you wrote an article entitled, ‘How Inflation Swindles the Equity Investor.’ You said that stocks cannot keep pace with inflation, because companies cannot increase their return on equity. Do you believe that this is still the case?
Yeah. And of course bonds can swindle the equity investor too. (Laughs) Inflation, I should say, swindles the bond investor too. And it swindles the person who keeps their cash under their mattress. It swindles almost everybody. And the problem, if you have a business that doesn’t take any capital, and let’s just say the dollar depreciates 90% or something, so things cost ten times as much.
If it doesn’t take any capital you can charge ten times as much, and you’ve kept your relative position. But most businesses take some capital. If our utility business — just to say that the dollar is worth 1/10th some years hence from now, we have to have ten times the capital investment, basically. And we get paid a return on that, but we have forced capital investment to essentially keep in the same place.
And I wrote an article that related to that, and I will tell you one famous story, which you will all sympathize with. In that I wrote that story for Fortune, and when I finished it, it was about 7,000 words. And Fortune didn’t like publishing 7,000 words, and they had my friend Carol Loomis explain that to me, knowing that I would pay more attention to her than anybody else.
But being stubborn and male, I said, you know, “Every word is precious,” and they can either run it or not. So then they sent an editor, a very nice guy, out to Omaha. And this guy explained to me that just wasn’t right to use that many words. And I said, “Well, that’s fine, but if you don’t do it, I’ll write it someplace else.” Very disgusting behavior on my part.
And then it was beginning to bother me a little, so I sent it to my friend Meg Greenfield. And Meg was a great, great, great editor at The Washington Post, and we were very, very good friends. Wonderful woman. And Meg, who was tough as nails with most writers, but she was kind of nice. She didn’t want to really hurt me too much. So I said, “Well, Meg, what do you think?” And she said, “Well, Warren,” she says, “You don’t have to tell everything you know in this article. (Laughter)
And it made the point. And so I write that article shorter, and I say more or less the same thing. You know? And you’re better off — if you really could have a totally stable unit of monetary use for the next 100 years, it would be better for business and investors in general.
Charlie? No? We will go to station six.
Inflation — the question is how much. And the question is whether you can decide that 2% and keep it — the answer is nobody knows. You know? I mean you do not know, and nobody knows. You can listen to all kinds of stuff, but nobody knows how much inflation there will be over the next ten years or 20 years or 50 years or next month.
And people talk about it all the time, because you’re interested in knowing the answer to your question. And they don’t know the answer, but there are a lot of people that will tell you they know the answer if you pay them enough. And other people that will tell you for nothing, because they think it enhances their prestige and makes them more valuable and all that.
But the answer is they don’t know. And we don’t know either. The best protection against inflation, though, still is your own personal earning bar. If you play the violin very well, you will do reasonably well during inflation. I mean play it better than other people, people will pay you for doing that. All kinds of things. So your skills will not be taken away, and your money may be.
OK, station six. Oh, wait a second. Was that —?
Is it Becky next? Becky?
BECKY QUICK: That’s right. It’s station six.
6. How a “culture of lying” can develop at a company
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Station six. OK.
MARTIN WEGAND: My name is Martin Wegand. I live in Nashville, Tennessee. Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger, thank you for your lifetime of teachings and for hosting us back in Omaha this year. (Applause)
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, thank you.
MARTIN WEGAND: You have mentioned that companies get the shareholders they deserve. And in this year’s letter, you mentioned a great satisfaction of yours is working for the individual long-term shareholders. With the growing influence of institutional index funds, how can management teams foster a shareholder culture like the one we have at Berkshire? Thank you.
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, fortunately we have it, and we know more about how to keep it than to institute one. And it’s very interesting. We have a 1,470,000 class A shares outstanding today. Fewer than we had a year ago. And those seats are filled. I mean you are the shareholders in place.
We like the group we have. So why in the world, when we got a fixed number of seats, should we go out and recruit other people to replace you? You know? I mean the ideal shareholder group we can have is the group we have today. And, you know, if we had a church, we’d want the people to keep coming back week after week after week.
If we had a limited number of seats, and we had some wonderful parishioners, we would not go out and recruit another 50 or 100 of them and have to throw out 50 or 100 of the ones we already had. We’ve got. And every company I know, virtually, you know, is wooing new people to come in.
And whether they’re improving the group they get or not, I mean it strikes us as basically crazy. We don’t want anybody different (Laughter) than we have now. And, you know, we’re not going to get rid of the index fund, so we have to get rid of people like you, and we don’t want to get rid of people like you. (Laughs)
And I just don’t understand why if you had a neighborhood, and the size of the terrain or whatever it was would be such that you could have ten neighbors, and they were all great neighbors, why in the world would you go out and say to a whole bunch of people going up and down the street, you know, “Why don’t you buy the house of the guy next to me?”
You know, (Laughs) it is weird, but there’s an awful lot of people that make their living by doing that, and they never really question. I would sort of ask any company that’s making analyst presentations every month or something, “Which of the present ones are you trying to get rid of?”
You know, basically, because I hope you’re not going to have more shares outstanding at the end of the year than you have now. And am I supposed to, you know, get out of the way so (Laughs) some other fund that is thinking about what your stock is going to do next week replaces me? It is a very, very, very weird situation.
And of course, the really crazy process that has developed is people talking to, we’ll say, analyst group, you know, sort of the high priests of finance, you know, some companies are doing it more than once a month. Well, just imagine if you work for that company, you go to work for that company, and every month people are repeating these things about their company that, “It’s important that we have more services per customer at 6.2 and we got to get to seven,” or something like that.
And they’d say that month after month after month, so it becomes a catechism. And CEO says it or his or her representative says it, and how do you go on the next month and say, “By the way, we were really wrong, and this is what we should be working on.”
You don’t say that. And it’s a terrible problem the new CEO has coming in after a previous CEO has said the important thing to do is to hit your earnings targets. Well, you know, he’s been meeting them, in all probability, by cheating from some time to time.
And this guy hands you the baton, and are you going to come out and say, “Well, we’ve really been cheating a little and it’s really counterproductive to the development of the, you know, companies, not to make earnings projections and just to give you the results as they come, rather than making up a few things.
And the accounting department, you know, they can’t do it. It’s not human nature, and besides, you wouldn’t get appointed the successor. But you just don’t go in and say, “We’ve been perpetuating these myths that we can always deliver 8% growth or we can do this or do that, or the most important thing is this.”
You can’t go in and change that if every month you’ve been preaching to people that this is what we stand for, and just ask another question and carry this message out to the masses, to the analysts and all that. And it’s a totally destructive policy.
I mean, you know, I can, within gap accounting, I can play a lot of games with numbers. We’ve done a lot-ta dumb things at Berkshire. We have never told anybody that the number had to be this or that or to change anything. I mean once you start it, it’s all over.
You can’t quit. It’s like taking $5 out of the cash register. You know, the first time you take the five bucks out, you’ll say, “Well, I’m going to put it back.” And then do it a few times, and you’ll never stop. In fact, do it once and you probably never stop.
But if something is going to be destructive, the thing to do is not start it. And forecasting earnings, I can’t imagine anything more destructive. I’ve got 360,000 people out there, and they know whether I’m lying or not. Many of them.
And they know what they send in figures, and they get changed? You know, what message are you telling? We’ve got one dramatic illustration of that within Berkshire. And it’s just, you know, if you start lying you’ve got a big problem. It’s that simple.
And if you start saying to your team that somehow you’ve got a job — you’ve got shareholder relations, your job is to go out and tell everybody that our stock is the best thing among thousands of choices to buy, every day. Well, that’s crazy.
So what do you tell them? Well, they try to, you know, see which way the wind is blowing and figure out what they have to tell people. And that they go out and tell them, and then if you’re human, and you’ve said, “We’re going to earn $3.59 a share,” you can get to $3.59. And get there quite a while.
And, you know, you can have all these processes, but if you have a culture of lying, the processes really don’t — they just disappear. And Charlie and I have seen it, well, probably every time we’ve gone on a board. Charlie, tell them about it? (Laughs)
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I think Berkshire’s culture’s going to last a long time after we’re gone. And I think it should, and I think it’ll prosper pretty well. The rest of corporate America is quite different, and it gets more different, I think, with each passing decade.
And it’s getting very peculiar. Pretty soon they’re going to hold all the shareholders’ meetings online, and the shareholders won’t even come. And it’s just it’s getting very peculiar. And the index fund’s getting more and more important than the voting. And it’s like everything else in life. It changes, and not always in ways you like.
WARREN BUFFETT: And it ends up for selecting different CEOs and all kinds of things. I mean, you’re not going to appoint a successor CEO that’s going to come in and say everything that’s been done before, you know, has been kind of fraudulent. You know? I mean if we needed to book an extra sale after the end of the quarter, if we needed to adjust the reserves, once you start lying, it’s all over.
And I just don’t know any way around that, except to try every way you can to not — if you set the wrong example at the top, you’ve got a real problem. You know? And we’ve never told anybody to change a figure. And we never will. And if they had been changing figures, you know, we’d be in all kinds of trouble, because they know it and I’d know it and the next person would know it. And it just deteriorates.
And we’ve really seen it time after time. The way boards operate, you know, it has to be process-oriented. I mean I understand the problems that Delaware has in writing a statute that judges face when they look at things, but it’s just extraordinary what an emphasis on process can do to an organization, because they think they can do anything if it’s allowed.
And, you know, eventually the foundation crumbles.
7. Buffet is buying Activision as merger arbitrage play
WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Oh, I should make a little news here, so you’ve all come and you may or may not see this, but it’s very possible — one of the things we bought, one of the things I bought, was bought for a different purpose by a different manager months earlier.
They bought roughly 15 million shares of Activision. And I knew about the company, I would just see it at the monthly report. But then on January, I don’t know, 17th or 18th, something like that, Microsoft announced they were going to buy Activision for $95 a share.
Now, when they announced that, at that point Activision becomes a different kind of security. It becomes what Charlie and I used to call — well, and everybody did 50 years ago. We’d call them workouts or something like that. And they become known as arbitrage.
Well, they’re not really arbitrage, but they’re securities that are, in this case a common stock, whose value depends not on what the market price does, but whether a given corporate event occurs. An announced corporate event occurs. Well, Microsoft wants to buy Activision, we’ll say — well, they said at $95 a share.
And they’ve got the money, and obviously mergers, and big mergers, tech companies, all kinds of things, have got all kinds of problems with the world generally in terms of opinion. So you don’t know what the Justice Department will do or you don’t know what the EU will do and all kinds of things.
But at that point it becomes a different security. And Charlie and I, 50 years ago, we used to do a lot of that sort of thing. And Gus Levy did it at Goldman Sachs. And we even went back one time I think on British Columbia power, didn’t we, Charlie?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. We certainly did.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. (Laughs) A guy named Bennett was up there, and we were trying to figure out some takeover of the power business. I mean we spent a lot of time analyzing the probabilities of announced deals going through, and we called them workouts. Now, the term became arb. And it hasn’t worked overall too well in recent years.
Now, every now and then I see something that I want do to in that field. But very seldom, because they’ve got to be big. The profit is limited. You know, if they say you’re going to get $95, you’re not going to get $96, and if the deal blows up, you may have a stock that’s at $40 or something.
But we did it with Monsanto five or six years ago when Bayer was buying it, and we got very lucky, because it turned out to be a terrible acquisition for Bayer, but it did go through, because Bayer had the money and they went through with the deal, even though Monsanto came with a problem that nobody really understands the extent of. And we did it with Red Hat when IBM bought it.
So in any event, on January whatever it was, 17th, 18th, 19th, Microsoft announces it. And the stock, which had been at $60 — let’s see. I may have a slide here, which I’ll find. But in any event, the stock, which had been in the 60s, went up to $81 or $82. And that looked like not a big enough spread to me for a few days. And then it settled back a little.
So anyway, we now own 9.5%, something like 9.5% of Activision. And if we went over 10% we would file a report. So in order that the news people don’t feel that there’s no news here, I can tell you that as of yesterday, we own about 9.5%. If we go past 10%, there’ll be a form filed with the SEC and so on.
But it is my purchases, not the manager who bought it some months ago. (SNAPPING) And if the deal goes through we make some money, and if the deal doesn’t go through, who knows what happens. But I just want to be sure that if we do file that report, people understand very clearly, because there’s been some very mixed up stories on that in the past.
We want to be very clear that it was Warren Buffett’s decision in that particular case, and he doesn’t know what the Justice Department’s going to do. (Laughs) He doesn’t know what the EU’s going to do. He’s never talked to anybody at Microsoft about it.
I think he’s just read a document. He’s made his own assessment. And it can change. And at one time I think we sold a few shares even when I thought it was a little higher than it should be. It turned out those sales were not a bad sale. And so I just want to create a little news for you.
And I want to, if possible, head off stories which have been incorrect in the past, and which get then picked up by other media and corrections never get written. That all the corrections were written by one inaccurate story. And they apologized even to me. Both are reporter and the editor sent me a personal note of apology. And they didn’t expect to make a mistake.
But when the other publications picked up the story, they didn’t bother to pick up the correction. And millions of people were misinformed, and probably — literally by the time it gets spread around. And this one I will attempt to head off by telling you exactly what the facts are (Laughs) right now.
And we’ll see whether we go beyond 10%. But, you know, it could easily be that if it went up a few dollars — it’s still a $95 deal. It’s still we don’t know what the Justice Department will do. We don’t know what the EU will do. We don’t know what 30 other jurisdictions will do. One thing we do know is Microsoft has the money. So that takes that one risk out of it. So anyway, Charlie, do you have any news to break? (Laughs)
CHARLIE MUNGER: No.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. (Laughter) And incidentally, I don’t talk this over with Charlie. I mean, you know, he knows that occasionally I’ll see an arbitrage deal and do it. And, you know, 50 years ago we were doing it together, and his general feeling is, “Why is Warren fooling around with this kind of stuff, even.”
But it’s the old fire horse that occasionally it looks like the odds are in our favor. But absolutely we can lose money on that company, and, you know, fairly large sums of money, depending on what happened if the deal blows up.
And there will be a lot of people that want the deal to blow up. But Microsoft doesn’t want it to blow up, so we’ll just have to see what happens.
8. Index funds may be getting too much influence over corporate governance
WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Becky?
BECKY QUICK: You know, Charlie just mentioned index funds in passing, so let’s go to this question from Matt Figel. His question is related to the growth of passive investing through index funds and ETFs. He says, “Passive investment vehicles now control upwards of 50% of the United States stock market.”
BECKY QUICK: “The actual owners of these passive investment vehicles decided passive investing makes the most sense for them, yet, in doing so, passive investors have empowered the large index funds to become the biggest activists in the market. These passive managers now enjoy enormous, and, I would argue undue influence over corporate governance. Do Warren or Charlie see any benefit or logic to a rule that would prohibit passive investment vehicle managers from voting the shares they control for their passive investment clients?”
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I’ll take that. I think the guy’s right. I think the thing is out of control and counterproductive. And I don’t think it’s good for the country to have three passive investors, bright young men from Harvard or what all, telling them what proper governance of corporations is. It’s not a good development. (Applause) And I think indexing, if it gets to 90%, then it won’t work very well at all. But at the moment, it’s worked fine.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Well, the one thing you can count on too is that if it does look like it’s going to — if the public opinion shifts over to the idea that it really is a good idea to let three people decide the fate of every company in corporate America, the three people — and they won’t collaborate or do anything.
It’s not that they’re evil people the least. I mean, they’re just doing what you and I would do. They would figure they don’t care that much about voting. What we do care about is keeping (Laughs) a lot of assets under management. But so we’ll figure out something that ends up reflecting public opinion, and then politicians won’t get mad at us. And our only threat, really, is the politicians get mad at us, and regulators in some ways. So we’ll head it off.
And I would predict fairly confidently that if American public doesn’t like the idea of three people controlling things, the three people — and their organizations and everything, but the three, what they want to do is they want to get bigger. (Laughs)
And they wouldn’t be where they are in life if they hadn’t wanted to get bigger. Those things don’t happen by accident. That doesn’t mean that it’s the only thing they want. They want their investors to get good results and everything. But they are certainly not going to follow a policy which is going to cause a backlash that causes them to be a lot smaller there.
They can figure out their self-interest. And it just so happens that in this case, it would achieve the right result, which is that they would not control America, but they’ll do what’s good for themselves. And what they have to do, what’s politically acceptable.
The only thing that really can mess up what is a very good deal for them is to have Congress change the rules. And, you know, the rules were — the Investment Company Act of 1940 really changed how people behaved, and it’s governed things in a big way for a very long time.
And anybody that takes on the federal government loses. You know? And if you’re talking about trying to do that sort of thing — and they don’t need to do it. They just say, “Well, we’ll give up voting, or we’ll vote our shares as the rest of the people do.”
And of course if you vote your shares as the rest of the people do, then if the index fund’s at 90% of the country, you could take over a company by somebody else buying 3% or 4%, because you just automatically get the funds to follow your very small little percentage.
You’ll see it all play out. I mean it’s a big case, but it’s not an unusual case.
9. Berkshire’s relationship with its energy subsidiary
WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Station seven.
ERIC ERTA: Yeah. Eric Erta, and I live in Albuquerque, New Mexico. So I want to first say thank you so much for a lifetime of knowledge you’ve both graciously shared with all of us. You’ve contributed greatly to push our species forward. Moreover, you’ve taught all of us here, along with many, many millions not here, how to behave more rationally, treat one another with more love, and lead more fulfilling lives. And for that, I want to say a very sincere thank you. (Applause)
WARREN BUFFETT: Thank you.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Uh-huh (AFFIRM).
ERIC ERTA: As for my question, I want to ask about Berkshire Hathaway energy, and the unique structure that has evolved there, given that Berkshire doesn’t own 100% of the company.
The first part of that question is related to Greg’s ownership and his corresponding incentive alignment with overall Berkshire.
ERIC ERTA: Now, there’s a wise man named Charlie that in 1995, at a speech to Harvard, taught us how important incentives are to human behavior. I would conservatively say that Greg’s stake in BHE is worth more than $500 million at present. And I’m curious if you can share any plans that you have to convert is Berkshire Hathaway energy ownership to Berkshire stock? And if there isn’t a plan to do this, can you please explain why we shouldn’t be concerned about Greg’s incentive structure going forward?
ERIC ERTA: The second part is about leverage at the entity. You have always said that BHE operates with an appropriate amount of leverage, given it’s earning power. With that said, it’s still a very, very large debt figure in relation to current earnings, especially with what we have become accustomed to at Berkshire. And I’m curious if Berkshire owed 100% of Berkshire Hathaway Energy, would you still operate the business with the same amount of leverage?
WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Thank you. The second part is the easiest one to answer, so I’ll take that. Then I’ll throw the first one back to Charlie. (Laughter) But Berkshire Hathaway Energy actually is required with it’s regulated utilities — and it basically started pretty much with regulated utilities, and still is dominated by that. And we’re interested in buying more regulated utilities.
It’s required in different ways by different states and by different regulatory authorities to have a large amount of debt, because, in Iowa or to pick any state, the regulatory authorities are going to say you can get debt money cheaper than you can get equity money, which historically has largely almost always been true.
And they say that since we’re going to allow you a return on equity — we’ll say, just pick a figure. But let’s say they allow us a return on equity of 9%, and we can borrow a lot of capital at 3%, they say it’ll result in higher rates to customers if you put in all equity.
We would love to have all equity (Laughs) in our utilities, but the regulator wouldn’t stand for it, because under the trad system it would result in higher prices to consumers. So that’s built into the system. And well, our regulator wouldn’t allow us, essentially, to get the same return on equity and have an all equity structure.
And the answer is, you know — well, you actually saw in the film earlier, which the people that are hearing the webcast didn’t see. But just in Iowa, you know, we recently got approval to spend three and a fraction billion dollars, but they want us — Iowa has a history, and like every other state in the union — except Nebraska, which is all public power.
But every private power, you know, they have a history of wanting X percent to be in debt. They want you to raise a lot of money in debt because it means cheaper power for the consumer. So the answer is if we owned 100% of Berkshire Energy, we would absolutely be following the same. We would be operating pursuant to what the utility commissions tell us they want us to do that. They represent the people of those states. Now Charlie, do you want —
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, the other one’s simple too. It’s a historical accident. It’s not causing any big tension or breaches of fiduciary duty. We had the same problem with Walter Scott, who was the director for years and years, and owned stock in the same company, also an historical accident. I just don’t think it’s a big problem at all. I see no behavior from Greg ever that isn’t in the best interests of Berkshire.
Yeah. And we’ve had various percentages of Berkshire Hathaway Energy ever since we bought it in around 2000. And it happened, my sister, who’s here, we were at our house, and there was a party going on. And 20 or 30, probably 30 people. And Walter said to me, “Have you got a minute or two? I’d like to talk to you about something.”
So we went in the library or someplace, and Walter says, “You know, we’ve got this company and it doesn’t seem to fit the public mold very well. And would you want to buy it and go private?” And I said, “Sure.” You know? (UNINTEL) the price.
And when we got back to Omaha — it was out on the West Coast. We got back to Omaha and we met with David Sokol, who was the big holder, beside from Walter. And we agreed on a price. And I remember Walter saying to Dave, “Don’t negotiate with Warren. (Laughs) You know, he’ll tell you to forget and he’ll do something else.”
And we bought it. So it was kind of a weird structure from the start, and we had a public utility holding up any (UNINTEL) deal with and all kinds of things. And it’s evolved, and it now has us with 91% roughly, and it has Walter’s estate — and I don’t know where that goes at all. And Walter never talked to me about it, and I never asked him about it.
But it’s, one way or another, interest connected with him, and the estate now. Close to eight, I guess. And Greg’s got one. And, you know, from our standpoint, if we made a deal with — if they ever came to us and (UNINTEL) just wanted to do something, you know, we’d say, “Fine.” We’ll do the same thing with Greg if he wanted to, and he probably would want to, I mean.
But from our standpoint, I’ve never seen any decision remotely — if I thought that would make a difference, you know, he just wouldn’t be the right kind of person to run Berkshire. And the problem, of course, is that you’ve got lots of process that can be involved with insiders and everything.
And as long as I’m alive, you know, my interests are 100% with Berkshire. And the board, and probably and to some extent a little reluctantly, but they’d just say, “Well, Warren thinks the deal’s OK. It must be OK.” Which is true. (Laughs)
So I could make a deal with anybody and it doesn’t get all messed up with process. But on the other hand, if I’m not around, you know, the pressures are to directors to do whatever the lawyers tell them to do, and the lawyers tell them to do this and that.
And then they want to bring in investment bankers to make evaluations. And the whole thing is a game from that point forward. And it’s expensive. It takes a lot of time. So it would be better if it happened while I’m alive and around, but there’s no reason — we’d rather have 100% than 91%, obviously, because more earnings for Berkshire.
But there’s no reason to try and do anything with either the Scott interests or Greg, unless they want to do it. And the logical thing is if anything happened with the Scotts, we’d certainly offer it to Greg. But who knows what happens in the future.
The one thing I can guarantee you, Berkshire Hathaway holders will never be taken advantage of, and, you know, you can sue my estate or something like that (Laughs) if anybody felt differently about that. It isn’t going to happen. But it’s a lot easier if it’s done while I’m around, actually, than if it’s done later. But —
CHARLIE MUNGER: I wish we had 20 more conflicts of interest just like it.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. (Laughter) Yeah. That’s exactly true. Yeah. No, it’s a perfectly logical question. But it was not a problem. And any answer that’s arrived at will be good for all concerned. And right now, I’ve got no feeling that — I have no knowledge at all of where the stock that the Scotts have goes or how they feel about it or anything.
And that’s up to them. You know, Walter was our partner. As far as we’re concerned, we treat anybody connected with him as our partner. And they know that and they don’t have to worry about us taking advantage of them.
And if they don’t do anything, we can understand that. If they want to do something, we can understand that. It’s a good question, though. Thank you.
10. Munger: I’m willing to risk investing in China
WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Becky?
BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Steve Blackmore in Bozemon, Montana. This is to Charlie. He says, “In the past you’ve made favorable statements about investing in China, in part based upon valuation metrics. What is your opinion now, and how much weight do you put on the actions of the government in your analysis?”
BECKY QUICK: “Do the recent communist party activities in China, including human rights violations, blatant cyber theft from U.S. companies and others, crackdowns on speech from business and media, et cetera, cause you to change your opinion on investing in China? And how do you evaluate the clear dangers of investing under authoritarian regimes, as recently evidenced by Russian atrocities in Ukraine?”
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, those are good questions, and there’s no question about the fact that the government of China has worried the investors from the United States who invest in China. More in recent months in years than he did in the earlier periods. So there’s been some tension.
And it’s affected the prices of some of the Chinese stocks, particularly internet stocks. Just in the last day or two the Chinese leader has sort of reversed course on that, and said he went too far and he’s going to pull way back and so on and so on. So we’re having some hopeful signs.
But yes, there are more difficulties investing in, I mean, dealing with a regime in China than there are in the United States. And it’s different. It’s a long way away, and they’ve got their own culture and their own loyalties and so on and so on.
And the reason that I invested in China is I could get so much better companies at so much lower prices, and I was willing to take a little bit of a risk to get into the better companies at the lower prices. Other people might reach the opposite conclusion. And everybody is more worried about China now than they were two or three years ago. So that’s just the way it is.
WARREN BUFFETT: I have nothing to add. (Laughter) (Applause)
11. The benefits of Berkshire’s insurance float
WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Station eight.
TOM RINGE: Hi Warren and Charlie, my name is Tom Ringe. I’m from Wayne, Pennsylvania. It’s great to be back here after two years. Thank you very much.
WARREN BUFFETT: Thanks for coming.
TOM RINGE: In this year’s letter, you talked about insurance float, the evolution of float, the per share float, the effect on repurchase to increase the per share float. And in regard to the repurchase, I would say thank you as your partner for your careful repurchase, as well as careful issuance of our shares.
TOM RINGE: My question is about your expectation for the likelihood that float will be stable and the cost will be zero or close to that over time, with adverse years from time to time.
What about Berkshire’s insurance businesses give you the confidence to make that statement when your competitors are trying to do the same thing, but haven’t been able to come close to achieving Berkshire’s record in cost and growth of float? Thank you.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, well, they really aren’t trying to do the same thing, which is kind of interesting. The answer to your question is we wouldn’t be in the business unless it was my judgment that the likelihood, the weighted probabilities are higher that the float will be useful to us rather than costly to us.
And nobody will know the answer to that for a very long time. So far, so good, but it is a judgment. And absolutely I could be wrong about it. But, you know, I think both Charlie and I would say that we think the odds are that it’s weighing better, and the odds are pretty good, and that we’re quite well-positioned to do it if anybody does it. But, you know, did we know 9/11 was coming? Or, you know, I mean, it is not a sure thing.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Just think of what the potential is, though, when you’re reviewing it. If we could buy common stocks we were virtually sure would give us 8% after taxes with our whole float, that would be a hell of a lot of money.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, $11 billion. I can tell you what it’d be. (Laughs) $11 billion or $12 billion.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yes, and it’s an enormous amount of money.
WARREN BUFFETT: Annually.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yes. And the float has been growing, so relax. (Laughter) But we’re glad to have the float.
WARREN BUFFETT: But Charlie’s talking a couple of ifs there, if we could earn it, and if we could. The answer is, you know, it’s our job and we think we can do it as well as anybody, or we wouldn’t be doing it. But it’s our job to figure out what businesses we want to be in, and when they don’t make sense, reluctantly, occasionally, to give up on them, like the textile business.
But those are the hard decisions. And insurance, I didn’t have the faintest idea back in 1967 when Jack Ringwalt stopped by the office at about a quarter of 12:00. And Charlie or I set him up. And Jack, about once a year, he’d get mad at the regulators.
He just didn’t like being regulated. And he’d say to himself, you know, “I’m going to sell this damn thing.” And Charlie caught him one day and he said, “Jack was in heat.” You know, I said, “Bring him around.” So he came up quarter of 12:00, and Jack said he wanted to get rid of this damn business.
The regulators were driving him nuts or something. And I said, “Fine, I’ll buy it.” And I said, “What price do you want?” And he said, “Like, $50 a share then.” I said, “Fine, we’ve done it. We don’t need an audit, we don’t need anything.”
And then Jack started, and then he says, “Well.” Immediately he really changed his mind, but he was too honorable to back out. So he said, “Well, I suppose you’ll want me to sell you the agencies.” And I said, “No.” And, of course if I’d said yes, then he’d say, “Well, then we can’t do it.”
So I just said, “No, you keep them, Jack,” you know. And he says, “I suppose you’ll want me to do,” and I said, “No, no, I won’t want you to do that.” He was hoping I would just give him an out. But after doing that for 15 or 20 minutes, he saw that I was going to agree to everything he said, and he said he’d sell it to me at $50. So he forward through. And that was that. And, (CHEER) you know, it was pure luck. And Jack —
CHARLIE MUNGER: Now, but Warren, we really like our float, don’t we?
WARREN BUFFETT: Pardon me?
CHARLIE MUNGER: We really like our float.
WARREN BUFFETT: Oh, yeah.
CHARLIE MUNGER: We love it.
WARREN BUFFETT: No, we’ve made the most of it, but we didn’t make the most of it until Ajit came along. (Laughs) And, you know, who knew that the guy was going to walk into my office in 1986 and, you know, I would decide that he was the guy to make this damn thing work that I hadn’t been able to make work the way I wanted it to?
And who knew that GEICO would come along later? There’s just all kinds of things. The one thing you have to do is be prepared when opportunity comes. You really do have to just move. And fortunately I operate in an environment, and I wouldn’t operate in any other environment, I’d get out of there, but I operate in an environment where I can do it.
And it would be crazy of the board to say, “We want to set up a committee to review every acquisition,” and all that. And I would say, “That’s fine, but you can work with somebody else because (Laughs) I just don’t like to go through all that stuff.”
You know, I’ve got other things to do with the rest of my life. There’s so much luck, but you do have to be mentally prepared to do something when it makes sense, and do it big time, and do it instantly. And then you’ve got to be sure you’ve got the resources to do it.
CHARLIE MUNGER: The relative absence of bureaucracy at Berkshire —
WARREN BUFFETT: Unbelievable.
CHARLIE MUNGER: —has made the company a lot of extra money for a very, very long time.
WARREN BUFFETT: And it’s made my life happier.
CHARLIE MUNGER: And yes, that’s ideal. (Applause)
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, but in the end, we are extraordinarily well-positioned to do exactly what we want to do with float, while at the same time never putting ourselves in the position, never coming close to making a promise we can’t keep. We had two small insurance subsidiaries well before Ajit, with two companies I had bought.
One I really didn’t know that much about, the other one I did it all by myself. And they were disasters.
And left alone, which they could’ve been, they’d have gone bankrupt. And we just didn’t want to do it.
So, you know, we could pay the liabilities if the parent company got involved, or we put it in another insurance company or something, and we did it.
12. “I look at Berkshire as a painting”
WARREN BUFFETT: I mean, Berkshire, you know, in a crazy way, I look at Berkshire as a painting. You know, and it’s unlimited in size. It’s got an ever-expanding canvas and I get to paint what I want. And if somebody wants to paint something else, then I’ll (Laughs) get a smaller little thing and I’ll paint away.
And, you know, I actually, you know, I don’t know anything about paintings. Take me to an art museum, and you know, all I really want to know is where the men’s room is. But, (Laughter) you know, I’m just not interested. And other people look at paintings and they see something.
And then they see something additionally later on. I mean, they really have a different sort of perception ability in relation to that. And to me Berkshire’s a painting and I get to paint. And, you know, the object, obviously I want my partners to come out well in it.
But the real thing I like is the painting. And as long as, you know, it’s in my head and I see different things in it as I go along, and you know, it’s, you know, the closest thing I can come to enjoying myself every minute of the day. And I don’t prescribe it for other people.
And occasionally I, well, not so occasionally, but I see things in the painting, you know, I think, “Well, I should’ve done that differently.” And I go back and paint it over. And it’s satisfying. And who knows why human beings react in that manner.
But I do know what makes me happy and what doesn’t make me happy. And I found what makes me happy. So why in the world would I change it? (Laughs) So that’s a short answer to a question that I can’t remember what it was. (Laughter)
13. Economic stimulus was needed, but it has fueled inflation
WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Becky?
BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Andrew Kesaw (PH) from Minneapolis, Minnesota.
He says, “Last year Warren mentioned that inflation had noticeably impacted the prices that Berkshire’s businesses were paying and charging. Given those inflationary trends have continued, and in some cases accelerated since last year’s meeting, could you comment on how this particular inflationary period ranks among previous such periods in the United States, like the 1970s and 1980s? And what can American businesses and citizens do to reduce the negative impacts that inflation brings about?”
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we’ve sort of attacked them, what you do yourself, and then, you know, you develop the skills that people are willing to pay for in the future, regardless of what the unit of exchange is. But in terms of inflation in our own businesses it’s extraordinary how much we’ve seen.
You know, I think you interviewed Irv Blumkin at the Furniture Mart, and two years, you know, the prices have just kept coming in higher for these things. And we sell them for higher prices, and people have more money than they’ve had before. And they like to buy.
And there are certain things they can buy. It’s like during World War II, you had a lot of money created, and people couldn’t buy cars, and they couldn’t buy refrigerators, and they couldn’t even buy as much sugar or coffee or things as they wanted.
And they had little stamps for gasoline and all kinds of things. Well, eventually if you get a lot of money in people’s hands and you don’t have very many goods, prices go up. You can do all kinds of things to, you know, try and talk it down.
And, of course, inflation is never the same. Nothing in economics is the same the second time after it happens than the first, because the first affects people’s attitudes in the second, and their attitudes always influence the activity itself.
I mean, it is an interesting phenomenon. People write a textbook, and they write it based on the last experience. And people read the textbooks, so they behave differently next time. And then they wonder why they’re getting a different result than they got the time before.
So anyway, we have sent out lots and lots and lots, and when I say “we” I mean the United States government, the government has sent out lots of money to people. And at some point, you know, the money can’t be worth as much as it was when there was less money out.
Here’s an interesting figure that I think probably will astound you. It astounds me, anyway. The Federal Reserve, every Thursday, puts out a balance sheet. And the Federal Reserve and Treasury, they’re complicated institutions. But they do put out this kind of consolidated statement of all the various Federal Reserve banks, all these things that have entered into legislation over the years.
But there’s a balance sheet. And 15 years ago, roughly, if you look, you know, the Federal Reserve issues those notes I talked about a while back. And there’s the current one. (Laughs) And they print these pieces of paper. And they, one way or another, they get into the hands of people.
Well, the interesting thing is, people said cash is dead and all that sort of thing, you know, cashless society. Well, there were $800 billion, go back ten or 15 years, about $800 billion of currency in circulation. And if you look at last Thursday’s report, you’ll see there’s something like, now, $2.2 trillion of currency in circulation.
$2.2 trillion. Now, there’s about 330 million people in the United States. Let’s look at it that way. And with 330 million people, and you have almost $2.3 trillion of currency in circulation, that’s $7,000 per person, every man, woman, and child, in theory, has $7,000 worth of currency.
Well, you know, that isn’t right. But you do know that the Federal Reserve’s bookkeeping is essentially right. They’ve got that much that’s out there. I don’t know where it is. I mean, I don’t know whether it’s in Russia. I don’t know whether it’s in South America. I don’t know where, you know, I don’t know whether Charlie’s got it all.
I mean, (Laughter) it’s a staggering sum, you know? Cash is dead, and yet we, on average, have $7,000 for every person in the United States. Now, while you’re absorbing that, think for a moment what would happen if the U.S. government said, well, they work it out in private and they decide that they’re going to send, the Federal Reserve, and I’m not going to blame the Federal Reserve for this, someone back in Washington decides they’re going to send out $1 million to every household in the United States.
And there are 130 million households in the United States or something like that, you know? And they’re going to mail you $1 million in cash. And there were a couple provisions attached to it. One is if you talked about it in the next 30 days, the money disappeared.
So just like in one of those old TV shows or something, and poof, disappears. And after 30 days you could spend it. Well, all of a sudden, the household wealth of the United States, the Federal Reserve puts out an estimate, is $130 trillion or something like that.
So basically, you’ve doubled the household wealth. And all you’ve done is mailed out people, but then you don’t tell them you’re doing it with everybody. You just say they won the lottery, or whatever it may be. And now you’ve got an amount equal to household wealth.
On average people have doubled. They’ve got this extra $130 trillion of wealth. And in a month, they can spend it. Well, what’s going to happen? Well, prices are going to go up. But are they going to go up immediately? Well, you don’t know the other guy got it, you just know you’ve got it, so you don’t really feel like you’ve got to rush out and buy things.
But as soon as word gets around, well, we’ve mailed out, if you look at the amount we’ve distributed, the federal government, I’m just talking about the distribution of resources, we’re talking numbers like that. And it affects prices.
It has to affect prices. If you had ten times as much, if you went home and you found out you had ten times the net worth you had yesterday but everybody else has the same thing, it doesn’t increase the amount of bread in the economy or the number of cars.
It just means that the price, the value of this is going to go down. And it’s purchasing power. You can’t buy more than exists. So it’s a very strange period where we have lots of money sent out to people, who one way or another were getting it, that they didn’t find as many things to buy as before.
And we had supply chain disruption. And you have all these things happen. But the end of it is they go into the Nebraska Furniture Mart and they just start buying things. And they do it with our other companies. And they do it in very peculiar ways.
And now they’re buying, I mean, one thing, jewelry stores were, generally speaking, not a very good business. And two years ago, every landlord that had a jewelry store, or multiple jewelry stores in their mall, you know, was wondering how they were going to get their rent.
And now every jewelry store virtually is doing incredibly better than they ever dreamt with way less inventory, because people just come in and buy. They don’t wait for sales. You know, when they walk in the store they’re going to walk out and they’re going to have bought something.
And they paid for it. They’ve got the money. So we are seeing an unleashing of the fact that we’ve just mailed a lot of money to people, one way or another. It’s very indirect, and it all gets complicated when you talk about a big system.
But this is what’s happened. And I will guarantee you that if we mail out $1 million to every household in the United States, and you don’t know that it’s happened, you know, you don’t really expect much to happen in behavior tomorrow.
But somehow, at some point, and then if you start doing that every month, we’ll say, and people really know you’re doing it, then they start anticipating it and buying ahead of time and forward. I mean, there’s a million things that happen in economics.
But the answer is we’ve had a lot of inflation and it was almost impossible not to have, if you’re going to mail out the kind of money we’ve mailed out. And it’s probably a good thing we did it. In fact, I think there was one point when the Federal Reserve, which in fact creates the money, if they hadn’t done it your lives would be a lot worse, a whole lot worse now.
And that was an important decision. And that’s why you’ve had inflation. And heaven knows, I mean, it could end. You can throw the country into recession. You can do all kinds of things. The country’s going to have recessions, incidentally, and it’s going to have depressions periodically.
And things will happen differently. And you’ll read a newspaper today and you’ll wonder a year from now, “Why was I reading the newspaper a year ago?” I mean, it’s just the way it works. When I bought the first stock in 1942, did I know everything was going to happen afterwards?
Of course not. I didn’t know a damn thing. But I just needed to have one idea. And that idea wasn’t really well-formed, it was just probably the way practically every kid felt about the country when we’d just gone into a war, you know? We thought America was going to win.
And if America was going to win then, it was going to win just generally. And savings bonds were paying 2.9%. I learned that because we bought them. They called them war bonds originally, and then they called them defense bonds, and then they called them savings (Laughs) bonds.
But they were the same thing. And you print loads of money and money’s going to be worth less. Not worthless. I got in trouble doing that one time at CNBC, because I said it was going to be worth, separately, less. But it got contracted down to “worthless”. (Laughter) So it took me a few years to learn to separate those words somehow. Anyway, that’s everything I know about economics and more. And Charlie can probably improve on it.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, it happened on a scale which would never seen before. Those checks are just mailed out to everybody who claimed to have a business and claimed to have employees. They’ve probably drowned the country in money for a while. And as you say, they probably had to do it. But it was something that had never been done on that scale before.
WARREN BUFFETT: But we had a problem we hadn’t had before.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yes, oh (Laughs) no, I’m not saying it wasn’t a good idea.
WARREN BUFFETT: I mean, in my book, [Federal Reserve Chairman] Jay Powell is a hero. I mean, it’s very simple. I mean, he did what he had to do, you know? If he had done nothing, I mean, he would be, you know, it’d be very easy to engage in what you would call thumb sucking then. And plenty of, I shouldn’t say plenty of, but there are other Fed chairmen that would’ve been sucking their thumbs. And the world would’ve fallen around them. And nobody would’ve exactly blamed them, they would’ve blamed the virus and the Chinese and all kinds of things.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, the really interesting company is Japan, where first they bought back all the debt, then they started buying back all the common stocks. Now, that’s really weird. And what did they get? Twenty five years of stasis. Who would’ve predicted that?
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, nobody predicted anything. I mean, (Laughs) there’s nobody’s predictions that we’re interested in, including our own. I mean, it’s very simple. What we do know is that we can deserve your trust, and there’s no reason to do things that don’t deserve it.
And we can’t tell, but basically we think we’re trying to build a Berkshire that can’t withstand a nuclear exchange, but it can withstand as much as anything that we can do anything about. And that leaves us feeling good. It doesn’t leave us feeling perfect. We’d like to even promise you more than that, but we can’t promise more than that. So it’s very simple.
14. Should GAAP accounting rules be changed?
WARREN BUFFETT: And with that one we’ll move on to 18. Let’s see, that’s station nine.
ELI ABUSHAKAR: Dear Mr. Buffet and Mr. Munger, I’m Eli Abushakar (PH) from Montreal, Canada. I would like to thank you for everything you’ve done for us, your fellow shareholder.
My question is regarding the GAAP rules. If you were to change it, what would you change? What would it look like? Thank you.
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I would resign the job. What would you do, Charlie? (Laughter)
No, it’s an impossible problem. Because first of all you have to decide what GAAP is supposed to reflect. And it doesn’t reflect value. But in certain cases, of course, it is important to say that this is value and so on.
I mean, it’s a convention and it is done so that the auditor generally is protected, because otherwise everybody sues everybody in this country for anything. And it’s designed to cause people who want to report a given amount of whatever is desired by the market to largely be able to do it.
And I don’t know how I would write the rules. I mean, I’ve watched people who I would be delighted to have live next to me, you know, if I was going away for two weeks and my kids were to stay at somebody’s house, it’d be fine with me if they stayed there.
If I lost my wallet someplace and they found it, they’d return it to me. But they’d play games with any number that came to them. And, of course, it’s a very awkward thing to be on the audit committee of a company where people are playing around with the numbers.
And they don’t want you, if you raise a stink you’ve got all kinds of problems. And I actually wrote something some years ago. I was kind of anticipating your question about 15 years ago, I guess. And I wrote four suggestions for questions to be asked of the audit committee.
And I don’t know whether I was on the audit committee then of Coke or whatever. But anyway, I mean, it was just clear to me what was happening. But you really had to follow the charade, or you got in all kinds of trouble for doing that too. And so, I just put four questions out that I would want to know.
And they were perfectly logical questions. And then nobody adopted them. I mean, (Laughs) and the system was fine as it was. The auditors got sued, but not that often. And the SEC had lots of rules, and I admired the SEC enormously. I think the country’s better off because of the SEC.
But it is a hopeless question, or problem to devise rules that people can’t get around. My friend that was a writer said, “It’s not the illegal things that are outrageous, it’s the legal things.” It’s very hard. You try and it’s worthwhile.
You need an SEC. But the SEC can’t really stop stuff that, you know, you would find outrageous if explained. And the auditors have the same question. I mean, the auditors, they want rules, and they want processes, and they want it to be so they can operate.
Charlie, he was on the audit committee of Salomon, and we had probably literally millions of contracts where people put numbers in and he found that $20 million, we had the largest auditing firm in the country then, Arthur Andersen, as I remember Charlie —
CHARLIE MUNGER: They’re gone now.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, they’re gone now. But they were (Laughter) the largest. And Charlie found a $20 million error I think one time in an audit.
CHARLIE MUNGER: They called it a plug.
When your accountant starts talking about a plug, it’s not good. (Laughter)
15. Salomon’s “floating plug”
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I’ll tell you a story I haven’t told before. (Laughs)
You saw in that movie, people over here saw me testify in August before a subcommittee who were out, you know, to get their way. And I just decided, you know, I was just going to answer every question honestly, and I was not going to try and draw up everything.
And then so I just sat in front of them, and said what I knew and didn’t know. And one of the things I said, which was absolutely true, is that I’d only been there ten days or so at Salomon, but I said, “I really haven’t seen anything yet that strikes me as terrible in accounting.”
But I’ve been there ten days. But this guy who got us in all this trouble, so far he’s the only thing I’ve found. I don’t know what else is going to be found, how in the hell could I know what was going on in a place that was doing, you know, incredible numbers of transactions and everything?
Well, I said, you know, “What I’m seeing, the accounting strikes me as legit.” About a month later, I was so happy I’d testified earlier and not later, a very fine CFO, and these are decent people. They’re very decent people. And he comes in and he said, “Warren, there’s probably something you should know.”
And I said, “Well, what’s that?” And he said, well, 12 years earlier, or whatever it was, Salomon had merged with Phibro, which was a huge trading company. Salomon was a huge investment banking company. And they became this huge powerhouse.
And he said that 12 years ago when we merged with them, we sort of couldn’t find exactly, they were on a trade basis and we were on a settlement basis. And then he said we never really figured out how to put the books together. This was the largest audit company in the United States, Arthur Andersen, that’s responsible for signing this thing.
So, we had this number and every day it moves around. And it’s just put in there to make assets equal liabilities. (Laughter) And, you know, today it’s $173,412,000, you know, and down to the penny. And tomorrow it’ll be something different, you know?
And I thought to myself, “I am sure glad I testified before Congress a month ago, because I did not know then.” But if they ever ask me again, I’m going to tell them exactly what happened. “We’ve just got this number that floats around every day, and we haven’t found it in 12 years, and Arthur Andersen doesn’t know where it is.” (Laughter) And, you know, you’ve got to make the assets equal to the liabilities, right? So what else do you do? And that’s exactly what happened. And strange things happen in this world. This one guy —
CHARLIE MUNGER: I think the name was the floating plug. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, you know, yeah. And Charlie’s on the audit committee. (Laughter)
Yeah, the one thing I’ve always suggested, nobody ever wants to do this, and I can understand why, but you’ve got trillions of dollars worth of contracts and everything that people are putting down little numbers for every day at banks and investment banks and all over the world.
I mean, commodity traders, and at Berkshire we stick down, you know, there’s certain hedging the even the regulators want us to do in terms of giving utilities. And we put a little number in. And I made this suggestion once or twice that if you really want to do something sort of interesting, you know, just get some young guy that, give them a couple of weeks and pick the hundred most kind of complicated, long-term, you know, lots of wording derivative contracts.
And look at what one side who promises to do something values it at, and look at what the other side, who also reports. You know, and just let them do it for 100 operations at random. I’d just like to know if we’re valuing a contract at $28 million, the other guy’s valuing it at $33 million.
You know, and you’ve got the same auditing firm in both cases. And they’re signing their name to it. I don’t think anybody’s ever done anything (Laughs) with that suggestion. And, you know, that would be the first thing I would do, actually, if I really wanted to sort of dig into what was happening in accounting.
But there’s a lot of things in life you can’t change. And nobody is going to go looking for ways to create lawsuits and newspaper stories, (Laughs) and all kinds of things. And I don’t blame them.
16. How to get a fairness opinion at a discount
WARREN BUFFETT: Listen, I had brought one thing I just couldn’t resist.
I was hoping I’d get a question, so I’ll ask it myself. (Laughter)
I was hoping to get a question that how could some guy be so idiotic as to propose a price of $848.02 or whatever it was, or is, for Alleghany Corp? I mean, isn’t that getting a little scientific, you know? (Laughs)
And, of course, I did provide, when I made the offer, that it be $850, less whatever was paid to whatever investment banker they wanted to select, Alleghany in this case, and they’re bound to have to do it because Delaware law is developed in such a way that the directors are protected if they get expert opinions, all that sort of thing.
So, I don’t fault anybody in the system. But I just thought it might be useful, actually, maybe to Delaware judges someday, Delaware statute makers, maybe people that are writing papers, who knows.
But I suggested that we just, since I’m willing to pay $850 a share for the place as is, you know, if the advisory fees are $10 million or $40 million, that it makes a difference to someone.
And it’s always made a difference to us as the buyer, but that’s just the way the game was. Well, there’s a little history to that. And I went back and there’s been twice, and nobody’s ever paid any attention to this, but there’s been twice in the history of Berkshire Hathaway, 57 years, twice that Berkshire was required to get a fairness opinion.
And it was perfectly logical that we be required to get a fairness opinion in those two cases, because in one case Diversified Retailing, which was a company I was invested in, in both of them that came out of our partnership, but one had a group of shareholders that were different than the other group of shareholders at Berkshire, and the two wanted to merge, so you have two companies, with me being the biggest beneficiary between.
And it really wasn’t up to me to determine the ratio, I mean, even though I am the most involved. But I had a little more of one company than the other. So anyway, a fairness in opinion was required. And this has only been twice in the history of Berkshire that one was required.
So naturally I went to Charlie, and I said, “Charlie,” you know, “We do have,” I mean, Charlie told me, he knew it better than I did, “We need a fairness opinion in this case.” And I said, you know, “I know what’s fair, you know what’s fair, Sandy knows what he thinks is fair.”
If the three of us owned it, in ten minutes we could’ve worked out a deal that all three of us regarded as fair. But because there were public shareholders and everything, it wasn’t right to do it that way. And the first one, we have two of these, but the first one was November 27th, 1978.
And I told the shareholders, essentially, that my personal belief is that both Diversified and Berkshire shareholders will benefit from the merger, but I will vote for the merger only if a majority of the shares, which are voted by other shareholders of each company, are voted to support, which was fine.
I committed myself, you know, to let the people decide whether this was fair. But on top of that, we needed to get a fairness opinion from an investment bank with a big name and everything. And so I said to Charlie, “You know, these things are going for $1 million or $2 million,” where they get some guy that they hired last week and he writes up a little thing, and then we get a bill for $1 million or $2 million.
They really haven’t done anything, they don’t know either company and, you know, there’s a million things they’re not going to know about it, but they’re going to write an opinion. And we need the opinion. I said, “So what do I do?” And I go to Charlie with these kind of problems.
And Charlie said, “Warren, it’s very simple.” He said, “Pick out ten prestigious investment banks and do exactly what I say.” (Laughs) So, “OK Charlie, what do I do when I get these ten?” And he says, “Well, put them in order, one through ten.”
And he said, “Call the guy at the top of the list and tell him you’ll pay him $60,000 for doing a fairness opinion. And you know that it’s an insulting price and it’s ridiculous for him to do it because it’ll affect what he can get from other people down the line that will look back and say, ‘Well, Buffett only paid $60,000, why should I pay $2 million?’”
And he says, “Just tell them that that’s what you’ll pay. And if they’re insulted by it, which they probably should be, that you’ll go to number two and offer them the same deal, and you’ll just keep going down till you get to number ten. And if you don’t have anybody by number ten, you’ve told the other people, you’ll come back to number one again and you’ll say, ‘Well, I’ll pay $80,000,’ and then you’ll go down the list and example.”
Well, (Laughter) so I picked ten names out and number one name was Jack Shad. And Jack Shad was a friend of Tom Murphy’s, he was a friend of Bill Ruane’s, and he was running E.F. Hutton. And he was a very, very, very successful investment banker.
I didn’t know him as well as the others, but I’d met him through my friends. So, I called him up and I said, “Jack,” I said, “I’ve got this crazy request.” And he says, “Only because everybody admires you so much and my friends are your friends,” and blah, blah, blah, and E.F. Hutton is so well-regarded.
I said, “I’m going to ask you something that is totally against your interest, and I fully understand the fact that you’re going to say, ‘You’re an idiot to call me on this,’ and slam down the phone.” But I said, “Jack, here’s our procedure.”
And I described this procedure that he gets called first, and if he turns it down then I go to Paine Webber, and then I go to, and (UNINTEL). And I tell him, “There’s these ten people. And if we don’t get any yeses, I’m going to come back to you again and I’ll offer you $75,000, and we’ll do the same thing till somebody says yes.”
And I said, “Jack, you know, but you are the first call, so $60,000 and it’s going to screw up your business if you do this, because every client you get in the future is going to say, ‘Well, you did it for Diversified Retailing and Berkshire, and why in the world should we pay you $2 million when he paid you $60,000?’”
And Jack said, “Don’t worry about it Warren. (Laughs) I can take care of that.” He says, “We’re in.” And so we got a fairness opinion written for one side. And now the next call I made was to Paine Webber, and I gave them the same story. And I said, “E.F. Hutton was dumb enough to take the one side for $60,000.” You know, “I don’t know why the hell they’re doing it, they’re destroying their reputation and all that.” And Paine Webber said, “We’ll take the other side for $60,000.” (Laughter) So we have a thing that describes the whole process.
CHARLIE MUNGER: They got (UNINTEL). They sent out an amiable alcoholic that they had to do something with.
Well, what they did (Laughter) was they each billed us for $60,000 and we paid it.
That’s what you get for $60,000.
WARREN BUFFETT: No, no, no. (Laughter) We got the same thing everybody else got, Charlie.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, I know.
WARREN BUFFETT: And, of course, Jack Shad, this was 1978, he was appointed chairman of the SEC (Laughs) for seven years. I mean, but Jack liked to do business. And it was true, it didn’t hurt him. They paid us $60,000 and then they went back and charged somebody else $2 million, you know, the next week.
And it’s all play money. And so we did the same thing when we got to Blue Chip Stamps, where we were similarly conflicted four or five years later. We went back to the same two guys. And there had been a lot of inflation and everything like that.
So we said $110,000 then. I’ve got the prospectus for that. And both of them said, you know, “Send it in, don’t worry about our other clients, we’ll figure out some story to tell them,” you know, and whatever it may be. But I just thought it would be interesting to, at some point, have people realize that it’s not play money.
Somebody pays it. And it’s a game. And, you know, but it’s what passes muster in Delaware, and the directors will have it explained to them by the lawyers that they’re not going to get sued if they do it in a certain kind of way. And, you know, so I just decided that somebody at some point ought to (Laughs) point out what actually is happening in this situation.
And that’s why we did it that way. And, you know, it may go down with our earlier attempts to educate the world on the realities of finance and its various interactions, and why it’s better to teach your son to be an investment banker than to be an electrician, you know, or something. But you’ve got an eccentric chairman and that’s what he did. (Laughs) Charlie, how do you feel about this whole matter? It was your idea originally.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, we’re a little peculiar. (Laughter) And all the peculiarities are not bad.
17. Charlie gets an insurance claim paid
WARREN BUFFETT: I didn’t talk to Charlie before I did this this time. But Charlie has given me four ideas together on extremely practical matters, I mean, they just changed everything. I think you really ought to tell them about the experience with the fraud company, (Laughs) Charlie.
CHARLIE MUNGER: About what?
WARREN BUFFETT: About the fraud claim, you know, the Fidelity claim with the guy, you know, he had the very well-known insurance company that, we don’t have to name names. But, you know, when you basically told him, “Just raise the stakes to make the game fair.” This was back in the 1960s. Do you remember that?
CHARLIE MUNGER: I don’t remember.
WARREN BUFFETT: Oh, well I remember.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, tell it then. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: Charlie had this tiny little operation which he ran his fund, also had a seat on the Pacific Coast Stock Exchange. The firm was called Wheeler and Munger. It was called Wheeler and Munger at first, later it changed itself to Munger Wheeler, and Jack Wheeler said, “Well, pretty soon it’ll be Munger and Company, but that’s OK.” Jack Wheeler was a very interesting guy, and he had the specialist position in General Motors and a few things. And some employee stole, like, I don’t know, $12,000 or something like that from the firm.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah. Well, I remember, he had the trading tickets.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Some guy steals some money, and Charlie’s firm, Wheeler and Munger, was required to have a Fidelity bond and all these things that governed dishonest employees and all of that sort. So this guy’s clearly dishonest. He’s clearly stolen the money.
So Charlie puts in a claim for $12,000 or something like that, whatever the loss was, and sends it to this very big and prestigious insurance company. And, of course, the insurance company denies this claim. They say, you know, “The guy really wasn’t employed, he doesn’t exist, you don’t have a dog,” you know, I mean, the whole thing.
And Charlie gets this letter back and they’re not going to pay the claim. And so Charlie writes a letter to this very well-known big name person that runs the insurance company. And he said, “Look,” he said, “We have this $12,000 claim.” And he said, “That guy stole the money and we thought we had an insurance policy against people stealing, and paid us if people stole money.”
And he said, “We’re in this very interesting position, because you’ve got a bunch of people on the payroll, and they’re going to get their weekly check or monthly check, whatever they do, so they just say, ‘We’re not going to pay,’ and life goes on.
“Whereas I’m sitting here and I’ve got my time, I’ve got work on this thing, and it isn’t worth the $12,000 for me to fool around with this claim against the company, and they’ll appeal it,” and all these things. So he said, “I know that you would be offended by the thought that you might be using this inequality of bargaining position to avoid paying the claim.
“That never could be your intention. So, what I suggest in order to really live up to your code of behavior is why don’t we make the $12,000 claim, we’ll just multiply it by ten and call it $120,000 either way. And if you lose, you pay me $120,000. If I lose, I’ll pay you $120,000, and now it’s worth my while.”
And (Laughter) he addresses the letter to the chairman and says that to the guy. He gets a $12,000 check by return mail. (Laughter)
It’s not a bad lesson. He’s told me two others, but the tricks are too good. I don’t even want to share them now, I may use them myself someday.
18. Why Buffett wouldn’t buy all the bitcoin for $25
WARREN BUFFETT: OK, let’s go to Becky.
BECKY QUICK: We got a lot of questions on this topic. I’ll ask this one that came from Raj. He says, “Have you changed your views on bitcoin and/or cryptocurrency in any (Laughter) respect? I’m conflicted about this,” because his own views have slightly evolved during the past two years from bitcoin is a fraud and waste to bitcoin is in a speculative bubble but might have some uses.
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, (Laughs) I shouldn’t answer any question on the subject, but I will. You know, there’s all kinds of people watching this that are long bitcoin and there’s nobody that’s short, and nobody wants their windpipe stepped on. And I don’t blame them, I don’t like people to step on my windpipe.
But I would say this, that if the people in this room owned all of the farmland in the United States, and you offered me a 1% interest in it, and you said for a 1% interest in all the farmland in the United States, pay our group, well, let’s see ten, 20, pay us this bargain price, $25 billion, I’ll write you a check this afternoon, $25 billion, now I own 1% of the farmland.
If you tell me you own 1% of the apartment houses in the United States and you offer me a 1% interest, so I’ll have a 1% interest in all the apartment houses in the country, and you want whatever it may be for it, call it another $25 billion or something, I’ll write you a check. You know, it’s very simple.
Now, if you told me you owned all of the bitcoin in the world, and you offered it to me for $25, I wouldn’t take it, because what would I do with it? I have to sell it back to you one way or another. I mean, maybe not these same people, but it isn’t going to do anything.
The apartments are going to produce rental, and the farms are going to produce food, and if I’ve got all the bitcoin I’m back where whatever his name was, who may or may not have existed was, you know, 15 years ago. If I’ve got it all he could create a mystery about it.
But everybody knows what I’m like. I mean, so (Laughs) if I’m trying to get rid of it, you know, people will say, “Well, you know, why should I buy some bitcoin? Why don’t you call it Buffett Coin, you know, and make your own or something? Do something. But I’m not going to give you anything for it.”
And you’d be right, incidentally. But that explains the difference between productive assets and something that depends on the next guy paying you more than the last guy got. Now, net, if you look at it, a lot of commissions have been paid and, I mean, there’s all kinds of fictional costs that are very real that somebody has paid to a bunch of people who facilitate this game.
But whatever one group of the public has taken out, or one group of owners, has come in from other people. I mean, other people have entered the room and they move money around. But there’s no more money in the room, it just changed hands with a lot of maybe fraud and costs involved and, you know, a whole bunch of things.
You lose, you know, you forget the numbers or forget the equation. You can do that with a lot of things. I mean, it’s been done throughout history. Certain things have value that don’t produce something tangible. I mean, you can say a great painting, you know, probably will have some value 500 years from now.
It may not, but the odds are pretty good that if it was a big enough name at some point. There will be a few things. I mean, you know, you can find somebody to pay. If somebody wants to sell you a pyramid or something, and you can charge the viewers, you know, it’ll be around a long time and it would produce anything, but people will find it interesting to go there, because they’ve heard about the pyramids.
But basically assets, to have value they have to deliver something to somebody. And there’s only one currency that’s acceptable in the United States. I mean, you can come up with all kinds of things. We can put out Berkshire Coins or, you know, we can put out Berkshire Money or anything like that.
But we’d get in trouble, I guess, if we call it money. But in the end, this is money and there’s no reason in the world why the United States government, whose currency people prefer. I mean, literally there’s just under $2.3 trillion just of these little pieces of paper floating around someplace, $7,000 for every man, woman, and child in the United States, even though most of them probably aren’t in the United States. Who knows.
But this is the only thing that’s money. And anybody that thinks the United States is going to change to where they let Berkshire Money replace theirs, you know, is out of their mind. So anyway, with those few deficiencies, you know, whether it goes up or down in the next year or five years, ten years, I don’t know.
But the one thing I’m pretty sure of is that it doesn’t multiply, it doesn’t produce anything. It’s got a magic to it and people have attached magics to lots of things. I mean, it’s a goal in Wall Street, you know, to create magic, you know? We are not an insurance company, we’re a tech company.
Well, they’re an insurance company. But a dozen people or so have raised a lot of money, they just say, “Just don’t pay any attention to the fact that we sell insurance. We are a tech company.” Well, in the end they wrote insurance and overwhelmingly they’ve lost a lot of money since then. You can make up things that work well in getting money from other people and that’s why —
CHARLIE MUNGER: I have a slightly different way of looking at it. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: I’ll sell you some then.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, (Laughs) in my life I try and avoid things that are stupid and evil and make me look bad in comparison with somebody else. And bitcoin does all three. (Laughter)
And in the first place, it’s stupid because it’s very likely to go to zero.
In the second place, it’s evil because it undermines the Federal Reserve system and the national currency system, which we desperately need to maintain its integrity and government control and company on.
And third, it makes us look foolish compared to the communist leader in China. He was smart enough to ban bitcoin in China, and with all of our presumed advantages of civilization — (applause) — we are a lot dumber than the communist leader in China.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, and when 25% of the people of the country get mad because we’ve said what we said today, just remember Charlie spoke last, and was the most — (Laughter)
19. Increased tribalism is dangerous
WARREN BUFFETT: The one development that I really do think is actually important, but I don’t know any way to do anything about it, but my general sense, and there’s no way to prove it, but I essentially believe people are now behaving somewhat more tribal than they have for a long time.
And, I mean, people are always going to be partisan, and they’re going to have religious beliefs, they’re going to have all kinds of things. But it gets pretty tribal. And I speak from experience because I’ve been tribal. And, you know, we’re confessing today, and, you know, Nebraska football is tribal.
And when I watch a television set, and I see our guy, Nebraska, step out of bounds by a foot, but somehow the ref misses it and calls it “in,” and then they show six replays, I’ll continue to believe it was “in” even though it’s right in front of my eyes that they stepped out. You know, that’s tribal behavior.
And it’s fun. I mean, (Laughs) to participate in. But it can get very dangerous when one group of people say, “Two plus two is five,” and the other say, “Two plus two is three,” you know, and they’re going to give you those answers if you call them.
And the interesting thing is, to me at least, and partly because of my age. But I actually think, just from memory, that the last time that the country was seen as tribal was actually when I was a kid and Roosevelt was in: Either you hated Roosevelt or you loved him.
I mean, nobody cared about the fact Alf Landon was running, or Wendell Wilkie was running against him. They just had these feelings: They either had Roosevelt’s picture on the wall, and named their kids after Roosevelt, or they hated him and they thought he was going to, you know, “Oh, a third term?” and, you know, a million things.
And the country was very, very tribal in the ’30s, but Roosevelt’s tribe was bigger. And, in my opinion, they did some wonderful things. But I happened to grow up in a household where we didn’t get served dessert until we said something nasty about Roosevelt. I mean, and, believe me, if you don’t get dessert, you’re going to say something nasty about Roosevelt. (Laughs) And so you trained them young, and did, you know, all kinds of things.
And so, I think I’ve seen a period that wasn’t that way, when Eisenhower was running against Stevenson, or whatever it might be. I mean, you know, people had a partisan behavior, and they had a certain amount of “tribal” always. But I don’t think it’s a good development for society generally when people get tribal, regardless. (Applause) Charlie, what tribes are you a member of? (Laughs)
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, in California, we have a legislature which is completely jerrymandered so nobody can ever be thrown out by the voters. And, therefore, the only people in the legislature are insane rightist and insane leftists. And they get together every ten years, and there’s usually six moderates somewhere in the legislature, and so they re-jigger all the districts to throw them out, because neither part can stand them. Now, that is government in California. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah? And you live there and you have to go back? (Laughs)
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yes, yes.
WARREN BUFFETT: I’m sure you’ll —
CHARLIE MUNGER: And I prefer living there to living in Russia. (Laughter) (Applause)
WARREN BUFFETT: OK. Who haven’t we gotten in trouble with yet? (Applause)
Who was it, Lennie Bruce, that used to say, “Is there anyone I’ve forgotten to offend?”
20. Buffett’s favorite boss
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. Section 10, I believe.
SAHEJ: Hello, Mr. Buffet and Mr. Munger. My name is Sahej, I am from New Jersey. And I’m currently a freshman at Rutgers University. You knew quite early on that you wanted to be investors, and you’ve obviously been amazing at it.
What advice would you have for someone who’s still trying to figure out what they want to focus on and find their calling?
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, that is a very interesting question. Because I was very, very lucky. In that I found what I wanted to do because my dad happened to be in a business that he wasn’t interested in, but they had some books down there, and I loved my dad, and I’d go down and read the books and they interested me.
And, you know, I’m glad he wasn’t a professional boxer or something, or, you know, I wouldn’t have any teeth left or anything else. (Laughs) It was accident, just totally accident, but I do think you know it when you see it. And it doesn’t mean you can follow.
I would tell the students, as I wrote in the report, I mean, you know, “Find out what you love doing.” I mean, you spend most of your life doing it, and why in the world would you want to be around for a lifetime working with people that you didn’t like? Unless you had to, which sometimes happens. Just work for whomever you admire the most.
I gave a talk at Stanford one time. And somebody showed up at Tom Murphy’s office, I think, a couple of days later. That person was right. And, of course, it’s what I did when I got out of school. I wanted to work for Ben Graham. I mean, I didn’t care what I got paid, it didn’t make any di — you know, I just knew that that’s what I wanted to do.
And then I pestered him for three years and he finally hired me. And then I found somebody else that I’d even rather work for than Ben, who happened to be myself. (Laughter) And so I’ve been working for myself ever since. But I had about four bosses in my life. You know, I went down to The Lincoln Journal. Name slips my mind at the moment, he was a wonderful boss. And it was Coopersmith at J.C. Penney’s here in Omaha, and they all were wonderful people.
But I still preferred working for myself. And, of course, Charlie and I both worked for my grandfather, and we just didn’t find it that interesting. I don’t remember, why’d you ever decide to go to work at the store, Charlie? Charlie worked there in 1940, I worked —
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I worked just for the experience of working, I didn’t need the money. My father gave me an ample allowance and I also had a private business. So, I was kind of working as a lark in your grocery store.
WARREN BUFFETT: Twelve hours a day?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yes.
WARREN BUFFETT: At — for a lark?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, as a lark, yes.
WARREN BUFFETT: Do you consider that a good investment of your time? (Laughs) I mean, just looking back on it?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, I’d never done it before, and I wanted to have a little of that experience. And I wasn’t going to do it very long.
WARREN BUFFETT: Hmm. (Laughter) That sure as hell wasn’t the reason I worked. (Laughs)
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well — you know, I could give that young lady the advice. Figure out what you’re bad at and avoid all of it.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. (Laughter)
CHARLIE MUNGER: That’s the way Warren and I found our profession.
WARREN BUFFETT: Absolutely. You know, we —
CHARLIE MUNGER: We failed at everything else.
WARREN BUFFETT: We worked at everything till we found the ideal employers: ourselves. (Laughs) You know? And that was something we really admired.
CHARLIE MUNGER: I know: Warren said, “Work for somebody you admire.” (Laughter) The only one he knew was the one he was shaving.
WARREN BUFFETT: I think he was self-employed.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Because he and I were shaving.
WARREN BUFFETT: But it isn’t bad advice. It isn’t bad advice. I mean, if they’ve got an option. I mean, Charlie went into the service in whatever year it was, in the ’40s, and he didn’t really have a choice of who he was going to work for. And, as I remember, it didn’t really work out that well (Laughs) who you worked for, Charlie, did it?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well — if you stop to think about it, there are two things that neither one of us has ever succeeded at: One, we’ve never succeeded at anything that didn’t interest us, right?
WARREN BUFFETT: Right.
CHARLIE MUNGER: And we’ve never succeeded at anything that was really hard where we didn’t have much aptitude for it.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. And we’ve been doing whatever we pleased for 60 years.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Yeah, we did.
WARREN BUFFETT: And, you know, we have fun in our way, and —
CHARLIE MUNGER: I’m just amazed. You’d think, if you’re smart, you could do things that don’t interest you well. But you can’t.
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, I’ve certainly got a lot of examples in my own case. But we won’t get into them here.
21. Munger likes having big U.S. oil reserves
WARREN BUFFETT: And we will go to Becky.
BECKY QUICK: This question comes from Foster Taylor, in Tulsa, Oklahoma. He said he recently listened to the Berkshire Hathaway 2008 Annual Meeting, where you talked about global oil production.
At the time you talked about major ramifications if global oil production went below 85 million barrels in 25 years.
We are at the 14-year mark, and global oil production looks to be 79 million barrels. At the same time, we’re depleting our strategic oil reserves. Should the United States be doing something differently, and do you see consequences to these actions in the next ten years if we do not become more proactive?
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, Charlie’s the expert on oil.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, but — (Laughs)
WARREN BUFFETT: Only compared to me. (Laughter)
CHARLIE MUNGER: Samuel Johnson said, “It’s hard to determine the order of precedency between a louse and a flea.” And it’s hard to tell which of us is more incompetent in oil. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: We’re still competing. (Laughs)
CHARLIE MUNGER: I have a different view on this subject. I like having big reserves of oil. If I were running the benevolent despot of the United States, I would just leave most of the oil we have here, and I’d pay whatever the Arabs charge for their oil and I’d pay it cheerfully and conserve my own. I think it’s going to be very precious stuff over the next 200 years. And nobody else has my view, so it doesn’t bother me, I just think they’re all wrong.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. (Laughter) Well —
CHARLIE MUNGER: But at any rate, that is not the normal view.
WARREN BUFFETT: And we’ve been pretty flexible on our own view. I mean, actually, the Federal Government is serving up however many billion barrels of the stuff into the economy. And, you know, it wasn’t that long ago that, you know, the idea that anybody produced a barrel of oil was somehow something terrible. I mean, just try doing without 11 million barrels a day and see what happens tomorrow.
It is something that everybody has a feeling on, immediately. And, you know, this gets into a whole bunch of different tribes of sorts, and you offend an awful lot of people if you talk in any way about it. But, in the end I think, at the moment at least, most people feel that it’s nicer to have some oil in this country than not have it.
And we’re using a lot of it. And if we were to try and change over, in three years, or five years, nobody knows what would happen, but the odds that it would work well are extremely low, it seems to me.
Charlie, why don’t you say something more dramatic so you’ll be the one that offended the most people? (Laughter)
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, if you stop to think about it, the oil industry is being so vilified now, I can hardly think of a more useful industry, and I don’t know about wildcatters, but certainly the petroleum engineers I know, and the people who design our oil refineries, and pipelines, are some of the finest and most reliable people I know.
And I see very little trouble (Applause) with the oil supply thing in the United States.
So I’m basically in love with Standard Oil. And I don’t have this feeling that it’s an evil, crazy place. I wish the rest of the world worked as well as our big oil companies.
22. Deciding whether to buy back Berkshire stock isn’t that hard
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, we better move on to station 11. (Laughs) I’m not sure whether station 11 is operative?
GLEN TONGUE: Well, we’re here. Greetings from the Overflow Room. My name is Glen Tongue, I’m a shareholder from New York. This is my 20th Berkshire Annual Meeting, and I’m delighted that we’re able to, once again, be here in person. You two have brought tremendous joy to all of us through the years, and, speaking personally, your wisdom has not only made me a better investor, but, more importantly, a better, happier person. It’s a privilege and honor to thank you. So, Warren and Charlie, thank you. (Applause)
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, that’s my kind of a question.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, that — that’s fine.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Let’s have more of those. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, or you can say it again. (Laughs)
CHARLIE MUNGER: Maybe you could sing it. (Laughter)
GLEN TONGUE: Maybe I should quit at this point.
WARREN BUFFETT: Glen go to it.
GLEN TONGUE: My question relates to share repurchases. Since you started buying back Berkshire shares, in size two years ago, the repurchases have ranged between $1 billion and $3 billion per month. By my estimate, it appears that the buyback rate is about $3 billion per month when Berkshire’s trading at a 20% or so discount to intrinsic value, $2 billion per month at about a 10% discount, and a billion per month at a zero to 10% value. Do I have that approximately right? And do any other factors influence the rate of share repurchases?
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, after you were so nice in your introduction, I have to say that (Laughs) you’re actually wrong in that. If somebody had offered us $50 billion worth of stock at a certain point in the last three or four, five months, we’d have taken it. You know, it’s that simple.
And, as I mentioned earlier, we haven’t bought any stock in April. It’s something that, when we can do it, and we know, at least we think the probabilities are very high, we certainly believe it in terms of our own evaluation and our own investment, if we think that we’re improving things for the remaining shareholder, we’ll buy it back. And if we don’t, we don’t buy it back.
And if we have the choice of buying businesses that we like, or buying back stock — the controlling factor’s how much money we have, we’d rather buy businesses. And so, you know, we don’t stay awake at night working out formulas, or anything of the sort. But we don’t ever do it if we think that we’re not doing something at the time.
If we had a lemonade stand, and Charlie and I and you owned it, and the lemonade stand was making us about a buck a week or something, and we divided it up. And then you said you wanted to get out. And if you said one number, and we’d have the funds in our little lemonade company, we’d buy you out. And if we didn’t like the price, we wouldn’t buy you out.
And that’s the same we feel. But we do feel an obligation to do things that we think are intelligent and in no way risk — absolutely no way present any risk, of financial problems under any circumstances, we can envision, except maybe something like nuclear war, you know, we will do it. But it never can be that big a factor.
Charlie, I think, spoke the other day, in connection with Henry Singleton. I think he bought back 89% of the company over time. And he’d sold stock like crazy, or issued it, much earlier when it was overpriced, and he bought it back underpriced. But the key to that, of course, if having people think you’re wrong in doing it, so he was able to buy a ton of it.
And there are some other companies that have bought a ton of it, and Berkshire isn’t going to get the chance to do that. Because we’ve got sensible shareholders is what it amounts to. If we had the same group of shareholders that own two-day puts, and they were our shareholders, we could buy back the whole company, you know, in a very short period of time.
But it’s such an easy concept to assess. I mean, the second stock I bought — I bought City Service Preferred, that was the first one. The second stock I bought was a company called “Texas Pacific Land Trust.” And that came out of the bankruptcy of the Texas and Pacific Railroad back in the 1880s, or something like that.
And they had three million-some acres, and they owned the minerals, and they owned the surface, and everything else. But it was terrible land in the 1880s. But they had some kind of a charter that said that they could use the proceeds from land sales, whatever it was they were going to buy in stock every year.
And, you know, I sat there, when I was 13 or 14, and I figured, “If I live to be a hundred, I would own the whole place.” Well, I haven’t lived to be 100 yet, and I wouldn’t have bought the whole place. So both calculations are, so far, imperfect. But it’s been a remarkable company, just plain remarkable. Because they would talk about grazing fees of $6,000 a year, or something like that, you know, maybe, when they had three million acres.
And then they kept finding oil, and more oil, and more oil. And they’ve changed the form, and all kinds of things, but they bought stock week after week after week. And I sat there and figured out how long it would take until I owned the whole company. And I obviously made some improper (Laughs) calculations because it wouldn’t have worked that way.
But it still was apparent to me that it would be a very good idea, if they had three million acres down there, that if they got all through with it, and they kept their mineral rights, and all kinds of things, which they were doing, you know, at a very cheap price it ought to work out well for anybody that sat around for a long time.
And it has worked out extremely well for anybody who sat around a long time. But nobody knew that they were going to find a lot of oil, and that eventually El Paso would grow out far enough so that the surface lands became worth some money, that were somewhat near El Paso. And you had to go a couple hundred more miles to find the next person, but (Laughs) that was another problem.
So, some of this stuff is so simple, you know? But, you know, if people want to get their Ph.D. or something, so they work out hundreds of pages, and have lots of Greek letters in it, and all that soft of thing, and either you’re buying out your partner at an attractive price, or you’re not buying him out at an attractive price.
And if you’ve got the money around to do it, and the price is attractive, and you don’t have some other opportunities, you know, why not do it? You’ve got to come out ahead by doing it.
And if you’ve got other things that are more intelligent, you don’t do it. And if it isn’t intelligent on an absolute basis, you also don’t do it.
Charlie, have you got anything to add to the — what were you doing in 1943? (Laughs) You were in the Service?
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, Warren, we’d be crazy if we didn’t rather enjoy having come a considerable distance from small beginnings.
And to do that in good company, it’s a favored life. We’ve been very fortunate.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah. And, tomorrow — (Applause)
— Monday — I can tell you, it’s almost certain that, if anybody offers us — well, there will be shares traded of Berkshire, and we won’t buy any.
But it’s also a pretty fair chance someday a lot of shares — we’ll add a few shares — not a lot.
Berkshire’s got the — our shareholders are too smart, that’s one of our problems (laughs) if we want to repurchase shares.
But we really don’t want to squeeze out anybody. But we also are here to do things that increase the value for the people who stick with us. I mean, it’s not very complicated, and there’ll be times when we’ll do it, and there’ll be times when we won’t.
There won’t be any formula, but there will be the principles that I’ve just expressed.
And my guess is that my successor, and their successor, will have a similar calculation, because we’re looking for people that are rational and devoted to Berkshire.
So, Glen, thanks for coming.
23. “Independent” board directors aren’t really independent
WARREN BUFFETT: And, Becky, you’re next.
BECKY QUICK: This question was sent in by Dave Shane (PH) from Brooklyn, New York. He’s responding to something he heard earlier today. He said: “In the future, will Greg be able to act with the same spontaneity that you mentioned earlier? And make immediate, multibillion-dollar decisions without board approval?”
WARREN BUFFETT: Well, my guess is that the board will respond as people do.
They’ll put some more restrictions, or they’ll have some more consultation on a lot of matters, or some matters, than they do with me. I mean, they won’t “need” to, but they’ll feel that they haven’t had the experience, they haven’t seen him as long, and a whole bunch of things.
And they’ll feel that the Delaware laws protects him better. And, incidentally, they don’t have directors and officers liability insurance. I mean, virtually every company on the New York Stock Exchange has it.
And we just don’t buy it. I mean, I’m on the board, and you’re a trustee for a whole bunch of people with trusts, you and me — I’m talking about the directors and me. You know, fine. But it’s very interesting: People go out on museum boards, you know, and they’re expected to contribute. People go on college boards, and they’re expected to contribute money.
And they say, “It’s a great honor to be on a university board,” or a museum board, or whatever, “It’s a great honor, and therefore you should raise money for us.” Well, frankly, I think our board’s more interesting than being on a university board, or, you know, a hospital board or something. I wouldn’t know what they were talking about anyway, on a museum board or an art board.
But people have found that they can make $300,000 a year, you know, which is enormously important to some people, and is meaningless to others. And, I mean, the chances are, if somehow, they’d arranged it so that directors didn’t get paid at all, there’d be plenty of people wanted to be directors, and that’d be a prestigious sort of thing, and all that. But, in effect it’s money that comes very easily. The whole idea of the “independent director,” frankly, is it just doesn’t really make any sense.
CHARLIE MUNGER: You don’t think a director is independent who needs $300,000 to be here?
WARREN BUFFETT: He needs the money, yeah. I mean —
CHARLIE MUNGER: He’s “independent” the way a slave is independent.
WARREN BUFFETT: I am going to read a few sentences which are absolutely the case, except I’m doctoring it. I don’t want anybody to be identified obviously with this. But these are word-for-word excerpts. And I’m not telling whether it’s a woman or a man, I’m going to use a male pronoun just because it’s easier.
But I picked out a few sentences from a letter I received many years ago. And this letter said: “I’m writing to you with a great deal of reluctance, and a sense of personal embarrassment. I’ve tried all of the conventional means of raising the money.” This person needed a couple million dollars, and I wouldn’t have known the person if I saw him on the street, you know, but he wrote this letter and said, “I need a couple million dollars.”
And then this is the item that I think you might find interesting, and I’ve kept the letter. “My income is composed 100% of my board fees.” Well, I just looked him up. At the time and he was a director of five prestigious companies, and had been directors of others, and was going to be a director of a whole bunch of things.
But he was desperate for money, and he says he’s “getting 100% of it from board fees.” And he was an independent director, classified as “an independent director” at every one of these companies. And it’s just astounding to me. You know, we’re going to have a shareholders meeting in just a couple of minutes, or we’re going to start it, and it’s just astounding to me that in 2006 we owned 9% of the Coca-Cola Company.
I mean, maybe they gave me a free Coke. But we owned 9% at Berkshire Hathaway, we obviously cared about the views of the Coca-Cola Company. And it just so happened in that era CalPERS and a few others had recommended that we be voted against for something or other.
And at one time there were two big institutional investors that voted because they didn’t think I was independent because Dairy Queen bought some Coca-Cola. Or, actually, the people that had our franchise bought some Coca-Cola. I mean, do they think I can’t add things in my head? If we’ve got billions and billions and billions of dollars, that I’m going to be compromised?
But it’s just nutty. And so, one year, my vote fell from 96%, maybe it was 98%, voter approval, to 84%. Because — I forget whether it was 2004 or 2006: Somewhere along the line they just decided that I wasn’t the right sort of person to be able to handle these responsibilities. (Laughs)
And, you know, the idea that it’s an important part of their income, I mean, what they want. They may want to do a lot of other good things, it doesn’t mean they’re terrible people. But if the difference is how you live, and in this case whether the person might go broke: How in the world you can call somebody like that “independent,” and then say that anybody who owns a lot of st — you know, and whether Walter Scott’s you know, “not independent,” it’s just ridiculous. But it’s the way the rules are, and we follow the rules.
CHARLIE MUNGER: Well, they don’t want them just “independent” now. They want one horse, one rabbit, one cow, one whatever. (Laughter)
WARREN BUFFETT: You know, I feel like Galileo —
CHARLIE MUNGER: Independence is not enough. You’ve got to have a very diverse kind of independence.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, yeah. And if they desperately need the money, in this case 100% of the income coming from it; and you’re on five of the most prestigious boards in the country; and classified as “independent” on each; and all you’re hoping is that your CEO gets called by another CEO and says, “Is this guy OK?” And you say, “Of course, he’s OK.” Which means, “Because he doesn’t cause trouble,” and so he gets on a sixth board. Anyway.
CHARLIE MUNGER: All I can say is it’s not our idea of an “independent director.”
WARREN BUFFETT: No. No. It’s all a little crazy.
Which brings us to the fact that we’re not going to have our annual meeting here in about 15 minutes. We’ll reconvene at 3:45 and then we’ll do the business of the meeting that is required. And you’re all welcome to stay, and it’s very — (Applause)
24. Formal business meeting begins
WARREN BUFFETT: We now come to the moment you’ve all been waiting for.
We will have the annual meeting.
Charlie doesn’t join me for this because once or twice in the past, he was caught on camera sleeping. So — (Laughter)
We’ve solved that one.
And we’re now going to have an annual meeting where I follow a script. And you may think that’s impossible, but I’ll do it. (Laughs)
So, the meeting will now come to order. I’m Warren Buffett, chairman of the board of directors of the company. I welcome you to this 2022 annual meeting of shareholders. Marc Hamburg is secretary of Berkshire Hathaway and he will make a written record of the proceedings.
Rebecca Amick has been appointed inspector of elections at this meeting and she will certify to the count of votes cast in the election for directors and the motions to be voted upon at this meeting. The named proxy holders for this meeting are Greg Abel and Marc Hamburg. Does the secretary have a report of the number of Berkshire shares outstanding entitled to vote and represented at the meeting?
MARC HAMBURG: Yes, I do. As indicated in the proxy statement that accompanied the notice of this meeting that was sent to all shareholders of record on March 2nd, 2022, the record date for this meeting, there were 614,692 shares of Class A Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding with each share entitled to one vote on motions considered at this meeting, and 1,287,633,719 shares of Class B Berkshire Hathaway common stock outstanding with each share entitled to one-ten-thousandth of one vote on motions considered at this meeting.
Of that number, 423,719 Class A shares and 759,159,354 Class B shares are represented at this meeting by proxies returned through Thursday evening, April 28th.
WARREN BUFFETT: OK. And I will interrupt this meeting for one second to announce that we’re still selling things next door and we’ve sold 15 boats.
So, with that brief commercial — and if anybody leaves, I will not be offended.
Thank you. The number represents a quorum, and we will therefore directly proceed with the meeting.
First order of business will be a reading of the minutes of the last meeting of shareholders.
I recognize Miss Sue Decker who will place a motion before the meeting.
SUE DECKER: I move that the reading of the minutes from the last meeting of shareholders be dispensed with and the minutes be approved.
WARREN BUFFETT: Do I hear a second?
FEMALE VOICE: I second the motion.
WARREN BUFFETT: The motion is carried.
25. Voting for board of directors
WARREN BUFFETT: The next item of business is to elect directors.
If a shareholder is present who did not send in a proxy or wishes to withdraw a proxy previously sent in, you may vote in person on the election of directors and other matters to be considered at this meeting. Please identify yourselves to one of the meeting officials in the aisle so that you can receive a ballot. I recognize Miss Sue Decker to place a motion before the meeting with respect to election of directors.
SUE DECKER: I move that Warren Buffett, Charles Munger, Gregory Abel, Howard Buffett, Susan Buffett, Stephen Burke, Kenneth Chenault, Christopher Davis, Susan Decker, David Gottesman, Charlotte Guyman, Agit Jain, Ronald Olson, Wallace Weitz and Meryl Witmer be elected as directors.
FEMALE VOICE: I second the motion.
WARREN BUFFETT: It has been moved and seconded. The 15 individuals named in Miss Decker’s motion be elected as directors. The nominations are ready to be acted upon. If there are any shareholders voting in person, they should now mark their ballot on the motion.
Miss Amick, when you are ready, you may give your report.
REBECCA AMICK: My report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast not less than 449,190 votes for each nominee. That number exceeds a majority of the number of the total votes of all Class A and Class B shares outstanding.
The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes will be given to the secretary to place with the minutes of this meeting.
WARREN BUFFETT: Thank you, Miss Amick. The 15 nominees have been elected as directors.
26. Shareholder proposals
WARREN BUFFETT: The next four items of business relate to four shareholder proposals that are each set forth in the proxy statement that can be accessed at BerkshireHathaway.com. The first proposal requests that the company adopt a policy and amend the bylaws to require the chair of the board of directors to be an independent member of the board. The directors recommended that the shareholders vote against the proposal.
I will now recognize Peter Flaherty, a representative of the National Legal and Policy Center, to present the proposal.
PETER FLAHERTY: Good afternoon. I am Peter Flaherty, chairman of the National Legal and Policy Center. I’m from Washington, D.C., but please don’t hold that against me.
Our proposal would separate the roles of chairman and CEO. Sorry, Charlie. But I would take it one step further and suggest that Berkshire remove itself from corporate America’s assault on American institutions and culture.
I’m proud to say I’m a capitalist. But it is obvious to me that capitalism is failing to deliver for the American people. Real wages have been falling for years. Wealth disparity has never been greater (BOOING) and right outside my hotel window here in Omaha is a homeless encampment, an all-too familiar sight in American cities.
We don’t have a free economy. We have bailout capitalism. When small businesses lose money, they go out of business. But when billionaires bet wrong, government steps in. Money printing by the Federal Reserve and irresponsible, debt-fueled spending by politicians, what they call fiscal stimulus, have artificially inflated asset values.
So, those with the most assets benefit the most. Wage earners get ruinous inflation. But even worse than the wealth gap is the values gap. The top 1% now seek to impose their corrupt morality upon the rest of us whether it’s in the form of critical race theory (BOOING), transgenderism and/or the myriad of other woke causes that permeate corporate advertising and messaging.
Why has corporate America embraced both the economic and cultural radicalism? It’s pretty simple. When you have so much money, your fortune is going to come into scrutiny. The best way to insulate yourself and keep anti-business off your back is to embrace their causes, even if in the process you undermine the system that produces your wealth.
That is what allowed Mr. Buffett to advocate for higher taxes, even though they will fall on the middle class. The Federal Reserve has offered free money to corporate America for over a decade now, creating a class of oligarchs and greatly enhancing corporate political power.
Executives now believe that they can tell elected governors and legislators what to do, as we’ve seen in Indiana, Georgia, Texas and Florida. Last year, Coca-Cola CEO James Quincey, a British citizen, sought to kill Georgia’s new voter integrity law by making inaccurate and inflammatory statements about it.
He also instituted diversity training whereby white employees were encouraged to try to be less white. Despite being Coke’s most celebrated shareholder, Warren Buffett is nothing about Quincey. In fact, Mr. Buffett jumped on the America is racist bandwagon by signing a statement by corporate leaders suggesting that Republicans seek to restrict ballot access based on race.
All this did not prevent Coke from sponsoring the Winter Olympics in China which has never had a free election and where minority communities are the victims of genocidal policies. And what about Apple? A large part of Apple’s supply chain is in China.
The company removes apps from the app store at the request of the Chinese government because they’re used by human rights activists. And of course, Apple is the world’s most successful, corporate tax minimizer, famous for routing profits through off-shore tax shelters.
Over at American Express, the company instituted an anti-racist initiative for employees to teach us that capitalism is fundamentally racist and requires workers to engage in an exercise to determine whether they are the oppressor or the oppressed.
Activism by woke CEOs may be reaching its limits. The people of Florida are fighting back against Disney’s Robert Chapek who not only embraces the view that gender is a form of oppression but that kindergartens must be forced to confront it. Mr. Buffett has praised the brand endurance of Disney’s characters and the trust parents place in its content to be safe and appropriate for children.
But now the company is adding warnings to Dumbo, Peter Pan and Aladdin about the stereotypes they allegedly portray. And poor Prince Charming has been excised for kissing Snow White, quote, unquote, “Without consent.” Warren Buffett has yet to address the crisis gripping corporate America, and I fear he never will.
Yes, Berkshire may be a holding company and Mr. Buffett may stay out of the way of managers. But what happens when these executives use their companies to wage a social revolution that most Americans don’t want? Is he not responsible? He can’t have it both ways.
In this country, wealth has been admired and even celebrated because our system allows anyone to become rich. But what happens when Americans suddenly find their history and future under attack by corporate America? The social compact that permits such affluence will be broken. Mr. Buffett, if you are the face of the capitalism, why don’t you do something to save it? Thank you.
WARREN BUFFETT: OK. (BOOING) Thank you, Mr. Flaherty.
If there are any shareholders voting in person, they now should mark their ballot on the motion. Miss Amick, when you’re ready, you may give your report.
REBECCA AMICK: My report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast 72,298 votes for the motion and 421,181 votes against the motion. As (Applause) the number of votes against the motion exceeds a majority of the number of votes of all Class A and Class B shares properly cast on the matter, the motion has failed. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.
WARREN BUFFETT: Thank you, Miss Amick. The proposal fails. (Applause)
The second proposal requests that the company publish an annual assessment addressing how the company manages physical and transitional climate-related risks and opportunities. Directors have recommended the shareholders vote against the proposal. I will now recognize Tim Youmans, a representative of Federated Hermes, to present the proposal.
TIM YOUMANS: I thank the chair, the board and fellow shareholders. I’m Tim Youmans, lead North America EOS at Federated Hermes, here today to talk about ballot item three, a proposal that is cosponsored by Brunel Pension Partnership, limited, represented by EOS, Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec, California Public Employees Retirement System, and state of New Jersey Common Pension Fund D, on behalf of their combined millions of ultimate beneficiaries.
EOS, Calpers and CDBQ cosponsored a similar proposal last year asking the company to commence climate-related risk reporting which the company has not started. The context for this year’s parent company, climate-reporting proposal is, however, different in three ways.
First, we’ve added New Jersey Common Pension Fund D; second, we stand before this annual meeting of shareholders backed by, in our estimate, the majority of non-insider votes cast at last year’s annual meeting. We provided the company tally showing that the majority of non-insider votes cast supported last year’s proposal, and Glass Lewis has also corroborated this result. The company disagrees but has not shared its reasoning.
Third, the parent company began engaging with the cosponsors this year. And the company recently published a supplement to the chair’s letter from Vice Chair Abel discussing climate change matters in the company’s energy and rail subsidiaries. Also, the parent company’s audit committee has amended its charter to now include climate risk oversight.
We welcome the company’s new engagement approach, Vice-Chair Abel’s supplement and the revised audit committee charter. However, these changes do not address in any meaningful way what last year’s non-insider, majority-supported shareholder proposal asked for and what this year’s ballot item three asked for, which is that the parent company should A) commence annual climate-related financial reporting for subsidiaries where material and for the parent company as a whole following the recommendations of the task force on climate-related financial disclosures; B) explain how the board oversees climate-related risks for the combined enterprise; and C) explore the feasibility of the parent company and its subsidiaries establishing science-based, greenhouse-gas reduction targets.
Here is why all shareholders, including the non-insider shareholders who supported last year’s shareholder proposal, should once again (this year) tell the board to change course and support parent company climate risk reporting. Vice Chair Abel’s supplement talks about emissions reductions.
We ask the parent company to report on climate-related financial risks, not just the emissions reductions, as these risks may be material. Abel’s letter also talks about emissions reductions in rail and energy, two of the four giants of Berkshire Hathaway as they are referred to in the chair’s annual letter.
What about climate risk in insurance? The company has 60 subsidiaries and more than a few large investment holdings. The company should disclose material climate-related financial risks beyond rail and energy in a composite, parent company picture.
We ask the company to allocate a small portion of its more than $100 billion in cash equivalents to climate risk reporting at the parent company level. Climate financial risk may be significant (even material) at the parent company. On page K-26 of the 2021 annual report the company states that climate-related risks could produce losses and significantly affect financial results.
The company audit, however, is silent on climate risk. We have asked the auditor, Deloitte, to explain this inconsistency. We ask the audit committee to explain why Deloitte has not disclosed how it considered climate-related risks in its review of financial statements when the company itself disclosed this is a significant risk.
Investors representing $68 trillion in assets make up the climate action 100-plus collaborative engagement on climate change. Berkshire Hathaway is the only major public company in the U.S. (the only one) to earn now for two years in a row a score of zero on the CA-100-plus net zero assessment of climate progress; the undisputed worst performer.
This stands in stark contrast to Berkshire Hathaway’s track record of usually strong, long-term, financial performance. In response to last year’s non-insider, majority shareholder vote, the company has made a start towards climate action.
Much more is needed. Vice Chair Abel is the named CEO’s successor. His annual meeting remarks, both in 2020 and last year, and his recent letter, show he has a solid grasp of climate risk. We ask Vice Chair Abel to commence climate risk reporting at the parent company level.
This would give the company a headstart in complying with the SEC’s new proposed climate disclosure rules that ask for more disclosure than we ask for in item three. We ask all shareholders, both non-insiders and insiders, including the chair, to cast their votes for item three in support of parent company climate risk disclosures starting before the 2023 annual meeting. Thank you.
WARREN BUFFETT: Thank you.
I do think it’s worth discussing just a little bit who the actual constituency is on public pension plans.
Generally speaking, we hear from various — and it’s not limited to California in the least. But, you know, they’re protecting the holders of the pensions and the retired people and all of that.
And therefore, they’re usually suggesting something that we may or may not agree with in terms of whether it’s actually in the economic interest. But they do and they honestly feel, incidentally, that they are representing the pension holders.
People are going to get these checks every month now. They’re getting them now. They may get them later. It’s a very understandable position. But of course, in essence, that’s not who they represent. The people that are promised the pensions, whether it’s in California or any other state in the Union, they’re going to get their checks.
It’s obvious. The United States, American people, people in California, are simply not going to stand for the fact that people don’t get their checks. So, one way or another, they’re going to get their checks. To the extent possible, the states will attempt to realize from the taxpayers of the state in the future enough money so they can pay the checks.
I mean, that’s why states have adopted pension plans and that sort of thing. And many of the states have found their taxes to go up. I mean, in effect, no state government — public opinion in the United States, they’re not going to allow people not to get their pension checks.
And the state does have the right to tax income and property and various things of people within their state and they’ll exercise the power or they’ll look to the federal government for grants. They’ll do anything but the one thing they aren’t going to do is stiff the pensioners.
So, you’re probably representing if you’re on a public pension — essentially are representing the future taxpayers of the state. Now, there’s one problem about future taxpayers. They can leave the state. And it gets awkward in certain states particularly when people start leaving the state because the revenue that goes with those people, from income taxes and sales tax and so on.
So, people have a fair amount of freedom of movement. They don’t feel the same way about U.S. taxes. Not very many people are going to move from one place to another. In the United States, they move. And it’s gradual. Sometimes it isn’t so gradual.
And of course, as the tax base goes down, the past pensions stay. So, they become kind of like an aging steel company or something of the sort that whatever it may be, where the pension plans may become insolvent but they’re going to keep paying the people just like we’re paying on — you know, we’ve adopted certain policies on multi-employer pension plans and so on in the company.
The United States is not going to stiff a bunch of people, particularly people that vote. The moral feeling is to do it. The people that the trustees should be worried about because they — of course is the future taxpayers. And if they really mess things up, those taxpayers become more and more likely to leave.
And it has a lot of effects. Interestingly enough, you know, one of the calculations that might go on in Berkshire’s mind if we’re going to build a plant someplace that’s going to sit there for 50 years is whether there are going to be any people around that are going to pay the tax, and we can’t move our plant.
So, all these invisible decisions go on all the time. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with representing the taxpayers of the future. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with sitting on a pension board. But I do think they ought to actually figure out who they really are representing.
And they’re representing future taxpayers. And in some cases, they’re creating some tremendous problems for future taxpayers because they’re like politicians. I mean, you know, they’ve got promises they’re going to fulfill but they’ve got to do it from revenue that comes in in the future.
And they can’t print money and people can leave their state. So, it’s an interesting set of problems. And I can’t resist mentioning in 1991, you’ve seen that Salomon tape, when Salomon essentially might or might not have gone down the drain and had a bankruptcy which, in my opinion, would’ve spread like wildfire.
And who knows what would’ve happened, just like in 2008 and ’09, you know, where Lehman fell and a few things? I mean, who knows what’s going to happen after something like that? So, Salomon was bigger relatively by far than Lehman was in 2008 and ’09.
And on a Sunday in August, the Treasury Department, the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Reserve all decided on a Sunday that something they did on Sunday morning really was a mistake and that they better change it on a Sunday or the whole economic system might go down the tubes.
And in this book which we have for sale out here, Trillion Dollar Triage, in the first early pages, it describes that period. I didn’t know some of the stuff that’s in the book, even, that was going on. But essentially, the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan was brought in one time, Gerry Corrigan was there, Nick Brady was Secretary of the Treasury, they decided with various degrees of conviction.
But they did decide (because they had to decide) by roughly 2:30 in the afternoon whether something they did at 10:00, which was kind of unprecedented, they were going to reverse themselves. Now, can you imagine trying to get institutions like the (Laughs) Federal Reserve and Treasury Department to reverse themselves?
But they did realize that they had probably done something that was going to cause a huge bankruptcy which could turn into a whirlwind in Wall Street. So, they reversed themselves and it tells the story in this Trillion Dollar Triage. And I knew some of what was going on. There was other parts I didn’t know what was going on.
Anyway, all of those institutions reversed themselves very reluctantly. Big institutions do not like to reverse themselves and particularly not four hours later when some guy from Omaha was telling them (Laughs) if they do this, we’re going to declare bankruptcy in Tokyo because we’re going to have a multi-billion-dollar run and we can’t pay it.
And directors who approve preferential payments when they know the place is going bust have all kinds of legal liability. And the whole thing is falling apart. And to their credit (enormous credit), you basically had the Fed and the SEC (mostly it was the Fed and the Treasury) and they said we just can’t have this happen. It could produce a national catastrophe.
And for some weeks, we had about $130 or $140 billion of funding. And $130 or $140 billion was a lot of money in those days. We were one of the three or four largest borrowers in the United States and we borrowed daily. And we borrowed against government bonds.
We had inventory there. But we only had $4 billion of equity and we had $130 billion. And there was a guy (a wonderful guy), John McFarland. He was the treasurer. He slept down at the downtown offices, or right near their offices, at Salomon for days and days and days and days because $1 billion a day was draining out.
There was a run on Salomon and it was a run that the Treasury and the Fed and the SEC did not want to have happen; reversed themselves and everything. And a few days into it, for whatever reason — but CalPERS was a big lender to us. And they decided they weren’t going to do business with Salomon anymore.
They were going to accelerate the run. And they announced one day that they kind of approved of everything that was going on, but they just didn’t want anything to do with us, even though we were giving them government bonds as security. And this was accentuating the problems for the Federal Reserve, the U.S. (Laughs) Treasury, the SEC. And no one knew how it was going to come out.
But they pulled and other people pulled and John McFarland stayed downtown and kept trying to raise $1 billion every day to pay all people in terms of the run that was occurring. And the Fed did not want this run to get out of hand but they couldn’t give us the money.
And the Treasury didn’t want the run to get out of hand but they couldn’t give us money, and so on. You know, it was a terrible problem. And CalPERS, like I say, they said, well, we don’t want anything to do with these guys so we won’t lend on government securities even though the loan is good.
And then, a little later, they sent word to me that if I would come out to California and talk to the people (the trustees) that then they would reconsider. So, that was what they wanted as part of their deal not to cause — keep participating in this run and take a different position.
And I never would’ve done this for anything except for the fact that it was Salomon. I mean, so, basically, I got on a plane and I flew to California and I met with the CalPERS people. And I wasn’t charging them anything. If I’d been charging them a lot of money, they would’ve paid attention.
And they still paid attention. They were very nice to me when I went out there. And I talked to them. And they were happy and they clapped and they paid attention to what I said because I wasn’t charging them a big fee or anything of the sort.
And I went back to New York and then they started doing business with us and announced that really they had decided Salomon was fit to do business. So, I have a little bias (Laughter) in terms of when they come around. And they present a proposal.
And they say that, in their proposal, and this was in our proxy statement — and we filed this with the SEC. We’re not going to say it if it isn’t true. And basically, they make a mistake, they and some other people. They make a mistake and say something about the shareholders voting.
It says in 2021 annual meeting, this is part of their supporting proposal, where a significant majority of non-inside shareholders supported a similar version of this resolution. Well, we say in our response, the proponents’ assertion that at the 2021 annual meeting, a significant majority of non-insider shareholders supported a similar resolution is incorrect.
In fact, a significant majority of said shareholders did not support the proposal. That’s either true or false. And you know, I have the last report submitted by that same firm that handles our material at Broadmoor. What is it? Broadridge.
And it reports the number of shareholders and it’s the last day before the voting or something like that. And it’s got the number of shareholders that support us and are against us. And it’s four to one in our favor, something like that.
And it just doesn’t make any difference to them. I mean, it’s fascinating to me that — (Applause) and, you know, I would be willing to wager somebody if we could find an impartial judge, that if you go to any group you want to pick that’s — take the CEOs of the five leading utility companies in the United States, CEOs of the ten leading, and ask them, you know, whether Berkshire Hathaway energy has been a leader in the field of renewables and so on and they’d all say yes.
But essentially, you’ve got a group of people that write us letters and say, “We want you to do things our way. And you’ve got 3 million other shareholders but forget about them, and spend some money on this, and have a meeting with us. And here’s our way of measuring the debt.”
And admittedly, we’ve got all kinds of information up about what we’ve done. And they can come out to Iowa and look around, and it is the renewables capital of the world practically. And we’re the ones that have done it. And that isn’t what they want. (Applause)
So, I’m for shareholder democracy and all that sort of thing, but the answer is that the resolution, that they pay lots of money to somebody that probably works in these groups. And they’ve got their way of doing it. I get letters from institutions in Europe.
And they say, “Well, you know, you may have 40 pages or a history going back to 2006 of explaining what you’re doing, but here’s the way we want you to do it.” You know, and how much energy is Garanimals, which we own? And it’s just, you have to think as a person sitting here in Omaha, you know, these are the rules. You get on the proxy statement under circumstances.
Most companies they don’t want a lot of resolutions, so it’s just easier for them to, you know, set up a department and, you know, pay a bunch of people to pay attention to them just like Warren did when he flew across the whole country.
Because it wasn’t money. I just was worried about a company surviving that the people in Washington, the supervisor were worried about it surviving. And if I flew across country and paid them sufficient respect, I mean, it’s kind of like The Godfather or something, you know.
I just bow down, and then flew back. So, I have a certain reservation. Shareholder proposals should have some meaning. I mean, it’s the kind of thing I argued for when I was younger. But, you know, basically it’s become, in my opinion, there are certain items that you can put on them now and certain that you can’t.
And practically every executive in the country, now as chief executive wants to have a virtual meeting. The last thing he wants to do is have his shareholders and people stand up and propose things. And we’ll just keep talking about it. The way we see it is, and in the end, we will have a report that is to the vote this time.
And I can assure you, we’re not stuffing the ballot box. We’re not doing anything. I mean, voter fraud, you know, it’s not like Chicago in the old days where you waited for the cemetery vote to come in and that sort of thing. We don’t count the votes, you know.
We don’t say where they come from. We don’t know where they come from. But we can tell when two or three institutions have got huge amounts of shares, but they’re one owner. And they vote a certain way, and then they feel pure. And what they care about is whether we check their boxes and the people that work for them.
Certain number of people are getting employed by them, and their hearts are pure. But ours aren’t impure. And with that, I won’t do this again. But it’s a really interesting development in terms of getting more rules-based type of situation where basically almost every company figures out how to negotiate with the people.
And they all have a good many of the CEOs. I mean, they just figure it’s something that they endure. They set up a department to answer the questions and meet with the people and show them the proper respect, and so on. And, you know, it’s being done to carry through on something which I think the substance of is pretty silly.
If I thought Berkshire Hathaway Energy was behaving in a way that was bad for society, worse than other utility companies. But no company — and the reason of course is that we don’t take dividends out. So, we pump tens of billions of dollars into the business.
In fact, every utility pays out the dividends. And it’s not the fault of the utility management. That’s just a policy that’s been the case in the utility industry. But they don’t really have much cash left over. And we have plenty of cash, and we’ll put in more cash.
And we’re willing to build, you know, whatever amount, transmission lines and all kinds of things that would be helpful to the country. And we’re doing a fair amount, but we could do a whole lot more. And we’re better positioned to do it really than any utility company in the country.
And I think if you talk to other utility executives, I don’t advise you to go and put them on the spot or anything, but they would agree. But they also know that their life is easier if they just have somebody to take care of people that want to be catered to basically.
And I catered to them in the time of Salomon in 1991, because 8,000 people were working there. And John McFarland was trying to raise a billion dollars a day. And the Treasury and the Fed, SEC wanted us to stay alive. And, in fact, that caused me to go and pay my respects to the Godfather and I came back. But I do think a little background is kind of interesting on this. And with that, we’ll ask Ms. Amick, can you give your report? (Applause)
REBECCA AMICK: My report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening case 127,214 votes for the motion and 370,415 votes against the motion. As the number of votes against the motion exceeds a majority of the number of votes of all Class A and Class B shares properly cast on the matter, the motion has failed. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.
WARREN BUFFETT: Yeah, and I will just add that (Applause) I got a report a day or two ago, the last report they sent from this firm. And it’s four to one or five to one. I’d be glad to share it with anybody. But in terms of number of shareholders based on what these people in New Jersey tell me the vote was, we’re against it.
And, you know, if they would reintroduce the proposal next year, I just hope they leave that line out. Because I would just suggest that somebody read what the proposal is or what the facts are before they announce their proposals and all that sort of thing.
OK, well, the third proposal requests that the company issue a report addressing if and how it intends to measure and disclose and reduce GHG emissions associated with underwriting, insuring and investing activities. The directors will recommend that the shareholders vote against the proposal. I will now recognize Jaylen Spann, representative of Whistle Stop Capital to present the proposal.
JAYLEN SPANN: Chairman, Mr. Buffett, and board members, good afternoon. My name is Jaylen Spann. I want to first thank you for the opportunity to present proposal number four on behalf of shareholder representative, As You Sow. This proposal asks Berkshire to measure, disclose, and begin reducing the greenhouse gas emissions supported by its insuring, underwriting, and investment activities.
In its most simple terms, the proposal asks Berkshire to take responsibility for its contribution to climate change. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has acknowledged that climate change can impair the productive capacity of the national economy.
The litany of national and global events associated with climate change, the fires in California and Colorado, the floods across the Midwest, the growing strength of hurricanes, the deep freeze in Texas to name just a few, demonstrate the growing risks and costs of climate change.
2021 was the second most costly year on record for the world’s insurers, with insured losses totaling $120 billion from natural catastrophes. Significantly, these losses can no longer be categorized as simply a bad year. As noted by Munich Re, economic losses caused by natural catastrophes are trending upward.
The insurance industry faces year on year growth in insured losses related to climate change. Berkshire is not only exposed to climate-related risks but is actively amplifying these risks through its continued investment in and underwriting of high-carbon activities.
Berkshire is one of the largest providers of coverage to the oil and gas industry, surpassing peers such as Chubb and Liberty Mutual. Its shareholdings in whole alone amounts to $5.1 billion, once again far surpassing its American peers.
A financial institution’s investment and underwriting activities are by far the greatest source of its total carbon footprint, highlighting the need for Berkshire to measure, disclose, and begin taking responsibility for the emissions it enables.
The global financial sector is rising to the challenge of meeting the Paris Agreement’s goal to maintain global temperature rise at 1.5° Celsius. The Net Zero Insurance Alliance has grown to 22 members, seven of which are in the top 30 largest global insurers by market cap.
All members have committed to reach net zero emissions from their insurance and reinsurance underwriting portfolios by 2050. AIG and the Hartford have also recently committed to reach net zero emissions from their underwriting and investment portfolios by 2050 or sooner.
Berkshire is lagging both its American and its European peers, a position that increases climate risk globally and to its own portfolios. The insurance industry and Berkshire specifically has a key role to play in the ongoing, low-carbon transition.
And we believe Berkshire has the ability to become a climate leader on this critical issue. And the first steps are to quantify the emissions associated with its underwriting and investing activities, disclose those emissions, and begin developing plans to reduce those emissions in alignment with the Paris goal.
To ensure global success in protecting this planet and its inhabitants, every business must take responsibility for its own contribution to climate change. And we look forward to working with Berkshire to address this vital issue. Thank you.
WARREN BUFFETT: Thank you, Ms. Spann. (Applause) The motion’s not ready to be acted upon. If there are any shareholders voting in person, they should now — how about a little light up here? They should now mark their ballot on the motion. Ms. Amick, when you are ready, you may give your report.
REBECCA AMICK: My report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast 127,065 votes for the motion, and 370,630 votes against the motion. As the number of votes against the motion exceeds a majority of the number of the votes of all Class A and Class B shares properly cast on the matter, the motion has failed. The certification required by the Delaware law (Applause) of the precise count of the votes given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.
WARREN BUFFETT: Thank you, Ms. Amick. Proposal fails. The fourth proposal requests the company report to shareholders on the outcome of its diversity, equity and inclusion efforts. Directors are recommending that the shareholders vote against the proposal. We will now recognize Jaylen Spann, representative of Whistle Stop to present the proposal.
JAYLEN SPANN: Hello. My name is Jaylen Spann. I’m speaking on behalf of the nonprofit advocacy organization As You Sow, and Whistle Stop Capital. I formally move proposal number five, asking for Berkshire Hathaway to report on the outcomes of their diversity, equity and inclusion efforts by publishing quantitative data on their workforce composition and recruitment, retention, and promotion rates of employees by gender, race and ethnicity.
Warren Buffett once mentioned that he had grown up with two sisters who, to quote Mr. Buffett, “are absolutely smart as I am and better personalities.” He also bravely admitted that he only placed women on his board after his wife suggested it in 2003, 40 years after he started his company.
It’s one thing to know that people of all genders, races and ethnicities can contribute to Berkshire Hathaway. It is another thing entirely to intentionally and proactively create the space, opportunity, and training needed within a company for those people to be able to contribute without facing harassment and discrimination.
In the absence of data, we must instead assume that Berkshire Hathaway Companies are no better nor any worse than any company in America. The statistics for American companies are unacceptable, particularly when we consider the strong link found by the Wall Street Journal, McKinsey, Credit Suisse, and others between diversity, equity and inclusion programs, and corporate outperformance.
Forty-two percent of Americans have witnessed or experienced racism at work. Sixty-four percent of Black employees say that discrimination is an issue in their own workplace. Many people of color are barred from entering the workplace at all.
A meta-study reviewing data from 1989 to 2017 found that on average whites received 24% more call-backs than Blacks, and 36% more call-backs than Latinos. If we take a look at Berkshire’s executive team, we can see that headquarters should be proud of the gender and racial diversity present in its leadership team.
The culture that exists at Berkshire Hathaway headquarters appears to be one that recruits, hires, promotes, and retains diverse employees. Mr. Buffett stresses the importance of culture and the value that it has on the long-term success of a company.
He said that “Culture more than rule books determines how an organization behaves.” Investors are looking for assurances that this culture is successfully implemented within the famously decentralized Berkshire Hathaway Companies as well.
In order to allow their investors to understand their workplace diversity, 87 of the S&P 100 companies have released or have committed to releasing their EEO-1 form, which is a standardized, government-mandated accounting of gender, race, and ethnicity breakdown by employment levels.
By contrast, of the more than 60 companies Berkshire owns, only one has publicly released this form. One company. This is not the leadership that Mr. Buffett is known for. The company’s inclusion data on the hiring, retention, and promotion rates of diverse employees must also be shared for investors to have a full understanding of the actual experience of not only Berkshire’s employees, but of its portfolio companies’ employees as well.
The board has released insufficient information to assure investors that it is attentive to diversity, equity and inclusion at Berkshire Hathaway Companies. We encourage transparency even in the face of imperfection in order to show that the company’s leaders are truly committed to change and to attracting, retaining, and promoting the best possible employees. Thank you. (Applause)
WARREN BUFFETT: I certainly agree with you that my sisters were better looking, smarter, had better personalities. And in 1930, they had a father, mother and teachers who loved them like they loved me. And if I’d been born female, Black, in various other countries, I would not have had remotely the life I’ve enjoyed.
But if what the people at the top believe is important in terms of how our subsidiaries behave, certainly there’s everybody that runs any one of our subsidiaries knows how I feel. They also know that they’re in charge of their own business.
And that we think we’ve got great leaders in virtually every company we have. Every now and then, we find we’ve made a mistake obviously. But if the idea that we should replace any of the people that run the businesses, I just don’t think that’s the way to operate.
And I will tell you, just so that the question doesn’t come up later, in terms of our shareholders, by again a four or five to one vote, voters of the owners of the Berkshire Company, forgetting about A or B shares, you know, basically the big funds that are worried about what their perception is but also may well believe it. Who knows what people’s motivations are.
Somebody said that the word motivation should never be used in the singular, because we really don’t know. But the one thing is that it’s very hard to find people that are running big institutions that, you know, are acting against their self-interest.
Now it doesn’t mean they’re acting for their self-interest necessarily. They’re acting for a lot of reasons. But it’s something that if you could change that in people, it would do a lot more for Americans in the future. But you basically can’t change that.
I mean, it’s a situation of how people behave in protecting essentially their own interests. And their own interests 40 or 50 years ago was essentially to regard corporate America as a boys’ club. And that’s not acceptable anymore, so they changed.
But they haven’t changed as much by a substantial margin in relation to Blacks. And that’s where we are as a society. But overwhelmingly, our shareholders don’t agree with you, even though you gave them a chance to express their view on it. So Ms. Amick, when you’re ready, you may give your report.
REBECCA AMICK: My report is ready. The ballot of the proxy holders in response to proxies that were received through last Thursday evening cast 123,614 votes for the motion and 373,925 votes against the motion. As the number of votes against the motion exceeds a majority of the number of votes of all Class A and Class B shares properly cast on the matter, the motion has failed. The certification required by Delaware law of the precise count of the votes given to the secretary to be placed with the minutes of this meeting.
WARREN BUFFETT: Thank you, Ms. Amick. Proposal failed. (Applause)
FEMALE VOICE: I move that this meeting be adjourned.
FEMALE VOICE: I second the motion to adjourn.
上午场 - 2022年年会
1. 股东们年纪都真的很大了,能亲眼见到他们真好
沃伦·巴菲特:(掌声)谢谢大家。
我没听到指数基金那边有什么动静。他们在哪儿呢?(笑)
能回到现场做这件事,感觉真的很好。已经三年了。看到真正的股东、所有者、合伙人,感觉好太多了。(掌声)
我们——查理和我现在加起来——(听不清)四舍五入去掉零头——我们俩加起来190岁了。(笑)
我真的认为,如果你是一家公司的所有者,而这家公司是由两个分别98岁和91岁的人在经营,你有权亲眼见见他们,我是说真的。(笑)
这真的不算过分的要求。我是说,比如说,如果我们哪个地方有个98岁的经理人,我可能会想时不时派人去看看他是不是在剪纸娃娃(笑)之类的。
所以,我们做的事大概比剪纸娃娃还要傻得多,但我们做得很开心。
而且你们来看我们的时候,我们真的很开心。
其实,如果往前追溯几年——我们确实有过几位患痴呆症的经理人。可能还有更多,但我是说,至少有那么几个是确知的。(笑)
其中有一位是查理和我都非常喜爱的人。
他为我们经营着一家企业。查理——那是在加利福尼亚——查理偶尔会去看看他,我没有去看他。但一切似乎都好好的。后来我们才发现,他其实已经患痴呆症相当长一段时间了。他真的是我们俩共同的一位好朋友。
但那家企业经营得很好,所以这其实就成了我们(笑)挑选新企业的标准。
我们尽量找那种患阿尔茨海默症的人也能经营好的生意,说真的。(笑)
而且这类生意也没有那么多竞争对手。(笑)那个坐在那儿剪纸娃娃的人——你懂的,那就是我们要的人。(笑)
2. 介绍格雷格·阿贝尔和阿吉特·贾因
沃伦·巴菲特:我想介绍两位真正在伯克希尔工作的人。
查理左边这位是格雷格·阿贝尔,他负责除——之外的所有业务运营——(掌声)——对。
他旁边这位——我曾经不太成功地经营了大约15年的保险业务。后来幸运的是,最左边这位有一天走了进来——我以前写过这件事——他是在一个星期六进来的。当时我正在拆信,他说他很愿意来经营我们的保险业务。
我说:“你经营过保险业务吗?”他说:“没有。”正如我提过的,我对他说:“嗯,你知道,我也从没经营过,我干得也不怎么样,所以(笑)你就试试看吧。”
结果,你知道的,他改变了伯克希尔·哈撒韦。阿吉特·贾因今天也和我们在一起。(掌声)
3. 今天的日程安排
沃伦·巴菲特:我们今天的安排是——我得时不时提醒自己,这里的人当然是看过那部电影之类的,但别忘了,我们正在网络直播这场会议。
所以,我可能会提到电影里的一些内容,让外面成千上万(笑)的人摸不着头脑,但你们在场的人会懂的,所以——(笑)
我们打算先聊一会儿上个季度发生的事情,再提一些你们可能感兴趣的其他事情。
等这部分结束后,我们就开始回答问题。我们会一直回答问题到中午,然后休息一个小时——对于在其他时区收看的朋友,这里说的是中西部时间——我们会一直进行到中午,然后休息一个小时。
然后查理和我会回来,继续回答问题,一直到3点30分。之后我们会在3点45分召开股东大会——我们会先休息15分钟——然后开股东大会。开完之后,大家就各自散去了。
4. 喜诗糖果带来了11吨糖果售卖
沃伦·巴菲特:顺便说一句,我确实想汇报一下,你们已经在隔壁那个区域尽了自己的一份力——昨天从中午到下午5点,一共5个小时,我们迎来了1.2万名股东,把我们能想到能卖的所有东西都买了个遍。(笑)
我们带来了11吨喜诗糖果。如果卖不完,剩下的就归查理和我了,所以——(笑)
但你们确实尽力了。喜诗的销量——他们昨天创下了周五下午会议的销售纪录。这(欢呼)挺鼓舞人心的。(掌声)对。
顺便说一句,我这里有一盒喜诗糖果,挺——挺有意思的。
在这个盒盖上,希望大家能看到,有一位1854年出生的女士的照片。而在今天,按商业产品之类的标准来说,她的照片大概比美国几乎任何一位女性都要更常被人看到。
所以,我们在200多家门店里挂着她的照片,每一盒糖果上也都有。她就是玛丽·希(Mary See),生于1854年。
很多人以为这是我扮成女装,但那不是真的。(笑)我是说——
确实有点像,但(笑)那真不是我。
这些谣言都是我们的竞争对手编出来的。别理他们。(笑)
5. 我们喜欢让每个人在同一时间获得财务信息
沃伦·巴菲特:好了——这就是我们今天的日程安排。
我们接下来要做的是——我们希望给所有——我们希望给股东——所有者——合伙人——我们希望让每个人在同一时间获得相同的信息,而且最好是在股市休市的时候发布。在我们看来,这样才能让大家站在同一个起跑线上。
很有意思的一点是——我们并不知道我们究竟有多少股东。随着时间推移,关于登记持有人、领取股票凭证之类的规则一直在变。
所以我们没法像五六十年前那样,掌握一份实实在在的股东名单了。但我们被告知——被负责邮寄我们资料的那家公司告知——那是一家总部在新泽西州(我记得)的公司——我想想——叫Broadridge——他们几乎为美国相当大比例的公司都做这项业务。
所以,他们实际上是替我们邮寄这些资料的。他们向我们收取350万个账户的费用。我就姑且相信他们说的数字了。我是说,他们跟我们收的账户数越多——因为我们是按账户付费的——所以,说实话,有时候我真想自己去数一数——但那(笑)确实是很多信任我们的人。
而且他们——在我看来是理所应当地——绝大多数人都认为自己是我们的合伙人。
他们中有些人会喜欢阅读我们提供给他们的财务信息——也就是我们给你们的信息。
但大多数——很多人只是说,你知道的,“我们把这笔钱存起来了。我们相信你和查理。”而这种信任是一种巨大的激励。
“而且,你知道,好好管理它就行,我不打算学会计,也不打算去读那些报表之类的东西。”
但我们确实相信,对于那些确实会用到我们发布的信息的人来说,他们都应该同时拿到这些信息。
我们有少数几家机构,虽然我每年在信的第三段都会提到,我们希望所有人得到相同的信息,我们并不认为任何人有资格获得特殊会面——我们不可能为三百万个合伙人分别举行特别会议——但我们喜欢这样一个事实:每个人都得到相同的待遇,每个人都得到相同的信息。
今天上午,我们在网上公布了本季度的10-Q报告。我想就此谈几点评论,再谈一些其他内容,然后我们就开始提问环节。
进入提问环节时,我们会在两类问题之间交替进行:一类是股东邮寄来的问题,由CNBC的贝姬·奎克以及帮助她的人筛选整理,挑出他们认为最有意思的股东提问;这些问题不是来自CNBC本身,而是来自股东,也就是所有者。
另一类是现场提问。我们会在这两类之间交替进行。我们事先不知道会被问到什么问题。我们喜欢被问题出其不意,我想说,几乎所有问题都是这样。(笑)
我们会一直这样继续下去,就像我说的,中间休息一次午餐,一直到3点30分,然后我们会召开股东大会,所以——
6. 我们对亏掉你们的钱有一种“极度的厌恶”
沃伦·巴菲特:我想先放出第一张幻灯片,也就是第一季度的数据。就是这个。这是我们今天上午发布的内容。就本季度而言,其实没有什么大的意外。
我是说,总会有一些公司经营得非常好,也总会有一些公司出于这样那样的原因表现不佳。
最终,如你们所见,我们更倾向于使用一个叫做“营业利润”的指标。它是在扣除折旧、利息和税项之后的数字,这和其他公司喜欢告诉你除了真实盈利之外的任何东西不一样。
但我们确实会把资本利得单独列出来。就像我说过的,从长远来看,在接下来的20年里,我预计我们净额上会有更多的资本利得而不是相反。但,你知道,谁说得准呢?我希望——你知道,20年后我会向你们汇报这件事是否(笑声)真的发生了。
但如你们所见,我们在第一季度赚了大约70亿美元。而且这是实实在在的70亿。我是说,基本上季度结束时我们手头就有这笔现金收入。这并不是每个季度都完全如此,但我们讨论的确实是70亿美元的真金白银。
而这里的人在短片里看到的那些经理人,正是他们在为你们的钱努力工作,去实现查理和我从未想过——从未真正计划过会发生——的事情,它就这样,好像一步一步地自然而然发生了。
很明显,过去两年,尤其是第一季度,我们各项业务中发生了各种各样不寻常的事情。
我是说,两年前我们开股东大会的时候,也就是2020年5月初前后——我们当时不知道疫情会怎样发展,不知道经济会怎样,而且所有那些自认为知道的人后来都遇到了各种各样的意外。
但我们如今身处2022年,就像我说的,伯克希尔实现了70亿美元的营业利润。我们拥有非常非常多的公司。我们有36万名员工,他们拿着你们的储蓄,每天出门工作。
他们有工作。我们提供产品。你们出了钱,也理应——你们承担了风险,我们对事情的发展感觉非常好。而且我们希望能一直保持这种好的感觉。
我们对——我们对——让你们的资金遭受任何永久性损失怀有一种极度的厌恶。
你知道,如果我破产了,其实也没什么大不了的。我还是会照常做我在做的事情。我会想办法读读报纸、看看电视(笑),思考些问题,和查理聊聊天。
但永久性地亏掉别人的钱——那些信任我们的人的钱——这真的、真的——那就是一种我不想面对的未来。就像查理说的,“我只想知道我会死在哪里,这样我就永远不去那个地方。”——(笑声)——这话听起来相当有道理。(笑声)
查理·芒格:到目前为止一直管用。
沃伦·巴菲特:以防你们没听清,查理说到目前为止一直管用。(笑声)
如果我们亏掉了别人一大笔钱,我们在心理上会崩溃的。我们一开始就不会去接这笔钱。如果你打算亏掉别人的钱还会为此感觉糟透了,那一开始接下这笔钱就是疯了。
所以,关于伯克希尔,我能告诉你们的一件事是——虽然我无法预测我们的盈利会是多少,也无法预测股票会怎么走,我们——我们不知道。我们不知道经济会怎样,诸如此类的事情我们都不知道。
但我们确实知道,我们每天早上醒来,都希望在你们最终的投资安全性上,让情况变得更安全一些。
至于你们是否能赚到最多的钱,或者别的什么,我们并不苛求,但我们绝不希望你们因为选择成为我们的合伙人而遭遇糟糕的结果。这是一个你们可以依靠一生的承诺。
7. “我们在那三周里匆匆花掉了400亿美元”
沃伦·巴菲特:那我们来看看这里有什么。
在(幻灯片)Q-2里,给出了一些相关的迹象,因为我们——这其实挺有意思的。
我给我们的所有者写了一封信。信的日期是2月26日。那天是星期六——信是那天发布的。但实际上我一年到头都在脑子里写这封信。我是说——我们并没有——你知道,我们没有专人坐在那里帮我起草信件之类的。我是说,这是合伙人之间的一封信。
我一整年都在脑子里写这封信。我现在其实已经在写明年的信了。我并没有把字句写下来,但我心里有一些想要告诉合伙人们的话。
我姐姐是一名合伙人。我是在心里写给她的。我姐姐不久前去世了,但以前我实际上是在心里同时写给她们两个人的。
我想告诉她,你知道,我是怎么想的,关于这门生意,以及我认为她应该怎么看待它,诸如此类。
所以这封信的日期是2月26日。我在信里说,“没什么大事发生。”实际上,我们不妨跳到(幻灯片)Q-3,如果可以的话。
于是我在2月26日发出了一封信。但这封信并不是2月26日当天写的。我基本上是说,“这边没什么大事发生。”我说,“我们回购了一些股票。而且我们实在没看到什么值得出手的东西。”
如你们所见,在1月1日到2月18日之间,我们花了22亿美元,那是这个季度的一半时间,你知道,大概是其中的30个交易日左右。我们卖出——
所以基本上,我们什么都没做。然后在接下来大约三周的时间里,我们花了400亿美元。
顺便说一句,当我说我们花了400亿美元的时候,这一切都是办公室里的一个人干的。我是说,他一个人买所有的股票,他买政府债券。他没有助理什么的。但他花了410亿美元。(笑声)
是的。他真的是——我是说——他也替我做别的事情。他,你知道,把各种数字汇总起来。他就是做他该做的事。他很早以前在伯克希尔的其他岗位上工作过。
但他喜欢自己做的这份工作,而且做得非常出色,我们也没有为此专门设一个部门。
如你们所见,那之后(买入)就减少了。而且在第一季度,我们也花了大约31亿或32亿美元——差不多是这个数——用于回购股票。而且——
我们没有——你知道,我们在年报里谈到过这个。就像查理会说的那样,这让我们不至于闲得没事去泡酒吧。我是说,你知道,这至少给了我们点事情做。
而且——不过我们从不做我们认为无助于提升伯克希尔·哈撒韦价值的事。所以只有在回购股票是最有吸引力的选择时,我们才会回购。
我们在4月份根本没有回购过任何股票。所以,这就是——
那些想要在林间寻找各种蛛丝马迹的人——我们做的不是那种事。我们只是随行就市,一天一天地做。
我想这张表格恰好说明了这一点——我们在三周之内匆匆花掉了400亿美元。
而现在,我们又多少回到了那种比较慵懒的状态。但是——伯克希尔的一切都有可能改变。
8. 现金就像“氧气”
巴菲特:不过有一件事不会变——回到[幻灯片]Q-2,如果你们愿意的话——那就是我们手头永远会持有大量现金。
我说的现金,指的不是商业票据。
2008年、2009年——全国性的恐慌来临的时候——我们没有持有任何人的商业票据。我们没有货币市场基金。我们持有的是国库券。等一下我可能会再讲一讲,向大家解释原因。
我们——我们相信要手持现金。
历史上曾有过几次,将来也还会有更多次,如果你没有现金,你就没资格活到第二天继续玩下去了。我是说,这就是——
这就像氧气,你知道吗?它一直都在。但如果它消失几分钟,一切就结束了。所以——
我们的现金在3月31日减少了,因为正如大家所见,我们在那个季度的短暂时间内花掉了那一大笔钱,400亿美元。
我们已经承诺以超过110亿美元的价格收购Alleghany Corp。
但我们永远会持有大量现金。我们不会——我们不——
我们旗下有些公司有银行授信额度。我不知道他们为什么要那些银行授信额度。我们比银行更好,如果他们需要钱,我们会给他们(笑)。
但是,当地的银行家一直在拜访他们,银行家们需要找点事做。别人都有银行授信额度,所以这也无妨。但我们任何一家子公司都没有理由——(听不清)。伯克希尔比银行更强大,不过——(观众喊叫)
我没听清他说的是什么——我不知道那是不是一个银行家在喊叫,还是——(笑声)
我不——我其实不喜欢折磨人——我是说,我不喜欢折磨任何人。(笑)
不过——我完全支持银行,这个我们等一下再谈。
事实上,我们现在就可以稍微谈一谈。
钱是个挺有意思的东西。大家似乎都喜欢跟我聊这个话题。我是说,他们不会问我怎么跳舞之类的问题,但他们确实会问钱的事。
那么——如果我们放一下[幻灯片]20-1——这是一张20美元钞票的照片。上面写着“联邦储备券”。联邦储备券——在这个国家,我们在货币方面做过各种各样的尝试。令人惊讶的是,在一个只有两百来年历史的国家里,我们在银行等方面做过的不同实验数量之多。
但我们最终还是决定让美联储来发行货币。而且——
在左下角——顺便说一句,我想[前美国财政部长]罗西·里奥斯——在这张钞票上签名的人——我想她签署过的美国货币比历史上任何人都多。
所以,如果你见到罗西,一定要跟她套套近乎。我是说,这是一位(笑)发行过大量货币的女性。
“本券对一切公共和私人债务均为法定货币。”正是这句话使它成为了钱。
你可以走进我们的糖果店,如果你给我们足够多蒲式耳的小麦,我们大概会给你一盒糖果。
但钱是国税局唯一会向你索取的东西。你可以向他们提供各种东西——你可以给他们画作——你可以给他们——各种各样的东西——但在美国,只有这个才能清偿债务。
我想——你们会听到很多关于各种货币的说法——但在我看来,这是你们一生中,甚至是查理一生中,唯一会见到的货币。这就是——
这非常有意思,因为它只是说清偿——对一切公共和私人债务均为法定货币,没有别的东西这么说,不过,我想你们可能会有兴趣再看一张20美元钞票。
这一张是我自己的。上面——印着同一个人的头像——安德鲁·杰克逊——诸如此类。
那是一张20美元钞票。这张20美元钞票是在我有生之年发行的。而且它是由后来被伯克希尔收购的一家银行发行的。所以,你们会看到罗克福德的伊利诺伊国民银行信托公司。
我们在1969年收购了那家银行。如果你看那张钞票的下方,上面签的名字是尤金·阿贝格。我们正是从尤金·阿贝格手中买下这家银行的。
所以,我们手头还留着一些成版未裁的20美元钞票。我们可以像剪纸娃娃一样把它们裁下来。它们就是我们自己的钱。伊利诺伊国民银行曾经发行过货币。
但请记住,美国政府实际上说的是,这种东西变得可以兑换成美国的合法货币。这就是钱的本质。
结果可能是它的购买力会大幅缩水。它可能变得几乎跟废纸一样,在很多国家都发生过这种事。但是——当有人告诉你他们在发行新形式的货币时,请记住,在某些情况下,只有这个才能用来偿付账单。
曾经有那么几天——2008年的几天——而在2020年3月,我们也非常接近于重演那一幕——3月20日那天我们手头有充裕的资金——但我们当时离可能重演2008年、甚至更糟情形的境地并不遥远。
我们这里有一家书店:The Bookworm(书虫书店)。它在另一个房间里。他们有一本书叫《万亿美元大分诊》(Trillion Dollar Triage)。
对于那些真的喜欢读这类内容的人来说,这本书精彩地记录了美联储和财政部逐日发生的事情。
相信我,如果美联储没有采取他们当时采取的行动,至少在我看来,在极短的时间内,一切可能都会停摆。
几年前,我曾向[美联储主席]杰伊·鲍威尔当时的行动表示敬意。他必须迅速行动。我是说,在19世纪那种老日子里,一旦发生银行挤兑,人们排起长队,银行就会破产。
但那时候银行的人会尽可能慢地付钱,指望能有什么转机——比如一辆富国银行的卡车,或者一辆驿站马车运来一堆黄金什么的,然后你就可以好言相劝,让排队的人群散开。
在奥马哈,1931年8月,有四家州立银行——所谓的州立银行,那个年代确实有这种银行——倒闭了,而国民银行没有倒闭。但实际上截至那一天,它们全都已经破产了。没有一家银行能在一天之内偿清自己的全部负债。而当时唯一屹立不倒的就是美联储。
但我要告诉大家这一点。到那时候,伯克希尔·哈撒韦仍会在那里(笑)。
我们经营的前提是,如果事情当时稍微——非常——如果当时的[美国财政部长]汉克·保尔森、乔治·H·W·布什——不对,是乔治·W·布什,抱歉——还有[美联储前主席]本·伯南克和几个人没有采取行动,我们那时就到了那种局面:排队取款的队伍已经排起来了,只不过现在是通过电子转账——他们按几个按钮——一旦发生银行挤兑,一切都会瞬间结束。
如果你哪天买下一家银行,而镇上有两家银行,你可以雇几个群众演员,让他们跑到对方那家银行门口去排队。(笑)
但这么做只有一个问题。过一会儿,就会有人也跑到你这家银行门口排队,然后你们俩都完了。
但美联储不会完。美联储在美国可以做任何必要的事情。他们有各种各样的规定——可以这样做,也可以那样做,诸如此类。
1980年代的某个时候,[美联储前主席]保罗·沃尔克,一个非常正直的人,对我说过——我当时问他,“你们能做的事情的边界在哪里?”
他说——他是个很特别的人——个子高大——低头看着我说,“我们能做我们需要做的任何事情。”(笑)
这是真的。2008年和2009年就是这样,2020年也是这样。
你也希望下次再发生这种情况时也是如此。但你会希望——我们希望伯克希尔·哈撒韦到时候能在场,并且有能力在经济一旦停摆时继续运转。
而这种事总有可能发生。总有可能发生。
说了这么些让人高兴不起来的话——(笑)——我们来看看能不能——我想——或许我们现在就可以开始提问了,这可能是个好主意。
正如我之前说的,我们会在CNBC——贝姬·奎克提出的股东来信问题——和现场问题之间交替进行。这些问题可以提给我们台上四位中的任何一位。然后我们会交替进行,轮流照顾到会场的各个区域。
我们把礼堂分成了十个或十一个区域。
有一次,芒格和我拿到一张表格,上面写着“请按年龄列出公司高管”,我们就把我们所有人都填了进去(笑),作为对这个问题的回答。
不过我们这里会按区域来分。我们会一直交替进行。中午我们会休息吃午饭,下午1点重新开始。
9. 一封随意的电子邮件如何促成了阿勒格尼保险交易
沃伦·巴菲特:那我们开始吧,贝姬,你来带个头?
贝姬·奎克:谢谢,沃伦。第一个问题来自杰克·苏塞莱斯基(音)。他说,“在您2月26日写的年度信中,您提到您和芒格‘对市场没什么感到兴奋的东西’。然而大约在3月10日,阿勒格尼的交易就宣布了,随后是西方石油的公告,接着又披露了对惠普的投资。”
他的问题是,“从您写这封信到这些投资宣布之间,发生了什么变化,让这些标的在一个半月,或者说半个月的时间里,突然变得有意思起来了?”
沃伦·巴菲特:好,芒格,你想先说说你的看法吗?我再说我的。
查理·芒格:嗯,我的说法是,我们找到了一些比国库券更愿意持有的东西。(笑)
沃伦·巴菲特:一如既往,芒格已经给出了完整的答案,但我会说得更久,说得更少。(笑)
其实,那封信写于2月26日,那天是星期六,我们在信里坦白说找不到什么好标的。但在那前一天,2月25日,我收到了一封邮件。
其实是我的助理黛比·博萨内克收到的,因为我搞不太清楚那些设备该怎么操作。
所以是她拿进来的。其实她会把一堆邮件放在她桌子的边上,我时不时去收一收。
里面有一张便条,只有短短几行,是一位朋友写的,他多年前曾在伯克希尔工作过。那是在2月25日,也就是那件事的前一天。
他说他现在当上了阿勒格尼公司的首席执行官。我关注阿勒格尼公司已经60年了。我读过他们的年报。我有四个大文件抽屉,装满了他们的年报,因为这是一家很有意思的公司。而所有公司都让我感兴趣。
沃伦·巴菲特:所以我对阿勒格尼公司了解很多。(笑)
乔[·布兰登]说,“这是我作为CEO写的第一份年报,我就想把它寄给您看看。就像您为您的姐妹们写信一样,”他说,“我写这份报告的时候,就当是在写给您看的。”
我给乔回了一张便条。我说,“我打算这个周末读一读”,或者差不多是这个意思,这倒是真的。我确实很期待读它。
我还说,“对了,我3月7日会在纽约。我们能见个面吗?我想见见你。”
而且,我想我可能还说了一句,“我有个想法。”嗯,前一天我可还没有那个想法呢。(笑)
这封信恰好是在26号星期五寄来的。我当时就知道,到了某个价格我会买下阿勒格尼。而如果他没给我发那张便条,我根本不会想到要写信给他说,“我们3月7日见个面吧?”之类的话。
这件事根本就不会发生,全都是因为乔想把他刚写好的年报寄给我看。
所以这就是这笔井然有序的决策过程。我没有打电话给投资银行家说,“你能不能给我准备一份关于这个的报告?你有什么建议?”之类的话,什么都没有。
我知道我们会按我们出的价格买下阿勒格尼。如果阿勒格尼对此感兴趣,那很好。如果不感兴趣——
但除此之外,如果那封邮件没有发过来,我们是不会向阿勒格尼提出收购要约的。所以,得归功于乔写了那份年报这件事,如果他早一周寄来——你知道,我本来不会为此专程跑一趟纽约,但我想和他坐下来聊聊,告诉他伯克希尔会怎么做。
但这就解释了这110亿美元。(笑)
10. 人们对股票的赌博心理让大举买入西方石油股票成为可能
沃伦·巴菲特:后来发生的情况是,有几只股票对我们来说变得非常有意思。我们也花了很多钱。
发生的情况是——市场——这一点非常重要,要理解——过去这一两年,股市大概——它一直都是赌场和——当我谈到华尔街时,我指的是整个资本形成市场——还有交易市场,等等——这两者的结合体。
但这个市场一直非同寻常。
有时候它是相当以投资为导向的。不总是那样——它有时就是你在书里读到的那种情形——资本市场理应发挥的作用,也是你在学校里学到的那一套。但另一些时候,它几乎完全是个赌场,就是个赌博厅。
而过去这一两年,这种情况达到了一个极其夸张的程度——受到华尔街的推波助澜,因为钱都在股票的换手交易里。我是说,人们会说,如果你1965年左右买入伯克希尔并一直持有到现在,你做得多么了不起。但你的经纪人恐怕早就饿死了。
华尔街靠某种方式赚钱——不管用什么办法——就是从资本主义这张桌子上、从一个连几百年前谁都无法想象的不可思议的经济体上,捡掉下来的面包屑。
但除非人们真的去做点什么(笑),他们才能从中分一杯羹,否则他们是赚不到钱的。
而且他们赌博时赚的钱比人们投资时赚的钱多得多。要是有人一天交易 20 次,还为此兴奋不已,就跟拉老虎机的拉杆一样,那就好得多。你知道,那才是你想要的——你知道——
你可能不会说你想要那种人。也许你也喜欢另一种人,但真正赚钱的地方就在那儿。(笑)
市场被这种情况主导的程度,在某张幻灯片上有体现——我这儿有——是的。就是这张——[幻灯片]西方石油一号——请把西方石油一号放上来。
这张幻灯片显示了我们是怎么买到——嗯,我们大约在两周内,买下了西方石油公司 14% 的股份。
你会说,“怎么可能在两周内买下一家公司 14% 的股份?”而实际情况比这更极端,因为如果你看看西方石油的委托书,你会看到——那些常见的名字——贝莱德指数基金、道富指数基金,基本上还有先锋指数基金,然后还有一家公司,道奇考克斯。
如果你把这四家机构加起来——它们是不会买卖股票的——它们大概自己持有一小部分——它们大约合计持有这家公司 40% 的股份,就是这四家机构。
而在这段时间里它们什么都没做。所以这样一来,西方石油公司真正可供出售的股份就只剩 60% 了。
西方石油公司已经存在很多年了,是一家大公司,什么情况都经历过。
在这 60% 的流通股中,我进去跟马克·米拉德说——他坐在离我大约 30 英尺远的地方——我早上跟他说,你知道,“买 20%,整块整块地买,不管是多少。”
结果两周内,他从这 60% 里买到了 14%。这可不是投资。(笑声)
我是说,你不是从——我觉得这简直难以置信。
对伯克希尔你可做不到这一点。我是说,你没法——真的直接买下来。你可以说你想买这家公司 14% 的股份,但那会花你很长很长时间。
但是,压倒性地,美国的大公司——嗯,所有公司——都变成了赌桌上的筹码。人们买卖股票就像买卖为期三天或两天的期权一样。而人们拉动这台机器拉杆的次数越多,这台机器赚的钱就越多。我是说,这一点非常清楚。
而且压倒性地——我是说,那些人都去哪儿了?投资者们只是坐在那儿旁观,人数并不多,而赚钱的基本上是一帮在赌博的人。这才使得我们能在两周内,买下一家已经存在了几十年的企业 14% 的股份。
想象一下,试着在这个国家两周内买下 14% 的农场,14% 的公寓楼,或者 14% 的汽车经销商,或者随便什么东西,而且其中已经有 40% 被锁在别的地方了。
这——这超出了查理和我所见过的任何事情,而我们见过的事情可不少。
但我从没见过美国公众达到那种比例——那基本上就是个赌场。
而赚钱的人是那些为赌徒服务的人。(笑)
然后几周前,情况急剧下滑。如果你身处其中,是能感觉到的。
所以,当有人问一个很好的问题,“为什么你 2 月 20 日什么都没做,为什么你——比如说西方石油这单——是从 2 月 28 日才开始的?”——你知道,那是因为事情是这样发展的——
具体到西方石油这单,他们做过一次分析师说明会——我不知道那是季度说明会还是别的什么——但我是在一个周末读到的——那也正是年报出来的那个周末——我是在周末读的。
而[首席执行官]薇姬·霍拉布所说的一切都完全说得通。于是我认定这是个把伯克希尔资金投入进去的好地方。
然后在接下来的两周里我发现——这些内容白纸黑字都写在那儿——没什么神秘的——薇姬当时说的正是公司经历过什么、目前处于什么状况,以及他们打算怎么用这笔钱。
而她会做的是什么——她说她不知道明年的油价会是多少。没人知道。
但我们认定这么做是说得通的。两周之后,我们就持有了这家公司 14% 的股份。
而且我们当时已经持有优先股和认股权证了。关于这笔优先股的事情是这样的:我们花了 100 亿美元——买优先股和认股权证——我们为此付了 100 亿美元——到 2020 年 3 月季度末,我们对这 100 亿美元的估值——在我们的 10-Q 报告里——估值为 55 亿美元。所以我们出现了 45 亿美元的亏损。这本来会——你知道——
世界变了。石油有一天卖到了每桶负 37 美元(笑),而且——
现在看得很清楚,我觉得,我们希望——我们应该感到非常庆幸——我们能在美国本土每天生产 1,100 万桶石油左右,而不是一桶都产不出来,然后不得不到世界别的地方去找每天 1,100 万桶(笑),来维持美国工业机器的运转。
查理,关于这种疯狂的事情怎么会发生,你有什么看法吗?
芒格:嗯,这种情况发生了——我们现在几乎是陷入了一种投机狂潮。
我们有用算法互相对战交易的电脑。我们有对股票一无所知的人,被比他们懂得还少的股票经纪人指导着。(笑声)
巴菲特:不过他们对佣金倒是门儿清。
芒格:这真是一种令人难以置信的、疯狂的局面。
而且很奇怪的是,我们竟然搞出了这样一套体制,让这种相当于赌场活动的东西,跟大量合理的长期投资混在了一起。
我不认为任何一个明智的国家会想要这样的结果。
你为什么会希望自己国家的股票像赌场一样交易,交给那些跟在赌场里玩掷骰子和轮盘赌的人一样的人来炒?我觉得这太疯狂了。
但它就这么发生了。而且还挺体面的。反正对我来说不是,但对别人来说是。(笑声)
巴菲特:是啊——嗯——你看看——看看——这个国家——我是说,他们是在 1792 年,在一棵梧桐树下成立了纽约证券交易所。而那时候看起来一点也不像是美国的“尤里卡时刻”。
但你只要看看后来发生的事情,而这套体系被使用的时间还不到——你知道——嗯——你知道——我三辈子加起来那么长。
我是说,(笑)这简直不可思议。所以——
它成功了。也许它是在跟自己作对的情况下成功的——也许这个国家——但不管怎样,美国以一种难以置信的方式取得了成功。
没人能梦想到这一切。没人。
你知道,要是你当年说——你知道——三辈子之内——你知道——那——你知道——我们开会的这个地方——我是说——它 1867 年才成为一个州。
要是你早说了这话,人家早把你抓走了。但在 1789 年,如果你去问本·富兰克林,或者随便哪个刚从制宪会议走出来的人,“你觉得内布拉斯加的前景怎么样?”(笑)
这一切——简直令人难以置信,能取得这样的成就。而这些成就是——那些鼓励赌博的人——他们会想说,这一切之所以能实现,是因为我们拥有这些流动性市场,还有所有这些美妙的东西。
芒格可能会说是尽管如此。谁知道呢?(笑)不过——
答案是——嗯,没有答案。(笑)那——
我妻子——1952年4月19日我们结婚的时候——我们坐上我姑妈的车,开始一路向西。我们跑遍了整个西部——但有一天晚上我们到了拉斯维加斯。
那儿有三个人。埃迪——是埃迪·巴里克,还有山姆·齐格曼,以及杰基·高恩。这三个人都来自奥马哈。他们买下了火烈鸟酒店的一小部分股份。
巴格西·西格尔的生涯几年前就已经相当突然地结束了。(笑)
芒格:一颗子弹结束的。
巴菲特:不过毫无疑问那是一颗流弹。(笑)
事实上,可能有五六颗流弹。但不管怎样,巴格西是没了。
而有些人,包括那三个来自奥马哈的人,加入了那个团伙。山姆·齐格曼住的地方离我现在住的地方大约两个街区。他是斯坦·利普西的舅舅。斯坦·利普西——你们这些关注伯克希尔的人应该知道——后来经营《布法罗新闻报》,并在四五十年里都是我们的合伙人。
所以,各种事情都会相互交织。
但我走进这家赌场的时候——火烈鸟酒店——那地方有点像汽车旅馆——我21岁。我的新娘19岁。
我环顾四周,屋里全是这样的人——他们那时穿得更讲究——是个比现在或许更体面的群体——但他们中有些人是坐了几千英里的飞机来的——你知道——那时候的飞机没有现在快,按每英里成本算,经通胀调整后,可能也更贵。
他们大费周章跑来做一件在数学上根本不明智的事,而且他们心里清楚这不明智。
而且,我是说,他们恨不得掷骰子的速度再快一点,你知道——想弄清楚自己是不是手气正旺之类的。
我环顾那群人。每个人都知道自己在做一件数学上很蠢的事,他们大老远跑了几千英里来做这件事,而且他们——
于是我对我妻子说,我说,你知道吗,我要发财了。(笑)我是说,这怎么可能不成功呢?(笑)
如果人们愿意做这种事,你知道,这就是一个充满机会的国度。
嗯,现在也还是这样,你知道。
后来火烈鸟酒店发展得越来越大。在奥马哈,我们为杰基和他做的事情感到非常自豪。他也就是一两年前才去世的。
他后来算是成了维加斯的领袖人物——某种精神领袖。
而且,就像我说的,山姆·齐格曼的外甥后来救了我和芒格在蓝筹印花公司以及《布法罗新闻报》上的投资。(笑)
这是一个非常偶然形成的圈子。
但没有什么比金融界发生的事情更离奇的了。
另一方面,如果你往回追溯,也许有史以来关于市场运作、尤其是股市运作写得最精彩的一章,出自一本书,可能是经济学史上最有名的书之一——约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯写的《通论》。我记得是1936年。
我不记得是不是第12章——不管是哪一章——但不管怎样,他在1936年就描述了市场究竟是怎么回事。他用优美的文笔描述了一些东西,解释了为什么今年3月整个国家会以某种疯狂的方式炒作西方石油,使得我们能够买到那部分不属于另外四家机构、而这四家机构又不打算出售的股份中的四分之一。
但我们能买到其中的四分之一。我们原本还能买更多。我是说——你不禁会想,是不是真的有人在认真考虑投资这回事。如果你——
回到投资本身,我是说,投资就是现在拿出钱来,希望日后能拿回更多的钱。实际上是拿出现在的购买力,希望日后能换回更多的购买力。
但这就是原因所在——你知道,这也是教科书上教你的方式:你现在推迟消费,是为了以后能消费更多,从而照顾好你的家人——所有这些关于投资是如何发生的道理。
农场就是这样的情形。我是说,如果有人买了一块农场,通常他们最终会把它留给自己的孩子,或者是从父母那里继承来的。
而且,我是说,他们不会天天坐在那儿,你知道,一天报价15次,然后说,你知道,我想打个电话——我想在我邻居那块地上卖一份看跌期权,你知道。你也可以对我的地买一份看涨期权。然后我们再搞个什么叫勒式组合或宽跨式组合的东西,管它叫什么。而且,你知道,他们只是——
他们会想办法让这块农场增值。如果他们经营的是汽车经销店,也会做同样的事。如果他们拥有一栋公寓楼,也会做同样的事。他们想方设法改善它、吸引租户,诸如此类。而——
四十——应该是多少来着?——至少40万亿美元吧,你知道,整个美国企业的所有权,人们却把它当成赌桌上的筹码,或者当成拉老虎机的把手。
而且他们建立了这样一套系统,如果你想买一份三天期的看涨期权,你就可以买到。他们靠卖你看涨期权赚的钱,比你直接买股票赚得还多。所以,他们教你玩期权。(笑)
没有人到处兜售农场的看涨期权之类的东西。
但这就是为什么市场会做出疯狂的事情。而偶尔,伯克希尔就有机会做点什么。而这——
这并不是因为我们聪明。这是因为我们——我能说我们具备的唯一资质——有时候我连这个也怀疑——但我认为我们是神志清醒的。你知道,我是说,而这在这一行里恰恰是最主要的要求。
还有——芒格?
芒格:嗯,我不认为我们以前经历过任何跟现在完全一样的情形,无论是每天发生的交易量,还是纯粹的赌博活动的规模,以及那些煽动赌徒好宰他们一把的人。
这一点也不美好。我觉得这对资本主义来说算不上什么光彩的事,跟一群人在赌桌上掷骰子没什么两样。这对世界上其他人有什么好处呢?
巴菲特:不过,这倒是一种致富的好办法,只要你能想办法把自己插进这个系统里就行。
而且,你知道,工作在某种程度上是自我选择的。很多年前——我在华尔街有各种各样的朋友——不像我大约一个小时前开始这样说话之前那么多了。但我确实有很多朋友。我知道——
人们一生中会做很多决定。而事实是,总的来说,美国的这套体系运作得极其出色。它在很多方面可能非常不公平。
但它给我带来的商品和服务,跟我祖父当年所能享有的相比,已经产生了难以置信的差距。
我不想回到没有空调的时代,也不想回到人们一边往我嘴里灌威士忌一边给我钻牙之类的年代,或者诸如此类的事情。我是说,这个世界现在好太多了。而——
芒格:嗯,我觉得正是因为这种疯狂的赌博,我们反倒赚得更多。我认为总体上看,这几十年来这反而让我们的经营变得更容易了。
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我是说,我们一直依赖它。
芒格:是的。(笑)
巴菲特:我是说,我们依赖那些定价错误的企业,通过一种我们不用为它们的定价错误负责的机制。总的来说,我们很早以前就明白了一件事,那就是这不需要高智商,什么都不需要,只需要正确的态度。
我们晚些时候可能会多聊聊这个,但我想我们应该证明一下我们这儿是有观众听的,那就进入第一部分吧。(笑)
11. 我们愿意在美国以外收购企业,但更难找到合适的标的
欧拉·波勒姆:早上好。我叫欧拉·波勒姆(音)。我住在德国汉诺威。这是我第一次来奥马哈。
我的问题是关于伯克希尔在美国以外整体收购公司。有过几家,Iscar,可能是第一家。还有德国的路易斯。
我的问题是,你们只有在有兴趣的时候才会回复他们的电话吗?还是说,如果他们想出售公司,你们会主动去接触他们?
巴菲特:我会——我们实际上跑过几趟。我想查理可能和我一起去过其中一次。我们试图在全世界范围内为伯克希尔激起一些兴趣,诸如此类。我们大概是在20年前或25年前做过这个。
在那段时期——就是我给你们看过的那波集中行动——我们大概花了——我们大概至少花了50亿美元中的——是的,也许差不多——大约50亿美元——买了三只德国证券。
我们买了两——嗯,我们买了一——在日本。我们把已经持有的一些仓位补足了一些。
我们很愿意他们来找我们买,但他们那边不会那么快就想到我们。我是说,我没有那种人,会给我发邮件说,有一家我关注了60年的公司,我知道我可以在纽约见他们,你知道,我可以给他们报个数,如果他喜欢,他就可以拿去董事会讨论,等等。
事情不是那样发生的。我们在——嗯,在美国以外的任何地方——都没有那种经历。
现在,你可以说,手里有40万亿美元,你知道,我们应该能在(笑)离家近一点的地方找到点什么。
但我们对去海外收购没有任何偏见。我们——
有些公司,你知道,如果对方能在10分钟内谈成生意,我们10分钟内就会买下来。
在某些国家,收购企业比在美国要复杂得多,而且有各种各样的规定。
但显然这——你知道,我们接到过一个电话——不管是什么时候——很多年前,是关于我们在德国的那家公司。而且实际上,经营这家公司的那两位先生可能就在观众席里。我昨天见到他们了。他们非常出色。他们经营这家企业。而且,你知道——他们和——嗯,和这次会议开始前我们放的那部影片里出现的所有人一样值得信赖。你知道——
我们找到好点子实在太难了,所以我们不能对任何一个掉以轻心。但现在这些企业的规模必须够大才行。我是说,真的没有——没有太多——
我很喜欢我们在德国收购的那家企业,能和那里的人共事真是一件乐事。我只希望我们能在所有数字后面再加一个零,让这笔交易大得多。
这不会对伯克希尔产生什么经济上的影响。但他们热爱这份事业。他们在乎。你能看得出来,你能感受得到。这正是我们想要拥有的那种企业,我们很高兴伯克希尔拥有它。但我们不能每次只做一个(听不清)像路易斯那样规模的交易。
而且我们永远、永远不会出售那样的一家企业,绝不会。格雷格,我说的就是你。(笑)
不过——你知道——但如果——如果明天我们接到一个电话,能做成一笔涉及100亿或200亿美元、发生在德国、法国、英国或日本——或者随便说出一大堆国家——的交易,我们会做的。
几年前我们买入了日本五大贸易公司的股权。后来我把持股比例稍微往上凑了凑。但我一开始就跟他们说过,没有他们的同意,我们不会大幅改变持仓。
所以,我想我们实际上把这五家公司的持股比例都凑到了5.85%左右——按当时我们拿到的最新数据算的。那用掉了好几百亿——或者说好几亿,也许一两十亿美元的资金。所以,我们会,你知道——
肯尼迪总统说过,我们愿意付出任何代价,翻越任何高山——(笑)——不管是什么——去找到好企业。
但我们实际上更喜欢那种自己送上门来的机会,就像收到一封信,是你已经好几年没联系的人写来的,而你知道这家企业值多少钱。你也知道,如果那家公司的董事会觉得这个价格有吸引力,他们会很乐意把公司卖掉。而且他们知道,你到时候一定会出现在交割现场,也不会往公司里堆债务或者去做别的什么改变。
他们心里有了答案,然后你就得看看,他们心里想的那个问题是不是——对Alleghany公司来说,什么才是最好的选择?就那次而言,从当天开始到当天结束——或者说,到那顿晚餐结束的时候——我们手上的钱少了110亿美元。
所以,机会可能出现在任何地方。举例来说,我们在以色列就有一家很棒的企业,我是说,真的很棒。而且规模也相当可观。
我们还想再拥有一家那样的企业吗?想啊,我只是不知道另一家在哪儿。查理?
12. 为回购股票辩护——只要价格合适
芒格:嗯,不过你想想看,把这事放到全局里看——花600亿美元回购我们自己的股票。我们喜欢这些业务。我们喜欢我们付出的价格。没有额外开销,没有成本,什么都没有,只是对我们已经拥有的东西多了一份权益。这可不是我们在完全浪费时间。
巴菲特:是的,如果你去看的话,关于股票回购,有——你可以读到几十万——也许几百万字的东西,讲这是什么、那是什么,诸如此类。其实并不复杂。(笑)
我是说,假如你在一个柠檬水摊子里有个合伙人,他想退出——出售他的份额——或者有两个合伙人,其中一个想卖掉他的份额——我是说——而这家企业有钱能买下这份份额——我们那个小柠檬水摊——而且他们出的价格对留下来的另外两个人来说是划算的,你就会买下来。
现在,让我着迷的是,你能做成什么样的事情,而人们却依然——不去关注它。
我们曾经持有——在1998年,你知道——那是20多年前了——我们持有大约1.5亿股——我不知道后来有没有拆股——不管怎样——如果拆过股,这个数字是按拆股调整过的——反正我们持有1.5亿股美国运通的股票。
我想我们最后一次买入是在1998年左右。
当时我们持有美国运通公司11.2%的股份——一家了不起的公司。
从那以后,他们每个季度都会给我们寄一张支票,作为股息。所以,随着时间推移,我们也拿到了一些现金。
而现在我们持有美国运通20%的股份。是的,这就是因为他们回购了股票才发生的事。这次恰好效果非常好。如果他们回购股票的价格出得太高之类的——那不能解决所有问题——但如果你手里有一份你喜欢的资产,而对方又提升了你的持股比例,那是件很美妙的事。
就像我说的,我们的持股比例从11.2%涨到了20%。而且,不管你用的是美国运通卡还是别的什么卡,20%的——不管是什么样的——收益,都会为我们那份原本只有11.2%的权益多贡献一点,而且我们没有多掏一分钱。
现在,设想一下——设想你有一个农场,有640英亩地,你每年都耕种它,赚了点小钱,而且你喜欢种地这件事。
然后不知怎么的,20来年之后,它变成了1100或1200英亩。我是说,你会说,这是怎么回事,都持续了多久了?你知道,这怎么可能?——你知道——这是不是不合常理?——或者随便什么说法。我是说,这是不是——你知道——对资本成本的合理运用?诸如此类,诸如此类。
只要价格合适,没有什么比回购自己的企业更好的事了。
我们持有——我提到过,也拿苹果举过例子,说明我们在苹果的权益是怎么增长的,你知道——每次一家一年赚1000亿美元的公司——你知道——这就意味着我们在它里面的权益比例又涨了0.1个百分点。你知道,我们又给收益添了1亿美元。
嗯,这可要花不少功夫呢(笑)——一亿美元的盈利。而且你知道,他们刚公布的第一季度——他们用的是财年制——但他们刚公布了3月份那个季度的业绩——你知道,他们赚了更多的钱,而且流通在外的股份还更少了。
我们其实在第一季度左右又多买了一点苹果。我们决定想拥有更大的权益比例。而且除此之外,我们知道,如果他们继续回购自己的股票,我们持有的权益比例会变得更大——我们没有任何内幕消息之类的——但这显然是可以下注的方向。
而且你知道,我们感觉更好,是因为我们是在市场上买的这些股票。而对于他们用现金买断了其他一些股东这件事,我们(笑)也同样感到满意。
这本来是世界上最简单不过的事情,然后我却看到一大堆那种(评论)文章。
人们竟然想不明白这么简单的道理,真是不可思议。你想啊,如果你有一块农场,你邻居也有一块农场,然后你在自己耕种自己那块地的同时,还在不断地——不花一分钱——获得他那块地更多的份额——至少你知道,你是在用一部分盈利来做这件事——你会为此感到非常高兴的。
查理,你对此有什么解释吗?
13. 把董事长和CEO角色分开是“荒谬的”
查理·芒格:嗯,还有一件事让我对当前的这种情形很感兴趣。
我们收到很多来自指数基金的建议信,说——董事长和首席执行官是同一个人,说他们那儿有位教授,认为如果沃伦能被一分为二,让两半各自工作,美国企业的运作会更好。
在我看来,这是我听过的最荒唐的批评。这就好比——就好比——奥德修斯打赢了特洛伊之战,凯旋归来,然后有人说,我不喜欢你打赢那场仗时握长矛的姿势。(笑)
而这话是某个从没经营过任何企业、什么都不懂的人说的。我对这种活动不怎么看得上。(掌声)
沃伦·巴菲特:好,我看看。这段话在这儿的什么地方——我可能一会儿能找到。啊,找到了。
我们在年报里写了——在那份九页报告的第三段——我们说,“我们会一视同仁地对待所有人。”这可能是我们脑子里一个很疯狂的想法,但我们真心认为,一个在1960年、1970年或1980年把自己的积蓄交给我们、然后就一直放在我们这里、信任我们的人,理应得到和那些拼命积累管理资产、按管理资产规模拿报酬、只知道要奉行那些在华盛顿吃得开的政策的人一样的尊重和关注。
他们脑子里唯一想的就是,华盛顿有时候会说,你们规模大得太离谱了,我们要对你们采取行动了。
所以,他们就想方设法确保自己做的事情能得到大家的喝彩。
所以,我说,“好吧,我们会一视同仁地对待你们所有人。”我们外面有三百万人——或者说股东。我们会一视同仁地对待你们所有人。
结果3月25日,也就是我写那封信大约一个月之后——那可是在第三段里写的,你以为他们至少会读到那儿——他们有1.01亿股B类股——我是说,真该有人读到第三段啊。
但不管怎样,我们收到一封信,上面写着:“我们希望在伯克希尔·哈撒韦2022年年度股东大会召开之前与您会面,讨论伯克希尔·哈撒韦在治理和可持续发展方面的看法。”
嗯,关于这个话题,我大概比任何一位公司经营者写得都要坦诚、都要多。但他们凭什么会觉得,我们该跟他们见面,而不是跟你们这些专程来到这里的人(笑)一一见面呢?(掌声)
我在一个非常非常非常共和党的家庭里长大,但我现在感觉自己像是——你知道——某种狂热的民粹主义者之类的。
但我实在无法想象——嗯,算了。你们都听到了。(笑)
而且,你知道,有人靠这个拿薪水——嗯,我相信有很多人从事公关工作,他们雇佣顾问,因为如果有顾问告诉他们董事长和CEO该不该是同一个人,看起来会更体面些,而那些人就靠这个拿报酬。然后他们在董事会会议上讨论这个问题,然后,你知道——
说到底,相信我,如果出于某种原因,90%的国会议员都觉得董事长和CEO是同一个人更好,那些指数基金(笑)就不会写这些信了,因为他们唯一要担心的,就是别让人们开始琢磨,为什么某个机构在这个国家每一家主要公司里都握有10%的投票权。
而且我很认同指数基金这个理念。但看着激励机制、官僚体制之类的东西把人引向何方,还是挺有意思的。
给我写这封信的人大概是个很不错的人。那是他的工作。
嗯,不管怎样,他们没能开成那个专场会议。而你们都在这里,我们很感激你们能来。(掌声)
14. BNSF的改善需要时间
沃伦·巴菲特:好。回到贝姬这边。
贝姬·奎克:这个问题是问阿吉特和格雷格的。来自Ben Nall(音),他是一位持股30年的股东。他是内布拉斯加本地人,他说他今天会来参加这次大会。
“BNSF和GEICO在各自的两个主要竞争对手——联合太平洋(Union Pacific)和前进保险(Progressive)——面前,似乎正在丢失阵地。”
“过去几年里,UP的营运比率一直比BNSF好大约400个基点。”
“而前进保险在保持比GEICO更低的综合成本率的同时,增长得更快。从运营层面看,UP(联合太平洋)的精准调度铁路运营模式和前进保险的车载信息系统,似乎已经把伯克希尔旗下的这些业务甩在了后面。”
他想知道格雷格和阿吉特正在采取什么措施来应对这些业务挑战。
格雷格·阿贝尔:要我先说吗?好。谢谢你,贝姬。
我先说一句,说到BNSF,我们拥有的是一个非常出色的特许经营业务,一门伟大的生意。
而且我们确实在和其他铁路公司竞争,我们非常清楚他们是怎么运营的,包括他们的营运比率、他们运营所依据的各项指标,以及精准调度铁路运营模式。
这些都是其中的一部分。但我想说的是,说到BNSF,我们首先关注的是我们的客户,理解如何能最好地为他们服务,同时,没错,我们也希望以一种高效、有效的方式来做这件事,从而为我们的股东带来出色的成果。
这将一直是我们关注的重点。所以,没错,我们会从他们公布的所有指标、以及他们运营铁路的方式中学习,我们也在观察这一切。但我可以说,把我们的团队放在他们旁边,任何一个运营日我们都不逊色。我们运送车厢的能力,会和美国任何一家铁路公司一样出色。而我们做这一切,都是为了我们的客户。
所以,我们感到非常自豪,但我们并没有忽视这样一个事实:无论是在运营层面,还是在服务客户方面,都还有更多工作要做。
所以,我们会持续看到那里的改善。我们在那儿有一支出色的领导团队。我们在BNSF内部有一支出色的员工队伍。我喜欢的一点是,我们将会看到那里长期的改善。
我们在西部拥有一个非常出色的多式联运特许经营网络。从长远来看,这对我们的股东、我们的合作伙伴来说都极具价值。
这正是我们团队专注要做的事——把这个特许经营网络进一步做大做强。
所以,对于我们目前所处的位置,我们感到无比自豪,但我们也清楚前面还有一段路要走。我们会继续变得越来越好。
查理·芒格:格雷格,如果有机会让我们拿我们的业务去换他们的,你愿意换吗?
格雷格·阿贝尔:绝不。绝不。而且我们热爱我们的——
芒格:他很懂这个,菲尔。(笑)
格雷格·阿贝尔:我们有一个很棒的特许经营业务,也有一支很棒的领导团队在管理它。说得好,查理,谢谢。
巴菲特:在我们请阿吉特发言之前——格雷格,你知道,他做了大约20年的重要合伙人,或者说更长一点,从我们收购那家能源公司开始。他的上司是大卫·索科尔。他们两个,我是说,他们懂得怎么经营企业。
这并不是说我们不看别人的数字之类的。但我们找到了最合适的人选来经营,那就是凯蒂·法默。我们找到了经营BNSF最合适的人,她会做得很出色的。
以各种方式改变一条铁路——你知道,如果你有大约21,000英里的自有轨道,还有各种别的——这还不算侧线和复线——而你有很多事情要做,因为这些东西是几百年前——也不完全是几百年前——开始修建的,你没法很容易地(笑声)挪动这些东西。而且城镇不断在扩张。
你知道,1862年你来到奥马哈的时候,铁路甚至都还没跨过那条河,尽管我们后来成了西部的一个重要铁路枢纽,或者说通往西部的门户。
而我们一百年后仍会在这里。我们将是这个国家一项重要的、真正至关重要的资产。它也将是伯克希尔非常重要的一部分——非常关键的一部分。
而我们将拥有的,我认为,是一个令人难以置信的集合体,由随着时间推移合并起来的300多家铁路公司组成。
你知道,铁轨是150年前铺设的,路线也是那时候规划好的。世界在变化,但我们必须去适应它。
但你不可能下一道命令,就在几个小时之内改变上千英里轨道的走向,或者它的运营方式之类的。
所以,我们经营它是为了让伯克希尔股东拥有这项资产,而这样做也将有利于这个国家。
不管是谁在经营它,它对这个国家来说都会是重要的——显然是极其重要的。到那时候,UP(联合太平洋铁路)也仍然会存在。
一百年后它会是一条比现在更好的铁路。但我没法向你们保证接下来几个月如果发生洪水之类的情况会怎样。
你知道,那可能会毁掉你原有的很多计划,扰乱很多人的生活,也扰乱很多货运。
在铁路行业没有魔杖能让你实现巨大的变革。但另一方面,你应该每天都在努力,让它变得更好一点。
我忘了我们有多少座桥了,但几年前我们每年在资本支出上要花30亿到40亿美元。(前BNSF首席执行官)马特·罗斯——我说,维护一条铁路要花这么多钱啊。然后他说,嗯,我们以后还得花更多,诸如此类。
我说,好吧,我说,这部分我能应付。我不确定查理行不行。(笑)我得把这些数字给他解释清楚。
所以,他们买的下一座桥——他们建的——被命名为查尔斯·T·芒格桥。所以你真的可以(笑声)去看看,我们的铁路上有一座查尔斯·T·芒格桥,因为十年前查理就在问类似的问题。
15. GEICO 采用远程信息技术以对抗前进保险(Progressive)
巴菲特:阿吉特?
阿吉特·贾因:好,谢谢你,贝姬。
毫无疑问,个人汽车保险业务是一个竞争非常激烈的业务。
话虽如此,GEICO 和前进保险都是这个细分市场里非常成功的两个竞争者。它们各有各的优点和缺点。
但话说回来,毫无疑问,最近前进保险的表现比GEICO要好得多,正如你指出的那样,无论是在利润率上还是在增长率上都是如此。
造成这一点的原因有好几个,但我认为就GEICO而言,最主要的罪魁祸首——你也正确地指出了——是远程信息技术(telematics)。
前进保险在远程信息技术这趟顺风车上已经搭了,我不知道,超过10年,可能接近20年了。
GEICO 在此之前一直没有涉足远程信息技术。只是在最近两年,他们才开始认真地努力,利用远程信息技术进行客户细分,并试图让费率与风险相匹配。
这是一段漫长的旅程。但这段旅程已经开始了,初步结果令人鼓舞。
这需要一段时间,但我的希望和预期是,但愿在接下来一两年内,GEICO 能够在远程信息技术方面追上前进保险。也希望这最终能转化为增长率和利润率两方面的提升。
巴菲特:查理,你有什么要补充的吗?(掌声)
16. 州立农业保险(State Farm)的成功驳斥了商学院所教的东西
巴菲特:这非常有意思。我是说,汽车保险行业是一个很有意思的研究对象,因为如今最大的汽车保险公司——我们说的是2022年——你知道,亨利·福特——我是说,1903年左右,汽车才真正开始起步。
没过多少年,他就做到了一年生产两百万辆车。想想看,一个人,一年两百万辆车,那可是相当多的车。
所以,在人们谈到保险时想到的还是海上船只和火灾、有各种互助保护会的那几百年之后,汽车保险变得非常重要。
保险这种产品已经存在很久了。但自从利奥·古德温1936年创立GEICO以来,汽车保险基本上一直没什么变化。
我们带着一个好点子加入了进来,还有一大堆大公司等等。
但美国最大的汽车保险公司,是在伊利诺伊州由一个对保险并不特别懂行的人创立的。
它是一家互助保险公司。按理说它在资本主义制度下不应该成功。我是说,你知道,如果你去读商学院,他们会教你说,只有靠激励机制、薪酬安排等等各种手段,公司才能成功。
可是,没人真的靠州立农业保险发了财。他们就那样一直在做——
而他们却是最大的保险公司。利奥·古德温大约80多年前创立了GEICO,他可能是想发财的。前进保险的人,你知道,可能也想发财。旅行者保险、安泰保险——你可以数出几十家、上百家公司。
那谁赢了呢?你知道,一家互助保险公司。
就目前的规模而言,他们仍然是最大的公司。如果不算伯克希尔的话,他们的净资产是最大的,遥遥领先。我想他们的净资产大概有1400亿美元左右。你知道,而且——
前进保险在很长一段时间里,一直有一个非常非常聪明的人在经营。他们现在也有非常聪明的人在经营。
但他们的净资产只有伊利诺伊州那些没人叫得出名字(笑)的人经营多年后所拥有的六分之一。而且他们本来有时间去销售同样的产品,也拼命打广告。
我们每年花20亿美元,告诉人们我们70年、80年来一直在告诉他们的同一件事,你知道的。
这个政策没有变。但等一切都尘埃落定,State Farm 做的生意还是比谁都多。而按理说,在资本主义制度下它根本不该存在,你知道的。
如果你今天带着一份计划,想创办一家 State Farm 去和 Progressive 竞争,你知道,谁会拿出这笔资本呢?(笑)
我是说,一家互助公司,你根本拿不到利润?这完全说不通,除非他们已经有大约 1400 亿的净资产。
而 Progressive,我不知道他们的净资产是多少,但应该在 200 亿左右吧,我已经很久没查了。他们的净资产在第一——
顺带一提,我是说,他们在承保上非常、非常、非常严谨自律。当然,在投资那一端,他们的净资产在第一季度下跌了,因为他们持有大量债券。
他们会说,嗯——大概保险业里每个人都会这么说——我们持有债券,因为大家都是这么做的。(笑)
这里就是这样:一半业务是照别人做的去做,而另一半——另一半业务,你要花大量时间去分析每个郡、每一种能细分和恰当定价业务的方式。
你知道,基本上——[前 Progressive 董事长]彼得·刘易斯当年坐在我办公室里——对,40 年前——他聪明得不得了。而且,你知道,这家伙显然注定会成为伯克希尔的一个主要竞争对手。他对保险业了如指掌,反反复复都懂,非常聪明,各方面都很出色。
但他就是完全忽视了投资那一端,而那一端和承保那一端(笑)同样重要。
这也挺有意思的,一个组织是怎么运作的,又是怎么——我该说,在某种程度上——存在盲点的。
当然,查理和我知道,我们自己也有各种各样的盲点。
所以我们得小心一点,别去批评别人有盲点。(笑)这——
汽车保险这门生意,真该拿到商学院去研究,因为它基本上驳倒了他们现在教的很多东西。所以这就是我今天给商学院的建议。好了。(笑)
谢谢你,阿吉特。你没法——阿吉特为伯克希尔增加的价值,超过了 Progressive 全部的净资产。这不是在贬低 Progressive,我只是在说一个人做到了这些。(掌声)
17.「我们从来没有对什么东西择过时」
沃伦·巴菲特:好,二号台。
拉吉德·埃尔杜瓦尔:你好,沃伦和查理。很高兴见到你们二位,还有这些了不起的伯克希尔经理人。感谢你们所做的一切。
我叫拉吉德·埃尔杜瓦尔(音),来自新泽西。我的问题是关于市场择时的。你一直说,择时是不可能做到的。
可是如果我们看你的往绩记录,你在一些关键决策上的时机把握得相当精妙。
你在 1969 年和 1970 年退出了股市。又在 1972 年、1974 年市场真正便宜的时候重新入场。1987 年、1999 年、2000 年你也做了同样的事。
而今天,在市场下跌的时候,我们手上握着一大笔现金。
我的问题是,你是怎么把大的市场波动择时择得这么好的?
沃伦·巴菲特:我们想先请你来上班。(笑声)
拉吉德·埃尔杜瓦尔:我接受。(笑声)
沃伦·巴菲特:有意思的是,你知道,很显然,我们完全不知道股市周一开盘会怎么走。我们从来都不知道。我们从来没有做过——
查理和我——我想在我们一起共事的这么长时间里——我待会儿也许会跟你讲讲学习是怎么发生的——但我们从来没有——我想我们从来没有做过这样一个决定:我们俩中的任何一个说过,或者哪怕是心里想过,应该基于市场将会怎么走去买或卖。
查理·芒格:没有。
沃伦·巴菲特:或者说,基于经济会怎么走。我们不知道。
有意思的是,有时候我在某些地方会因为这件事得到一些赞誉,说,你知道,2008 年大家都对股票很悲观的时候我们却很乐观,这太了不起了,诸如此类。
你知道,我们在一个非常愚蠢的时机,花掉了我们净资产中很大一部分。(笑)
我不该说我们,应该说是我。
我们花了大约 150 亿或 160 亿美元——那时候这笔钱对我们来说,比现在要大得多——我们是在最后几周花掉的,前后三四周的时间——在箭牌和高盛之类的交易上——事后看来,那是个糟糕透顶的时机。
我是说,我当时不知道那会是个好时机还是坏时机,但那确实是个非常愚蠢的时机。
我还为《纽约时报》写了一篇文章,《买美国货》,诸如此类的东西。
要是我真有什么择时的本事,等上六个月——我记得低点是在 3 月——事实上我记得那天我可能还上了 CNBC,或者差不多是那时候。
但我完全错过了那个机会。我完全错过了,你知道,2020 年 3 月那次。
我们从来没有在择时上做得好。我们还算擅长判断,我们花的钱是不是物有所值。我们买任何东西的时候都不知道会怎样——是的,我们总是希望它先跌一段时间,好让我们能多买一些,甚至希望等我们买完、没钱可买了之后,如果它还便宜,公司会自己继续回购,实际上等于替我们把持股比例往上抬。
我是说,这些东西你上四年级就能学会。可学校里教的不是这个。
所以千万别把功劳算在我们头上。哦,其实,功劳都算给我们也行。我是说,出去跟大家说我们有多聪明,可我们其实并不聪明。(笑声)
我们从来没有对什么东西择过时。我们也从来没有摸索出什么洞察经济的门道。
我是说,我 11 岁的时候,我想是 1942 年 3 月 12 日——或者是 3 月 11 日——你知道,我买入股票的时候道琼斯指数是 90 点——嗯,早上是 101 点——我想那天收盘是 99 点——而你知道,现在它是 34,000 点,或者也许比上周四还低了 1,000 点。(笑声)
但你知道,这是一个决定,那就是持有美国的企业是件好事。
你知道,要是哈佛的捐赠基金在我 11 岁的时候来找我,(笑)或者通用汽车的养老基金之类的,然后他们说,不行,我们得讲究个平衡。我们可能得配置 60%。然后我们还得每三个月坐下来,听一群基金经理讲话。
他们要是干脆拿几支飞镖去扔,然后说,我们相信 50 年后、100 年后美国仍然存在,我们持股的收益会比持债好——这样反而会做得更好。
人们能把一个如此简单的游戏,搞得这么复杂,真是令人惊讶。
但是,如果他们把这个游戏告诉每个人说其实很简单的话,那么在场发言的人中90%甚至更多的收入就会消失。
所以,指望人们会解释自己其实并没有比你自己做的更增值,这对人性来说确实有点强人所难。
或者说,你知道——我不太想用这个例子——但你完全可以让猴子朝着报纸投飞镖来选股。而且,你知道,去掉管理费之类的东西,我愿意赌猴子会赢。
但我并不认为他们是更优越的物种。我也不希望他们搬来当我的邻居,取代我现在的邻居,(笑)之类的,但事情就是这样,没办法。
查理,你有什么振奋人心的话要说吗?(笑)
18.「资本主义分配回报的方式非常古怪」
芒格:嗯,在财富顾问这一行,过去经常是这样:你去找你的投资顾问,问,我该怎么做才能保障自己的未来?
他说,不如你现在先给我5万美元的净资产吧?这就是我对你未来的贡献。(笑)
这是个很古怪的行当。(笑)
巴菲特:是啊,这是个很棒的把戏,因为你(听不清)致富。这仍然是——
如果你有儿子或女儿真的想按每一分智商、每一份精力赚到最多的钱,诸如此类,那就告诉他们去华尔街吧。我是说,别让他们去当神职人员什么的。
我是说,如果那是他们想要的。这是自我选择的结果。而且情况永远都会是这样。
我是说,没有理由因为人们按自身利益行事就对人类感到绝望。从长期看,他们可能其实并没有真正符合自身利益,但他们——你知道,他们更快乐了吗?谁知道呢?
但如果他们只是想赚钱——
嗯,在场的观众看过所罗门(兄弟公司)事件中的一段片段。
杰里·科里根当时是纽约联储主席,同一个委员会在盘问他。他们说,科——他们在为难他——他们说,谁是薪酬最高的——他们大概是这么问的——去年所罗门薪酬最高的人是谁?
他说,嗯,然后他说出了那个人的名字——也许他说了名字——他只是说那人拿到了——我记不清是不是去年的2000万——我们说的是1991年——他说,也许他拿了2000万。
那人说,那他多大了?然后,你知道,他说,嗯我想他——科里根大概说的是,他,你知道,26岁左右吧。
然后科里根忍不住补了一句,他连橄榄球都扔不好。(笑)
而事实是,你知道——如今扔橄榄球能赚到的钱比过去多多了。
你知道,我的一个偶像是泰德·威廉姆斯。我记得他一年大概挣2万到2万5千美元。
你知道,想想现在,某个打击率只有二成三、二成四的球员,只要他能打进大联盟,那钱就哗哗地流进来了。
当然,这些人理应坐下来感谢这一点:那座能容纳3万或4万人的球场——正是给他们发工资的人的收入来源——从3万人变成4万人,是因为有人先发明了电视,接着又出现了有线电视、付费电视这些东西。
而没有人知道这些人的名字。但资本主义分配回报的方式非常、非常、非常古怪。
有一段时间,待在华尔街比在大联盟当一个打击率二成二、二成三的球员要好得多。
而如今,因为电视等技术的发展,情况已经反过来了。
所以,这是个疯狂的世界。回报看起来非常、非常、非常、非常随意任性,而事实也确实如此。
对任何一位神学家来说都说不通,甚至对查理和我在闲暇时想一想,整件事都显得有点疯狂。
但它的效果非常好。即便是那些没能占到便宜——被这套体系亏待的人——他们的境况也远远好过体系没有发生这种变化时的情形。
这并不意味着你就不该努力去推动改变,但你应该认识到,在改变人性这件事上,你能做的是有限的,这么说吧。
好了,查理,你想怎么给这段说教收个尾?(笑)
19. 人生下半场,你应该成为一个更好的人
芒格:嗯,我确实认为我们有一个非常有意思的现象,就是——
我认为,在很多财富顾问业务中,人们收的是技能的费用,交付的却是变相的指数化投资。
换句话说,没有人能忍受自己的业绩和大众差别太大。他们害怕会因此失去费用收入。所以,大家都做同样的事情。这有点荒唐可笑。
这个世界有点荒唐可笑。(笑)
巴菲特:是啊。但正如查理在那部片子里指出的——只有在场的人看过——在我们结婚之前,你知道,我们都曾试图让几位年轻女士相信,我们其实比真实的自己更有魅力。我是说——(笑)
你不能指望人们不按自身利益行事。而这一点非常重要,就是我们在结婚之前没有把自己所有的弱点都暴露出来。所以——
芒格:沃伦和我都在努力让自己变得更好一点。(笑)
巴菲特:是啊,那倒是真的——
芒格:我们可能会有点做不到。我不知道你怎么样,但我从17岁到现在确实有了些许长进。(笑)
巴菲特:是啊,嗯——(笑)
这其实是个很有意思的观点,因为如果命运一直把各种好事都倾洒在你身上,那你的人生下半场就应该比上半场做一个更好的人。我是说,这真的不算是对人们过高的要求。
如果他们中了「卵巢彩票」,出生在美国,各种各样的好事都降临在他们身上,而你也有机会看清自己曾经有多蠢、做过多少荒唐事,那么,为什么不让人生下半场比上半场过得更好呢?
我想说——虽然是从一个很低的起点出发——但我是说,我并不——你知道,不论用什么智力测验还是做事的能力来衡量,我并没有学到什么。但有些东西,你确实只能通过和人打交道才能学到。
你不知道,当你两岁的时候,不管你从这个世界上汲取了多少各种各样的知识,一个两岁孩子脑袋里正在运转的那台学习机器,简直不可思议。
但那和真正拥有三四十年经验、了解人这种动物到底是怎么表现的,是不一样的——你知道,你一直在学习这方面的东西。
但那应该会让你在人生的后半段,比前半段更成为一个更好的人。
我要说的是,如果你说你在后半段变得更好了,并且在前半段有理由这么说的话——那,你知道,就把前半段忘了吧。(笑)
享受后半段吧。
查理和我都有这样的奢侈:第一,活得够久,所以我们得以经历,我们认为是充满希望和值得尊重的后半段人生。
我们也有足够的悟性去弄明白——嗯,我们弄明白了什么能让我们快乐。而且我们对什么会让别人不快乐之类的事情,也变得更加敏感了一些。
我宁愿被我人生的后半段来评判,而不是前半段,查理也一样。
芒格:是的,当然。
巴菲特:好。
芒格:我这个人非常——我甚至都不去看我年轻时做过的事,因为那会让我难堪。(笑)
巴菲特:是啊。好吧。
你们当中谁想就具体细节盘问查理,可以待会儿去问他。(笑)
20. 伯克希尔无法防范核武器带来的风险
巴菲特:贝姬。
贝姬·奎克:这是一个分两部分的问题。第一部分是问沃伦和阿吉特的,第二部分是问格雷格的。问题来自罗杰·克莱夫曼(音)。
他说:“几年前,巴菲特先生曾说过,核打击是伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险业务面临的最大风险。
“考虑到目前的局势,如果在有人口居住的世界某处发生核事件,伯克希尔·哈撒韦保险会受到怎样的冲击?
“其次,问格雷格:伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司是否遭受过任何实体攻击或网络攻击?不管有没有,公司是否为此专门加强了安全防护?”
巴菲特:是的。嗯,先说第一部分:自1945年8月以来的每一天——而且随着第二个大国也具备了杀死数百万人的能力之后,这种风险被以惊人的倍数放大了——每一天都存在这种风险。
这是一个非常非常微小的风险。不过就像阿吉特会告诉你的,或者这张桌子上的任何人都能告诉你的那样,如果你不停地掷骰子——嗯,拉斯维加斯的沙漠旅馆(Desert Inn)以前有一副骰子放在一个玻璃罩子底下。有个人连续掷出了32把顺子(passes)。我也不知道,那概率可能是八百万分之一,或者四百万分之一——不对,是四十亿分之一。
但是,你知道,只要你一直掷下去,什么事情都会发生。我是说,如果你明天让三亿三千万美国人都出来,每个美国人都猜正面还是反面,而且每天都猜一次,十天之后,你就会有33万人连续猜中了十次。
如果你再猜十天,还是会有一批人连续猜中了二十次。而他们真的会以为自己已经学会了如何操控这个抛硬币的结果。
嗯,答案就是,这个世界每天都在抛一枚硬币,赌的是那些真能把我们所知的这个星球彻底毁灭的人,会不会真的这么做。
而不幸的是,最大的问题出在那些拥有大量核武器和洲际弹道导弹储备的国家身上。
当他们谈到使用战术核武器,因为有人会因为打输了一场战争而恼怒的时候——我是说,难道有人真的认为,一个愿意用战术武器杀死几十万人的人,会就此罢手吗?
这是一个非常非常非常非常危险的世界。而且——
芒格:但我们没有任何办法——
巴菲特:没有——
芒格:——去防范——
巴菲特:没有办法去防——
芒格:——防范一场大规模的核打击。
我认识一个人,他说,我知道如果发生核战争我会怎么做。我会爬到桌子底下,跟自己的屁股吻别。(笑)
巴菲特:嗯,是啊。而查理正是伯克希尔负责损失控制的人。(笑)
我们对此没有任何解决办法。
芒格:是的,没有。
巴菲特:而且根本就不存在什么解决办法。
而且,你知道,仔细想想是很不可思议的:1939年8月——9月1日,也就是希特勒入侵波兰的那一天——但当时这里其实没人真正了解多少情况。我是说,你得到的消息,都是从你去电影院看的新闻纪录片里获得的,因为那时候电影院有空调,你懂的。
所以,如果我去看电影——在八月份你会想去看电影,因为电影院有空调——嗯,就是9月1日德军实际开进波兰那次——但,你知道,那不过是银幕上几个人影,加上某个声音很有权威感的人告诉你,德军刚刚开进了波兰,也许还配上几辆坦克的画面。一分钟就放完了。
而现在呢,当然是每天、全天候,你都能看到你深深共情的人在死去,而且那个死去的人本可能就是你自己而不是他们。这真是太不一样了。
但在1939年8月,有一封信寄给了[富兰克林]·罗斯福总统,大概提前了一个月。
他为什么会收到那封信呢?他收到那封信,基本上是因为希特勒极度反犹。
他把所有能预见到这一切、能逃出去的犹太人都逼出了德国。其中就有一些伟大的科学家。
还有列奥·西拉德,他显然来自匈牙利,也是不知怎么就被逼了出来。爱因斯坦也被逼了出来。
列奥·西拉德最终辗转来到了美国。他写了一封信,告诉美国总统富兰克林·D.·罗斯福,说有一批铀正以各种方式被运来运去,或者别的什么情况。我对物理学一无所知,一点都不懂。我也不懂那种开关信号是怎么回事。
但不管怎样,我知道那封信起了什么作用。因为他写了一封信,说,你知道,物理学上可能会有重大突破,美国最好率先抓住。
但接下来他遇到一个问题:我怎么把信递到罗斯福手里?你知道,利奥·西拉德算什么人物,能让美国总统理会?
所以,他想,如果能让爱因斯坦联署,总统就会重视。他猜对了。所以(笑)他去找了爱因斯坦,两人一起把信寄了出去。
他们把信寄给了罗斯福。要是希特勒没有那些对犹太人的疯狂想法,他们本来未必会身在美国。
总之,那封信就这样发出去了,我们比其他任何国家都先造出了原子弹。
利奥·西拉德和爱因斯坦最终落脚在美国而不是别的地方,这是一次非常、非常幸运的历史机缘。谁知道呢?
但历史的偶然——在核武器方面,还会有更多的偶然事件发生。
你知道,我们已经好几次险些出事了。我是说,曾经有大雁飞过,就在北方某处,北美防空司令部(NORAD)收到了一个乱七八糟的信号。
我们也遇到过苏联那边把训练磁带错放进系统的情况,看起来就像是真的在发生什么。
我们对此无能为力。而这正是伯克希尔完全不感兴趣去涉足的一种风险,尽管可以说世界上每个人都应该关心它。但这对我们没有任何好处——我是说,去想这个问题对我们没有任何好处。
但这并不能改变一个事实:世界上有两个大国,由于对彼此意图的误判,由于种种原因,过去曾多次险些酿成大祸。查理和我都亲身经历过古巴导弹危机。
你知道,我们当时清楚,大规模杀伤性武器被使用的可能性是存在的。
相信我,还有更多更糟的事情可能发生。
人类其实并没有真正找到应对科技的反制力量。我是说,回到穴居人时代,如果你是个反社会分子之类的,你顶多朝隔壁洞穴的人扔块石头。我是说,那大致是成比例的。
而我们不断发展,出现了一次突破,科技彻底超越了人性所能驾驭的程度。我们将拭目以待接下来会发生什么。但到目前为止还算好。
不过,伯克希尔对此并没有答案。有些东西我们不承保,因为反正我们也无法真正兑现赔付,就这么回事。
而且每个人都会知道,我们兑现不了。
你会面临这种风险,而伯克希尔无法为你提供任何保护。到目前为止,我们一直非常幸运。
阿吉特,你有没有被问到过类似的问题,比如——
阿吉特·贾因:除了沃伦刚才说的这些,就这种情况发生的可能性而言,让我更担心的一点是,我——我实在没有能力去真正估算,一旦发生核事件,我们的实际风险敞口究竟有多大。
当谈到我们面临的其他重大风险敞口时,比如地震、飓风和网络风险,我可以有相当程度的把握,对我们的敞口可能有多大、损失可能有多大,形成一个判断。
但一涉及核事件,我基本上就投降了。
你知道,我们很难估算“糟糕”到底能糟到什么程度。
很多不同类别的风险敞口都会受到牵连。而且,尽管在我们几乎所有类型的合同里,我们都会尽量把核风险排除在承保范围之外,但如果真的发生这样的事情,我相当确信,监管机构和法院会站在被保险人一边,反过来要求重写合同条款,让我们承担赔付责任。
举个例子,已经有人在讨论这样一件事:我们出售所谓的“火灾保单”。这些火灾保单也会尽量把核风险排除在承保范围之外。
但有些监管机构觉得,哎,既然是火灾保单,如果核打击引发了火灾,你怎么能把火灾排除在外呢?你最好把火灾包括进去。
所以,你知道,这类争论我们将不得不长期面对,保险业想在承保范围这个问题上跟监管机构和法院系统对抗,会非常困难。
沃伦·巴菲特:而且到那时候也不会有什么监管机构或者别的什么了。所以——(笑声)
我们就把这事留给百万年后的重建工作去解决吧。(笑)
爱因斯坦说过:“我不知道第三次世界大战会用什么武器。但我知道第四次世界大战会用木棍和石头。”
你知道,还有很多事情——我是说——
如果你担心核打击的后果,那你要操心的事情,可比伯克希尔股票的价值重要多了,我就这么说吧。(笑声)
那我们还有什么别的令人愉快的话题?
提问台——
21. 伯克希尔一直在努力阻止网络攻击
格雷格·阿贝尔:沃伦,要不要我来讲讲网络方面的情况?
沃伦·巴菲特:哦,好,当然。
格雷格·阿贝尔:好,既然有人提到了,我就顺便讲讲网络这块。
当你想到伯克希尔的时候,他们会以伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司作为参照。
但网络风险,以及对这种风险的管理,在伯克希尔内部其实是贯穿我们所有子公司的。
这是一种持续存在的风险。这是我们一直在评估、并切实努力去防御的最大风险之一。
如果拿伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司来举例,我们的各种操作系统每天都会遭受数以十亿计的攻击。
所以这基本上就是我们团队存在的意义所在:他们一方面加固资产以抵御攻击,一方面每时每刻都在评估我们所遭遇的各种潜在攻击。
而且,顺便说一句,我们有好几家运营子公司都会经历这种情况。但很显然,铁路和能源,还有其他几家,是我们花大量时间、大量精力、大量资源重点投入的地方。
好消息是,到目前为止,我们的团队做得非常出色,我们确实还没有发生过重大事件。一些小企业出现过一些小状况,但在我们的主要业务、主要操作系统上,我们都建立了适当的安全防护机制,避免了事件的发生。
但是,我再说一遍,这种事从没停过。我们的团队会告诉你,他们每天都意识到这是一个风险,也是他们在业务内部正在应对的一个风险。
所以,这是一个重大的风险,也是我们所有运营团队的重要优先事项。
巴菲特:是的,我想再补充一点。格雷格对这方面的了解比我多得多,但据我所看到的一切,我的印象是,你知道——历史上,私营行业总说政府什么事都做不好,而政府也总说私营行业只顾自己,诸如此类。
事实是,从我所看到的一切来看,政府和企业在努力将网络问题威胁降到最低方面的合作,我认为基本上是极为出色的。
格雷格·阿贝尔:是的,说得很对。在网络安全方面,美国多个机构与我们各个业务之间的协作非常紧密。
包括一些机构基本上每天都会接收我们大量的运营数据,他们会帮助我们逐一排查,识别是否有不良分子、有个别人可能已经渗透进了我们的系统。
所以,这是一种紧密的协作。沃伦,你说得完全正确,看到行业和政府如此密切地合作,确实很独特。但我想我们都认识到,这是一个非常重大的风险,我们必须在应对方式上保持高度一致。
巴菲特:这是一种真正的伙伴关系。
这是一种真正的伙伴关系。我们可以因为政府的帮助而做得更好,政府也可以因为我们的帮助而做得更好,双方都不缺乏意愿。
而网络安全,我是说,简直让人难以想象。核武器是头号威胁,但发生的概率非常非常非常低,你知道的。
总有一天,太阳也会燃烧殆尽,你知道的。
但确实没有哪个地方容得下两个都拥有大量洲际弹道导弹能力、还有天知道什么别的东西的国家——但我们至今还没想明白该怎么解决。你知道的。
随便说说“这是解决办法”或者“那是解决办法”是很容易的。
但是,你知道,如果有两个人手持上了膛的枪对峙着,你知道——
芒格:而且不是每个人都能保持完全理性。
巴菲特:哦,我们见过太多非理性——当涉及人们的自身利益时,人们做出各种各样毁掉自己的事情,无论是在生活方式上,还是别的方面,都是如此。
而且,你知道,这种情况不会随着——(笑)——地位越爬越高就停止。
你知道,有些人——有些人会做可怕的事情。你只能非常希望,他们不会处在一个可以独自一人、把整个世界当作他们所谓的战利品来支配的位置上。
22. 最好的投资:“在某件事上做到极其出色”
巴菲特:好的。如果3号台愿意问点像“母亲和苹果派”那样无关痛痒的问题就好了。(笑)
达芙妮:亲爱的巴菲特先生和芒格先生。我叫达芙妮,来自纽约市,这是我第五次参加年度股东大会。(掌声)
巴菲特:嗯,我们很感谢你能来。真的,非常真诚地感谢。
达芙妮:如你们所知,过去连续四个月,我们一直在经历通货膨胀,通胀率超过7%,这是自1982年以来的第一次。
你们两位都曾经历过这种情况,那是1970年到1975年,当时你们的投资组合出现了账面亏损,但你们却做出了一生中最好的一些投资决策。
回顾那段经历,我的问题是,如果你必须选一只股票来押注——(笑)
巴菲特:你这一下差点把我们绕进去了。(笑)
达芙妮:——并且能够在通胀中保持韧性,你会选哪一只?具体来说,是什么让那只股票能够在很可能是艰难的市场中表现得非常好?
巴菲特:嗯,我要告诉你一件比那一只股票更好的事情。(笑)
也许我们最后会说到那一只股票。
但你能做的最好的事情,就是在某件事上做到极其出色。如果你是镇上最好的医生,如果你是镇上最好的律师,不管是什么,只要你是最好的,不管别人是付你天文数字的钱,还是付你别的什么,他们都会用他们生产出来的一部分东西,来交换你所提供的东西。
而如果你是他们挑中来做某件特定事情的人,唱歌也好,打棒球也好,做他们的律师也好,不管是什么,你所拥有的任何能力都不会被夺走,也不可能被通胀“通胀掉”。
别人会把他们生产的一部分小麦、棉花,或者别的什么,给你,来换取你所拥有的技能。
所以,迄今为止最好的投资,就是任何能够提升你自身的东西。而且,我再说一遍,这不用交税。(掌声)所以这就是我会做的事。
芒格:我也有个建议给你。(笑)
当你有了自己的退休账户,而你那位友善的理财顾问建议你把所有的钱都投进比特币——(笑)——那就直接说不。(笑)(掌声)
巴菲特:是啊。
没有人能夺走你所拥有的才能。而事实是,这个世界永远会需要人做事,总会有些人没有技能,他们从社会产出中分到的东西,就会比拥有其他技能的人少。
有时候这和教育有关,但很多时候,其实和教育没什么关系。
所以,只需要想清楚你想成为什么样的人,再想清楚怎么去实现——而你想成为的那种人,往往就是你很可能擅长的那种人,你知道——
这个世界永远需要有人在电视上告诉我们发生了什么事。所以,你知道,研究一下贝姬·奎克或者别的什么人(笑),弄清楚是什么让她做得好。以及你自身天生带来的那些东西是什么。
我是说,我本可以——那个说你得花一万个小时做这做那的人叫什么来着?马尔科姆·格拉德威尔。
马尔科姆·格拉德威尔,你知道,会说,在某件事上花一万个小时就行了。可我本可以花一万个小时去努力成为一名重量级拳击手,但(笑)我不觉得一万个小时结束的时候我会感觉很好。我是说——
而且,你知道,你会不经意间发现自己真正喜欢做的事,你擅长的事,对社会有用的事。到那时,一美元钞票,就购买力而言,现在到底值多少钱——一分钱、半分钱,还是百分之一分钱——都不再有任何区别了。
如果你是镇上最好的医生,你知道——他们会给你送鸡,不管他们会做什么——但他们夺不走这份本事。
我猜,如果你已经来参加过五次股东大会了,你知道,你未来的前景会非常好。我是说,这就说明——(笑)
它是自我筛选的,我是说——
所以,如果你想出售你自身的一部分,你知道,我们会把这当作我们能做的最好的投资来买。我们会拿走你未来收入的10%,现在给你一笔现金。(笑)
而且,你知道,我们会拥有一项了不起的资产。而你可以保留自己未来收入的100%。而且如果你培养了自己的才能——也许你会成为一名出色的舞者——人们会花钱去看伟大的舞者。我们这儿就有弗雷德·阿斯泰尔和他姐姐阿黛尔,他们都是从奥马哈出来的,你知道。
他们当时的姓是奥斯特利茨,但他们会跳舞。阿黛尔后来跟他一起做了些什么,搬去了英国。而弗雷德·阿斯泰尔则去做了一大堆其他的事情。
而金杰·罗杰斯得跟他做一模一样的动作,还是倒着做,穿着高跟鞋,而她拿的钱却没那么多,因为她是女人。
但你会做得很好的。我愿意在你身上下大注。(笑)
23.“伯克希尔是为永续经营而建立的。它没有终点”
沃伦·巴菲特:好的。贝姬?
贝姬·奎克:这个问题是给沃伦和阿吉特的。来自一位在以色列、名叫莫迪的人,他写道:“我和我的家人是伯克希尔的长期股东,我们打算永远持有它。我们喜欢现在的管理层从长远角度出发,去提升股东的内在价值。
“但我们不确定,在管理层交接的时候,新的管理层是否会像你们一样行事。
“它可能会在保险领域承担一些难以在资产负债表上看出来的风险,而这些风险可能要过许多年才会显现出来。
“我们想知道,我们该如何评估今天以及未来的保险风险,或者说,在你和阿吉特都不在了的时候,我们该如何及时了解到这一点。”
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我想说,长远来看,未来的确定性,已经是这个世界上能做到的最好程度了。
我们对核问题之类的事情没有答案,但我们有一种文化,a)它是行之有效的;b)我们有股份结构,以及会把这种文化延续下去很久很久的股东。
而且,你知道,第一年——假设我明天就死了——第一年,大家都会说,你知道,接下来会怎样?他们会不会把它分拆出去?他们可以做各种各样的事情。
你们的股份被安排在一个不可能出现那种情况的地方。你们有一个董事会,他们明白,我们的文化就是经营这家企业的99.9%。
他们不会觉得开各种委员会会议、请外部专家进来之类的事情,能起什么作用。
我是说,这是这个世界普遍采用的一套做法,他们这么做是有他们理解的理由的。但伯克希尔就是不一样,你知道。
我们这家企业存在的意义,就是让人们信任我们。而要兑现这种信任,我们所要做的其实是些相当简单的事情。
我们有能做到这一点的人。我们有做到这一点所需要的、多得令人难以置信的资源。
而且,只要你拥有做这件事所需的自由,这其实没那么难。
而这个世界会在一年之后写文章说,“一年过去了,伯克希尔发生了什么?”
你知道,铁路还是会以同样的方式运营。
当然,最大的担忧在于,有人跑进来,觉得只要作为一个群体,他们能赚到数十亿美元,或者说,那些出售企业的人会觉得,做私人企业更好,你知道,或者做“纯粹的”某种东西更好之类的。
呃,你知道,我们是一家纯粹的合伙企业,这就是我们所纯粹之处。(笑)
而我们确实与我们的股东有一种我们认为很特别的关系。我不认为这种关系会改变,所有权结构也不会有太大改变。
而且,没错,很长很长一段时间内不会有人能够收购我们。到了那个时候,我们希望,这种文化的优越性或许能被这个世界更好地理解一些。
而只要我们保持同样的文化,我们就会在100年后依然存在——当然,前提是我们没有经历核战争之类的事情。
但伯克希尔是为永续经营而建立的。它没有终点。
没有人在等着退休,或者等着期权归属,或者在想着——我们没有任何人在考虑,我该不该换个工作?你知道,他们在人生中做的,就是他们想做的事情。
而且这并不是因为,你知道,我们在跟别人开的价码竞价,或者猎头公司跑来说,我们想要这个人或那个人,要给他多少钱才能挖走他?呃,他们挖不走他。
现在,我不知道我们是否能够再造一次这一切,但我们已经拥有了它。而且,说实话,我们接手的时候,并不知道自己正在建造它。
你知道,我们当时有一家糟糕的纺织厂。我是说,这不是说查理和我坐下来——他那时候还没在伯克希尔,但他是我的合伙人,各方面都是,所以我们算是精神上的合伙人——我们没有坐下来制定出一个计划,说,好吧,我们把这个愚蠢的纺织生意再经营20年,然后终于不得不把它关掉,然后再做这做那,诸如此类。我们只是一步一步往前走。
但我们确实知道自己对经营一家上市公司的感受是什么样的。
而我们一直想做的一件事,就是我们希望找到与我们志同道合的人。我们真的不想要我在1952年在弗拉明戈酒店看到的那群人。我们想要信任我们的人。
而我们一开始,就我的情况而言,在那家合伙企业里,我们是从七个人开始的。查理也办了一家合伙企业,但道理是一样的。
我们没有去找机构投资者。我们也没有付钱给别人,让他们帮忙拉钱进来之类的。
我们跟人们坐下来谈。就我而言,我给他们递上一张小纸片,上面写明了规则。我想确保我们的想法是一致的。
我说,你不用去读那份合伙协议。我是说,我根本不可能占你的便宜。如果你觉得我会占你便宜,那我就不该出现在这儿——
但我确实希望你和我想法一致,用衡量我自己的同一把尺子来衡量我。
而那些人一直跟着我,直到今天他们——或者他们的子女,或者他们子女的子女——仍然是伯克希尔的股东。但他们是合伙人。
再要做到这一点会很难,但如果我要重新进入这个行业,我会尽力做同样的事情。我会尽力去找到信任我的人。
而我不想跟那些老是问,你上个月跟标普比表现怎么样啊,你知道,或者你的多空仓位是怎样的之类问题的人共事。
我卖了三年证券。我就是不想处在那种位置上,也就是说,人们可能会觉得我能做到一些我其实做不到的事情。所以,我最终找到了一种方法,找到了少数几个人——我是说,我并不是——其实,我是误打误撞碰上的——但少数几个信任我的人,他们就把钱交给了我。然后我们就从此过上了幸福的生活。
所以,新的管理层——以及他们之后的管理层,再之后的管理层——(咳嗽)——他们只不过是——抱歉——他们只不过是这种已经深深植入其中的文化的守护者。股东们相信它。在那里工作的人们相信它。
我们并不是说别的东西不能做得更好,或者类似的意思。我们只是说,这就是我们所拥有的。我们有董事会,有股权结构,还有这一切——以及我们的规模,基本上都足以抵御任何想要改变企业文化的企图。
而且你知道,去讨论“如果我们的董事们这样做、那样做”之类的假设,是很愚蠢的——
说到底,我们显然永远会遵守法律。我们是一家特拉华州公司,我们遵守特拉华州法律。
但这并不意味着我们必须照搬其他特拉华州公司的做法,照搬他们对特拉华州法规的理解方式。我们会遵守法律,然后我们会作为一群彼此信任的人来经营这家公司。我们很感激这份信任。查理?
24. “保持学习”
芒格:嗯,我记得你曾经拥有一家纺织厂——
巴菲特:哦,天哪。
芒格:——那家厂经营不下去——
巴菲特:我尽量不去想它。(笑)
芒格:——纺织其实就是凝固的电力,现代技术就是这么回事。
而田纳西河谷管理局(TVA)的电价比新英格兰地区低60%。那简直是一手绝望的牌,你能有那份见识把它扔掉。
巴菲特:是二十五年之后才扔的,是的。(笑)
芒格:不过,你至少没有继续往里面砸钱。
巴菲特:没错,是这样。
芒格:而且——不,认清现实,当情况真的很糟糕的时候,采取适当的行动,往往只需要最基本的常识。
你到底怎么可能在新英格兰经营一家纺织厂,而你的竞争对手却在支付低得多的电价?
巴菲特:我再告诉你另一个问题。我是说,我派去经营那家厂的人真的是个很好的人。他在各方面对我都百分之百诚实,他是个正派人,而且他懂纺织。
如果他是个混蛋,事情反倒会容易得多。我大概会对这件事有不同的想法。
但我们就那样磕磕绊绊地过了一段时间。后来,算我们走运,杰克·林沃尔特决定卖掉他的保险公司[国民赔偿保险公司],于是我们做成了这个、那个。
但我甚至还在新罕布什尔州买下了第二家纺织公司,我是说,我也不知道过了多少年——七八年之后。
我打算多讲一些关于愚蠢决策的事,也许午饭后我们再多讲一点。
我们做过的蠢事之多,简直难以置信。查理和我,还有桑迪·戈特斯曼——我们买下了那家百货公司,那是1966年的事。
而且,你知道,我们用的是自己的钱。我们当时到底为什么会觉得——
查理飞去巴尔的摩,我也飞过去——我是说,我们那时候真的很拼命工作。(笑)
而且,在那件事上,我们同样遇到了很棒的人。路易斯·科恩这个人再好不过了。
但那个行业里的每个人都有自己不同的参照点。你知道,他们都想扩大自己的公司规模。这也不能怪他们。而且,你知道,他们在筹划再开几家新店。每个部门——鞋类部门就说,这次我们会做得更好,诸如此类的话。
但整个想法本身就是疯狂的。我们在那儿待了一阵子,最终想明白了。然后——
芒格:我们掉头了。
巴菲特:是的。可我们当初到底为什么要去做这件事呢?(笑)
芒格:嗯,因为我们那时候蠢。
巴菲特:好吧,是的,嗯——(笑声)
这一点很重要,得认清楚。我们当时花6美元一股买下那只股票,如果那家百货公司经营成功了,它现在可能值30美元一股,我们会有——可它失败了,所以。
但我们做了别的事情,我们把它并入了伯克希尔,这个我们晚点再谈。
而且,你知道,我现在都不知道它现在是不是——每股15万美元左右了,从当初的6美元涨上来的。所以,如果它成功了,我们可能只赚几美元。而正因为它失败了,我们反倒每股赚了几十万美元。
但生活就是这样。(笑)
你只管继续往前走。然后——
芒格:而且要不断学习,这就是秘诀。
巴菲特:不断学习。
芒格:不断学习。
巴菲特:不断学习。
25. 让巴菲特恍然大悟、从此改变一切的那一刻
巴菲特:你可能会说,为什么这些人要花这么长时间才能学会?
而且——好吧,离午饭还有几分钟。我们应该——来谈谈这个问题吧。因为我确实带了些相关的东西来。
我11岁就开始买股票了。在那之前,我把图书馆里能找到的相关书籍都读遍了。我很喜欢这些。我爸爸也很喜欢——你知道,那是他的生意,我可以去他的办公室,在那儿读那些书。
我攒了钱,终于,到我11岁的时候,我能买一只股票了。我可以告诉你,那个时候——我9岁时去过纽约证券交易所。我爸爸带我们去纽约——每个孩子都被带去过一次纽约——他带我去的,我去了纽约证券交易所,我对它充满敬畏。
我可以给你们讲讲专家做市商制度是怎么运作的,还有零股交易安排,我还可以给你们讲金融史,讲这些东西。
后来我对技术分析产生了浓厚兴趣,画股票走势图,干了各种各样疯狂的事情。一小时又一小时地干。还存钱买别的股票,还尝试过做空。什么都试过了。
后来,在我19岁还是20岁的时候——我已经记不清具体是在哪儿了——我在某个地方拿到了一本书。
那不是学校的教科书,是在内布拉斯加州的林肯市。我——你知道,我翻开这本书,看到其中一段,它告诉我,我之前所做的一切都是错的。(笑)
我整个方法完全搞错了。
我以为我在做的事情,就是挑选会上涨的股票。
而就在那一段里,我看出这完全是愚蠢的。
我带来了一个很有意思的东西。放上来——我们管这张图叫什么来着?
哦,就是这个,对。
把[幻灯片]“错觉一”放上来。好了,就是这个。
你们看,现在看这张图,有些人会看到两张脸,有些人会看到一个花瓶,还有些人看了很久也只能看到两张脸。但大脑会在两种解读之间来回切换,这有个专门的名称——他们管它叫“歧义错觉”还是类似的说法。
还有一些别的说法,讲的是“顿悟时刻”——或者,在老的大力水手漫画里,温皮头上会冒出一个小气泡,然后灯泡就亮了。
会有这么一个瞬间,你突然看到了之前没看到的东西。这个过程花了我——就拿刚才那张图来说,我原本看到的错觉是两张脸。
翻到——我们看看标着“二”的那张。
如果你从一个角度看,它像一只兔子;如果换个角度看,它看起来又像一只鸭子。
你知道,大脑真是个很奇妙的地方。
我记得人们把这个叫作“统觉团”,就是你脑子里同时有各种各样的东西在活动。它们存在好多年,就那么搁在那儿,然后就被遗忘了(笑)。
然后突然之间,你看到的东西跟之前不一样了。
而对于股票——我当时对股票兴趣极大,智商也还过得去,一直在阅读和思考。对我来说,能从中赚点钱很重要,我有着世界上所有的动力。可就是花了这么久。后来我读了一章——其实是一段——是《聪明的投资者》第8章里的,我记得是这样,它告诉我,我原来看到的不是鸭子,而是——现在变成了兔子——不管怎么说吧。
不管你把它叫作“灯泡亮了”,还是叫作“真相大白的一刻”——不管怎么称呼——这件事就发生在林肯市。我是说,它改变了我的一生。
要是我没读那本书,真不知道我还会继续研究头肩形态、200日均线、零股比率这些东西多久,还有成千上万别的玩意儿。我很喜欢那类东西,只不过我研究的方向完全错了。
这种事在我身上发生过——我相信查理身上也发生过。人一辈子会遇上这么几次。突然之间,你看清了某件重要的事,然后想,我到底为什么当初没看出来?也许是一周前,也许是一年前,也许是五年前。
也许是学会怎么和人相处,你知道。我是说,比如到底是善良待人更好,还是不必如此,诸如此类。
或者——我是说,就是些——学会怎样——如果你想让全世界都爱你,你该怎么做,诸如此类。
你一看到就明白了,可之前整整十年你都没看出来。
我不知道查理对此有没有什么想法,但在做生意上,这种情况也出现过几次——我盯着一家公司看了十年。然后突然之间,脑子里的一切都重新排列组合了,你会说,唉,我五年前怎么就没看出来呢?
但这种事显然在我身上发生过好几次——在座各位也都经历过——只是发生在生活的不同领域罢了。
然后你会想,我当初怎么会这么蠢?
查理——他做律师的时候,有个合伙人叫罗伊·托尔斯。每个聪明人一旦惹上麻烦——通常是男的,通常是因为女人——他们会走进办公室,垂头丧气的。他们会说,当时看起来是个好主意,你知道。我是说——(笑声)
而在很多情况下,他们的人生就这么分崩离析了。
所以,那个统觉团就那么以某种方式待在你脑子里,时不时地会产生一些洞见。
其实,比起让你产生赚钱方面的洞见,让你对自己的行为产生洞见,效果更好。
有些人一辈子都想不明白。他们纳闷,为什么自己的孩子恨他们,或者为什么这世上没人在乎他们是死是活。
事实上,那些人巴不得他们死,因为一直在讨好他们,图的是他们的艺术收藏,或者别的什么东西。这真是——
查理会说,你只需要先把自己的讣告写出来,然后反过来推导人生该怎么过。
这倒不是个疯狂的主意,不过,查理,我说不好。你对统觉团了解多少?就是(笑)你知道,那种视觉错觉。
芒格:这个嘛,我知道大脑就是这么运作的。也很容易出错。诀窍的一部分,就在于要让自己能纠正自己的错误。我们在这方面做了不少。
巴菲特:是啊。
芒格:常常改正得太晚了。
巴菲特:是的。我们在纠正错误上做得,比在那些不错的——还算合理的好主意上,做得更好。
26. Robinhood的“分崩离析”是老天爷的报应
芒格:一个好主意,太容易被玩过头了。
现在的情况就是这样。很多好主意都被严重地玩过头了。
巴菲特:那你倒是给我说一个没被玩过头的,不过晚点再说,等这些人都不在听的时候。(笑)
它——我是说,问题就在于——
芒格:但看看Robinhood从高点跌到低点发生了什么。
这种事情会发生,不是很明显吗?
巴菲特:再说一遍?什么该——
芒格:Robinhood。记得吧,它推出后上市了,然后——
巴菲特:哦。
芒格:——它把所有人都引诱进了这种短线赌博,收取高额佣金,还有隐藏的回扣,诸如此类。真让人恶心。
巴菲特:是啊。你去年就这么说过,他们因此对你很生气,卖掉了一大批自己的股票,把钱拿到手了,然后——
芒格:是啊,但现在它正在土崩瓦解。老天爷开始主持公道了。
巴菲特:我喜欢伟大——不,但他们从中赚了不少钱。我是说,据我记得,他们当时可是大卖家。
芒格:那也许是——
巴菲特:是啊。
芒格:——但多少也算是有了点公道。
巴菲特:嗯,这一点我倒是同意。(掌声)
不过,四处树敌是不是个好主意,那——那是另一个问题了,而我们确实这么干。
批评别人到底明不明智?
芒格:大概不明智,但我忍不住。
巴菲特:(笑)(掌声)
嗯——这位是我认识的最聪明的人,他都98岁了还没想明白这个道理,所以——(笑声)
算了吧,好好享受就是了。
好了,说到这儿我们该去吃午饭了,争取一点钟回来的时候变得更聪明一点。
下午场 - 2022年会议
1. 吉米·巴菲特双体游艇卖得很快
巴菲特:好,我们继续开会吧。
我记得目前已经卖出了15艘[吉米·巴菲特派对双体游艇],这是刚才——刚才在外面有人告诉我的——所以想买要趁早,卖完就没了。
第一艘大概还要一年才能交付。但订购的人能拿到10%的折扣,不管这意味着什么。我自己也订了一艘。而且我们——那边房间里的情况也不错。
上半场我们只回答了七个问题,创下了新低。所以下半场我们会尽量加快节奏。
我实在想不出为什么会这么慢。我是说,是谁——是谁说了那么多话?(笑声)好了。
2. 巴菲特:我已经「明显收敛了」在表达政治观点方面的做法
巴菲特:四号台。
杰夫·武沃洛伊:你好,沃伦和查理。我是杰夫·武沃洛伊(音译),来自旧金山的股东。
近年来,美国企业在政治领域扮演了更加积极的角色。无论是公开反对某些法案,还是推动各种社会事业,往往都是应股东或员工团体的要求。
虽然这些运动的目标可能值得称道,但它们也有可能疏远相当一部分客户群和员工群体。首席执行官应该如何决定在哪些议题上表态,或者公司是否应该介入政治领域?谢谢。
巴菲特:这是个很棒的问题,显然我也不得不为此想了很多。
我曾经说过:「我担任伯克希尔CEO时,并没有把我的公民身份放进盲信托里。」但我也明白了——就任何议题发表意见,你能持久激怒的人,远比你能暂时取悦的人要多得多。
在某些议题上,他们会把气撒在我们的公司身上,这就意味着我们雇用的员工中,有些人最终会被我们裁掉。这也意味着股东会受损。那么我是不是真的认为,就每一个可能让人极度不满的议题发表看法,重要到值得让他们付出这样的代价?
我得出的结论是:不值得。我究竟为什么要伤害那边房间里、为伯克希尔做各种事情的那些人?我为什么要因为自己说了某句话,而让全国20%的人立刻表示反对,从而伤害到你们?有时候他们会因此非常不满,甚至会想办法找地方发泄。
由于他们没法直接冲我大喊大叫,他们可能会发起针对我们公司之类的运动。所以我认为,就我自己而言,我不会到处发表立场,让报道不是说「沃伦·巴菲特说」,而是说「伯克希尔·哈撒韦」,或者「伯克希尔·哈撒韦的沃伦·巴菲特」。
我会被认出来。而我不想让你们的生活——我已经下定决心不会那样做了。如果我真想那么做,我应该辞职。如果我认为作为公民发声重要到那种程度,我宁愿放弃我最热爱的东西,那就是这份工作。(笑)
我不想那样做。所以,我已经明显收敛了,我不想说出任何最终会被归到伯克希尔头上的话,让别人来承担我发言的后果。
这就是我的立场。我可以告诉你,在大多数公司,或者说很多公司——这么说不太公平。但在非常多的公司里,你知道的,CEO们不得不考虑董事会对他们说了什么,而这些公司特意选出了代表不同群体利益的董事会成员,因为这在社会上是被接受的做法,有时候这种代表性还相当强烈。
如果他们认为要照顾这个群体、那个群体、又一个群体的利益相关者,他们就会被董事会施压去表态。而这正是我们不打算涉足的领域。
查理,你对此怎么看?
芒格:嗯,比你还甚,我说话得格外小心。(笑声)
现在——(笑声)
男声:是啊。这——(掌声)
沃伦·巴菲特:我俩的区别在于,我总是忍不住要多说几句。(笑)我在报纸上一次又一次地看到这样的标题:「巴菲特买了这个那个」。可我并没有买这个那个。是伯克希尔·哈撒韦买的,而这可能是伯克希尔另外两个人干的活。
写文章的人根本不知道那到底是不是我授意的,甚至不知道我是不是听说过这件事。但标题上写「巴菲特买入这个」,会比写「伯克希尔·哈撒韦,而我们也不知道是他手下的人干的还是他自己干的」更能吸引人。
这个标题就是为了把读者吸引进这篇报道而设计的。所以——
这种混乱糟糕透了。最简单的办法就是干脆闭嘴,不要招来一大堆本来就不该有的、让人费解的提问。
但我很高兴你问了这个问题。这是个好问题。而且我对这个问题的思考,可能比我思考某只股票是不是便宜想得还多。
3. 伯克希尔不是用来搞政治的「武器」
沃伦·巴菲特:好,接下来我们——嗯,我看看。刚才是第四台。我们再回到贝姬这边。
贝姬·奎克:说到这个,我们来看大卫·卡斯(David Cass)的一个问题。
他写道:「拜登总统2023财年的预算案提议对身家至少1亿美元的家庭未实现的资本利得征收20%的最低税。您对这个问题怎么看?」
如果您不想回答,也许查理愿意回答。(笑)
沃伦·巴菲特:嗯,我们等着瞧吧。(笑)说实话,我们俩都得承认,这件事会影响到我们自己。如果门槛是1亿美元,我们俩都会受影响。所以我们的看法是——我没有看法。查理?我没有什么想要被人引用的看法——
查理·芒格:我一般不掺和这类所得税的事情。我的原则是,他们通过什么税法我就交什么税,我不想去为税收问题游说。
沃伦·巴菲特:对。(掌声)我还想补充一点。游说这件事真的很让人反感。我曾经为一位候选人做过一次游说,结果我发现自己和一群烟草公司的说客待在同一个房间里。他们根本不在乎内布拉斯加州,也不在乎——他们手里什么都没有。他们出现在那儿,就是因为要递上一笔捐款,而我不过是个方便利用的陪衬。说实话,那种感觉,基本上让人恶心想吐。
另一方面,我们涉足铁路、能源、保险这些行业,而这些行业都受到广泛的监管。我也不想成为唯一一个不加入铁路行业协会的铁路公司,或者唯一一个不加入保险行业协会的保险公司。
所以,别人完全可以合理地认为我们是在搭便车。所以我一般告诉各位经理人:「不要拿伯克希尔的钱去支持你喜欢的候选人。不要向供应商施压去——」伯克希尔不是拿来当武器用的——虽然公司里确实有些人曾这么用过。但不要用它去从别人那里逼出钱来,只因为你喜欢谁,或者你太太上过哪所学校,或者别的什么理由。当然,这种事还是会发生一些。
但我不会跟我们的人说不准加入任何行业协会。查理写过史上最出色的信之一,如果你去搜索一下,输入我记得是1989年,芒格,储贷(savings and loan)之类的关键词。我们当时退出了美国储蓄贷款联盟,我记得是这个名字。
我们警告过他们。我们说:「我们实在受不了你们对这个国家做的事。」当一群非常好的人聚在一起,却认定为了他们储贷机构的利益应该这样做或那样做的时候,问题就出现了。
我们警告了他们,最后查理写了一封信,就像我说的,网上能搜到。这应该是——肯定是伯克希尔历史上最令人自豪的信件之一。他就是说:「我们再也受不了了,我们退出。」
但那是件非常难的事。那样活着很不好受,整天到处批评(笑)和你共事的人、你的邻居。他们都是完全正派的人,只不过他们所经营的机构在做一些让他们自己都感到很不齿的事。
我们也支持我们旗下的一些能源子公司加入行业协会。而且,我不希望看到有人是出于个人原因这么做。那样的话,他们就麻烦了。但我不会说他们不能这么做,因为我不想在出事的时候束缚住他们的手脚——本质上,无论是行业内的竞争对手,还是整个行业(听不清),我们不会独自站出来说:「我们道德上更高尚,所以你们花钱,我们不花。」这就是我的结论。查理?
查理·芒格:我没什么可补充的。
沃伦·巴菲特:好。我没什么可补充的时候从来不会觉得不自在,可他好像老是卡在这句话上。(笑)
总之。贝姬,这个问题是你提的吗?
贝姬·奎克:是的。
沃伦·巴菲特:好,行。
4. 懂得不止一门学科会有帮助
沃伦·巴菲特:那么第五台。
宋瑶:哦,谢谢,沃伦和查理。我叫宋瑶,来自中国,目前在芝加哥大学读书。我非常敬佩你们二位,尤其是查理。您从我小时候起就是我的偶像。
我的问题也是想问查理的。我的问题是:在做投资决策和为人处世时,要如何实践多学科思维框架?也就是说,怎样才能让它更具可操作性?谢谢。
沃伦·巴菲特:查理?(掌声)
查理·芒格:嗯,显然,懂得不止一门学科对你是有帮助的。有句老话说,手里只有一把锤子的人,看什么都像钉子。如果你对各个学科都没有一定的掌握,你就可能做出错误的决定。
这就是我一直以来所说的全部内容。但当你闯入别人的地盘,对他们说「我是多学科的,你是专家,可我比你更懂」的时候,你会把人惹得极其恼火。他们会因此恨你。这一点我可以证明。我干过好几次这种事。(笑)
沃伦·巴菲特:而且,你知道,在中国——嗯,在某种程度上,他们的文化在一定程度上是敬重年长者的。所以在这方面查理比我占便宜。(笑)
关于中国,我甚至都不打算跟他较量。
论年纪我更是追不上他。好了。
不过我还是打算努力一下。
我们看看。接下来该贝姬了。
5. 通货膨胀「几乎骗光了所有人」
贝姬·奎克:这个问题来自菲利普·金(Phillip King)。他写道:「70年代您写过一篇文章,题为《通货膨胀如何欺骗股票投资者》。您在文中说,股票无法跟上通胀的步伐,因为公司无法提高它们的净资产收益率。您认为现在情况依然如此吗?
是的。当然,债券也一样会欺骗股票投资者。(笑)我该说,通货膨胀同样也欺骗债券投资者。它还欺骗那些把现金藏在床垫底下的人。它几乎骗光了所有人。问题在于,如果你有一门生意根本不需要投入资本,那么,就算美元贬值90%,也就是说东西的价格涨到原来的十倍。
如果这门生意不需要任何资本,你就可以把价格提高十倍,你的相对地位也就保住了。但大多数生意都需要一定的资本。就拿我们的公用事业业务来说吧——假设从现在起若干年后,美元的价值只剩十分之一,那我们基本上就得投入十倍的资本。我们确实能就此获得回报,但我们本质上是被迫投入资本,才勉强维持在原地不动。
我写过一篇与此相关的文章,我给大家讲一个很有名的故事,你们都会感同身受的。当时我给《财富》杂志写那篇文章,写完的时候大概有7000字。《财富》不喜欢发表7000字的文章,他们就让我的朋友卡罗尔·卢米斯(Carol Loomis)来跟我解释这件事,因为他们知道,比起别人,我更愿意听她的话。
但我这个人固执又大男子主义,我说:「每个字都很珍贵」,他们要么原样发表,要么就别发了。于是他们派了一位编辑,一个很好的人,飞到了奥马哈。这个人跟我解释说,用那么多字确实不合适。我说:「好吧,没问题,但如果你们不这么发,我就拿去别的地方发表。」我这样的做法真的很讨人厌。
后来这件事开始让我有点不安,于是我把稿子寄给了我的朋友梅格·格林菲尔德(Meg Greenfield)。梅格是《华盛顿邮报》一位非常、非常、非常出色的编辑,我们是非常非常要好的朋友。一个很棒的女性。梅格对大多数作者都严厉得像钉子一样,但对我倒是挺客气的。她不想真的把我伤得太重。所以我说:「梅格,你觉得怎么样?」她说:「沃伦」,她说,「你不必在这篇文章里把你知道的一切都说出来。」(笑)
这话说到了点子上。于是我把那篇文章写得短了一些,说的差不多还是同样的内容。你知道吗?如果你真的能在未来100年里拥有一个完全稳定的货币计量单位,那对企业和整体投资者来说都会更好。
那么你要告诉他们什么呢?他们会想办法,你知道的,看看风往哪边吹,弄清楚自己该跟别人说什么。然后他们出去告诉大家,接下来如果你是个正常人,你说过“我们每股要赚3.59美元”,那你就得想办法凑到3.59美元。而且得这样维持相当长一段时间。
而且,你知道,你可以有各种各样的流程,但如果你有一种撒谎的文化,那些流程真的——它们就都失效了。查理和我在几乎每次我们进入一家公司董事会时都见过这种情况。查理,跟他们讲讲?(笑)
芒格:嗯,我认为伯克希尔的文化在我们离开很久以后还会延续下去。我认为它应该如此,我认为它会相当兴旺。而美国企业界的其他部分则大不相同,而且我觉得每过一个十年都变得更不一样。
而且情况变得非常古怪。很快他们就会把所有股东大会都改成线上举行,股东们甚至都不会来了。真的是变得非常古怪。指数基金变得越来越重要,比投票还重要。这就像生活中的其他一切一样。它会变,而且不总是朝你喜欢的方向变。
巴菲特:结果就是这会影响到挑选不同的CEO以及各种各样的事情。我是说,你不会去任命一个新的接班CEO,让他上任后说以前做的一切,你知道,多多少少是有点欺诈性的。你知道吗?我是说,如果我们需要在季度结束后再补记一笔销售,如果我们需要调整准备金——一旦你开始撒谎,就全完了。
而我确实不知道有什么办法可以绕开这一点,除了尽一切办法不去——如果你在最高层树立了错误的榜样,你就有大麻烦了。你知道吗?我们从来没有让任何人去改动一个数字。我们以后也永远不会。而且如果他们一直在改数字的话,你知道,我们早就麻烦缠身了,因为他们知道,我也会知道,下一个人也会知道。而且情况只会每况愈下。
而我们确实一次又一次地看到这种情况。董事会运作的方式,你知道,必须是以流程为导向的。我理解特拉华州在起草一部让法官在审视问题时必须面对的法规时所遇到的难题,但对流程的强调,能对一个组织产生多么惊人的影响,这实在是非同寻常,因为他们会觉得只要是被允许的,他们就什么都能做。
而且,你知道,最终地基就会崩塌。
7. 巴菲特买入动视暴雪,作为并购套利操作
巴菲特:好。哦,我应该在这里发布一点新闻,你们都来了,可能会看到,也可能看不到这一点,但很有可能——我们买的其中一样东西,我买的其中一样东西,是几个月前由另一位经理出于另一个目的买入的。
他们买了大约1500万股动视暴雪的股票。我知道这家公司,只是在月度报告里看到过。但后来在1月份,我记不清是17号还是18号,差不多那时候,微软宣布要以每股95美元收购动视暴雪。
好,他们一宣布这个消息,那一刻起动视暴雪就变成了另一种性质的证券。它变成了查理和我过去常说的——嗯,其实50年前大家都这么说——的东西。我们过去把它们叫做“workouts”或类似的说法。而它们后来就被称为套利(arbitrage)。
嗯,它们其实并不是真正意义上的套利,但它们是这样一种证券——在这个案例中是普通股——它的价值不取决于市场价格的走势,而取决于某个特定的公司事件是否会发生。一个已经宣布的公司事件是否会发生。好,比如说微软想要收购动视暴雪——嗯,他们说的是每股95美元。
而他们手上有钱,而且很明显,并购,尤其是大型并购,科技公司,各种各样的因素,在整体舆论层面都会遇到各种各样的问题。所以你不知道司法部会怎么做,你也不知道欧盟会怎么做,诸如此类的事情。
但就在那一刻,它变成了一种不同性质的证券。而查理和我,50年前,我们过去经常做这类事情。高盛的古斯·利维(Gus Levy)也做过这个。我们甚至还回想起有一次,是关于不列颠哥伦比亚电力公司(British Columbia Power)的,是吧,查理?
而不管他们招来的股东群体是变好还是变坏,我是说,这在我们看来根本就是疯了。我们不希望现在的股东变成别的什么人(笑)。而且,你知道,我们又不打算摆脱指数基金,所以我们只能摆脱你这样的人,可我们并不想摆脱你这样的人。(笑)
我实在不明白,如果你有一片社区,地块大小刚好能容纳十户邻居,而且他们个个都是好邻居,那你为什么还要跑出去,对街上来来往往的一大帮人说,“你怎么不去买我隔壁那家的房子?”
你知道,(笑)这挺怪的,但确实有一大堆人靠干这个吃饭,而且他们从来不真正质疑这件事。我倒想问问那些每个月都搞分析师发布会之类活动的公司,“你们现在这些股东里,到底想摆脱哪一个?”
我是说,基本上——因为我希望你们到年底流通股数不会比现在还多。那我是不是应该,你知道,让开路,(笑)好让另一只琢磨着你股票下周会怎么走的基金来取代我?这真是个非常、非常、非常古怪的局面。
当然,真正疯狂的是这样一个已经形成的流程:跟所谓的分析师群体谈话,也就是金融界的“大祭司”,你知道,有些公司甚至一个月不止做一次。设想一下,如果你在那家公司上班,你去那家公司工作,每个月人们都在重复这些关于公司的话,“我们每位客户的服务数得从6.2提到7才行”之类的。
他们月复一月地这么说,于是这就变成了一套教义问答。CEO这么说,或者他/她的代表这么说,那你下个月怎么好意思出来说,“顺便说一句,我们之前其实说错了,这才是我们该做的事”?
你不会那么说。而且,当前任CEO已经说过“达成盈利目标是头等大事”之后,新来的CEO就会面临一个可怕的难题。要知道,他/她此前多半是靠时不时地作假,才达成了那些目标。
这个人把接力棒交给你,难道你会站出来说,“呃,我们其实一直在作假,而且这对公司的发展其实是适得其反的,与其编造一些数字,不如把实际结果如实告诉大家,不要再做盈利预测”?
而且会计部门,你知道,他们没法这么做。这不符合人性,再说了,你也当不上继任者。可你就是没法进去说,“我们一直在延续这些神话,说我们总能实现8%的增长,或者能做到这个那个,或者最重要的是这个。”
如果你每个月都在向大家宣扬“这就是我们所秉持的”,你就没法突然进去把这套推翻,而且还得不断被问到新问题,把这个信息继续传递给大众、传递给分析师们。这完全是一种破坏性的做法。
我是说,你知道,在公认会计准则之内,我可以在数字上玩不少花招。我们在伯克希尔干过不少蠢事。但我们从来没跟任何人说过,数字必须是这样或那样,或者要去改动什么。我是说,一旦你开了这个头,那就全完了。
你没法收手。这就像从收银机里拿走5美元。你知道,第一次拿走那五块钱的时候,你会说,“好吧,我会放回去的。”然后拿了几次之后,你就再也停不下来了。事实上,哪怕只拿一次,你大概率也停不下来了。
但如果某件事注定是破坏性的,那正确的做法就是压根别开这个头。而预测盈利,我想不出还有什么比这更具破坏性的事了。我这儿有36万名员工,他们知道我有没有在撒谎。他们中很多人都知道。
他们知道自己上报的数字,结果却被改掉了?你知道,你这是在传递什么信息?我们在伯克希尔内部就有一个鲜明的例子。而且,你知道,一旦你开始撒谎,你就摊上大麻烦了。就这么简单。
而且,如果你开始对团队说,你的工作——你负责股东关系——你的工作就是每天出去跟所有人说,我们的股票是成千上万种选择里最好的那一个。那可是疯了。
那他们该怎么跟人说?他们只能,你知道,去看看风往哪边吹,琢磨该跟人说什么。然后他们出去这么说了,如果你是普通人,你说了“我们每股要赚3.59美元”,那你就会想办法凑到3.59美元。而且能凑上好一阵子。
而且,你知道,你可以建立所有这些流程,但如果你有一种撒谎的文化,那些流程真的——它们就会形同虚设。查理和我都见过这种情况,我想,几乎每次我们进董事会都会遇到。查理,跟大家讲讲?(笑)
芒格:嗯,我觉得伯克希尔的文化在我们不在之后还会延续很长时间。我认为它也应该延续下去,而且我觉得它会发展得相当不错。美国企业界其他部分则大不相同,而且我觉得每过一个十年,差异会越来越大。
而且情况正变得非常古怪。用不了多久,他们就会把所有的股东大会都搬到线上,股东们甚至都不会露面了。这真是变得越来越古怪。指数基金相较于投票的重要性也变得越来越大。这就像生活中的其他一切一样,会变化,而且未必会往你喜欢的方向变。
巴菲特:而这最终会影响到挑选不同的CEO之类的种种事情。我是说,你不会去任命一位继任CEO,让他一上来就说,之前所做的一切,你知道,多多少少都是造假的。你懂吗?我是说,如果我们非要在季度结束后再补记一笔销售,如果我们非要去调整准备金,那么一旦你开始撒谎,就全完了。
而且我实在不知道有什么办法能绕开这一点,唯一能做的就是想尽一切办法不去——如果你在最高层树立了错误的榜样,你就有大麻烦了。你知道吗?我们从来没让任何人去改动数字。以后也永远不会。而如果他们一直在改数字,你知道,我们早就摊上各种麻烦了,因为他们知道,我也知道,下一个人也会知道。而且情况只会越来越糟。
我们确实一次又一次地见识过这种情况。董事会运作的方式,你知道,必须是以流程为导向的。我理解特拉华州在起草一部让法官在审视问题时有据可依的法规时所面临的难处,但一个组织如果过分强调流程,会发生什么,实在是非同寻常,因为人们会觉得,只要流程允许,什么事都能做。
而且,你知道,到最后,根基就会崩塌。
7. 巴菲特买入动视暴雪,作为并购套利操作
巴菲特:好。哦,我这里得公布点新闻,所以你们都来了,也许会看到、也许看不到这一点,但很有可能——我们买的东西里,有一笔,我买的一笔,最初是几个月前由另一位经理出于不同目的买入的。
他们买了大约1500万股动视暴雪。我是知道这家公司的,只是每个月看看报表里提到它。但后来在1月份,我记不清是17号还是18号左右,微软宣布要以每股95美元收购动视暴雪。
好了,他们一宣布这个消息,动视暴雪这只股票在那一刻就变成了另一类证券。它变成了查理和我过去常说的——嗯,其实50年前大家都这么叫——我们管它叫“清算股”之类的。它们被称为套利股。
其实它们并不算真正的套利,但这类证券——在这个案子里是普通股——它们的价值不取决于市场价格的走势,而取决于某个特定的公司事件会不会发生。一个已宣布的公司事件会不会发生。好,比如说,微软想收购动视暴雪——嗯,他们说的是每股95美元。
而且他们有钱,显然并购,尤其是大型并购,科技公司之类的,在整体舆论层面上会遇到各种各样的麻烦。所以你不知道司法部会怎么做,也不知道欧盟会怎么做,诸如此类。
但在那一刻,它就变成了另一种证券。查理和我,50年前,就经常干这类事情。高盛的格斯·利维也做这个。而且我们甚至还回想起有一次,是不列颠哥伦比亚电力公司的事,是不是,查理?
芒格:是的。我们确实这么干过。
巴菲特:是的。(笑)当时有个叫贝内特的人在那儿,我们正试图搞清楚电力业务的某项收购。我是说我们花了很多时间去分析已宣布的交易能够完成的概率,我们把这类操作叫做套利交易(workouts)。现在这个说法变成了arb(套利)。而且最近这些年,这类操作总体上做得不算太好。
不过,我时不时还是会看到这个领域里我想做的机会。但很少,因为它们必须规模够大。利润是有限的。你知道,如果他们说你能拿到95美元,你就不会拿到96美元,而如果交易黄了,你手里可能就是一只跌到40美元左右的股票。
但我们五六年前在拜耳收购孟山都的时候做过这种操作,而且我们运气很好,因为那后来被证明是拜耳的一笔糟糕收购,但交易还是完成了,因为拜耳有钱,他们把这笔交易做完了,尽管孟山都带来了一个问题,没有人真正清楚这问题的严重程度到底有多大。我们在IBM收购Red Hat的时候也做了同样的操作。
所以不管怎么说,在一月十几号,17号、18号还是19号,微软宣布了这笔交易。而这只股票原本在60美元——我看看。我这儿可能有张幻灯片,我会找找看。但不管怎样,这只原本在60多美元的股票,涨到了81美元或82美元左右。在我看来,这个价差在最初几天里显得不够大。后来股价又稍微回落了一些。
所以总之,我们现在持有大约9.5%的动视暴雪股份。如果我们持股超过10%,我们就要提交一份报告。所以为了不让新闻界的人觉得这里没有新闻,我可以告诉大家,截至昨天,我们大约持有9.5%。如果我们超过10%,就会向证券交易委员会提交一份表格,等等。
但这是我本人的买入,不是几个月前买入的那位经理做的。(打个响指)如果这笔交易能完成,我们能赚点钱;如果交易没能完成,那就说不好会发生什么了。但我只是想确保,如果我们真的要提交那份报告,大家能非常清楚地理解这一点,因为过去在这方面出现过一些非常混乱的报道。
我们想非常明确地说明,在这个具体案例里,这是沃伦·巴菲特本人的决定,他并不知道司法部会怎么做。(笑)他也不知道欧盟会怎么做。他从来没有跟微软的任何人谈过这件事。
我想他只是读了一份文件。他做出了自己的判断。而这判断是可能改变的。有一次,我记得我们甚至卖掉过一些股份,就在我觉得股价比它应有水平稍高一点的时候。事实证明那些卖出并不是糟糕的决定。所以我只是想给大家制造一点新闻。
而且,如果可能的话,我想提前堵住那些过去出现过的不实报道,那些报道后来又被其他媒体转载,而更正却从来没人转载。所有的更正报道加起来,也抵不过一篇不实报道造成的影响。而且他们甚至向我道了歉。记者和编辑都给我发了一份亲笔道歉信。他们没料到自己会犯这样的错误。
但当其他媒体转载这条报道的时候,他们没有费心去转载更正。结果数以百万计的人得到了错误信息,而且很可能——等这消息传开的时候,字面意义上是这样。而这一次,我打算通过现在就把事实原原本本告诉大家,来提前堵住这种情况(笑)。
我们要看看是否会超过10%。不过,你知道,很可能就算它涨了几美元——这仍然是一笔95美元的交易。我们仍然不知道司法部会怎么做。我们不知道欧盟会怎么做。我们不知道另外三十个司法辖区会怎么做。我们唯一确定的一件事是,微软有这笔钱。所以那一项风险算是排除了。那么,查理,你有什么新闻要爆吗?(笑)
芒格:没有。
巴菲特:是的。(笑声)顺便说一句,我不会就此事跟查理商量。我是说,你知道,他知道我偶尔会看中一笔套利交易然后就去做了。而且,你知道,50年前我们是一起做这种事的,他现在的大致想法是,“沃伦怎么还在摆弄这种东西。”
但这就像那匹老消防马,偶尔看起来胜算是站在我们这边的。不过我们绝对有可能在那家公司上亏钱,而且,你知道,如果交易黄了,可能会亏相当大的一笔钱,具体要看情况怎么发展。
而且会有很多人希望这笔交易黄掉。但微软不希望它黄掉,所以我们只能看看接下来会怎样。
8. 指数基金可能对公司治理拥有了过大的影响力
巴菲特:好。贝姬?
贝姬·奎克:你知道,查理刚才顺带提到了指数基金,那我们就来看看马特·菲格尔提的这个问题。他的问题跟通过指数基金和ETF进行被动投资的增长有关。他说:“被动投资工具目前控制着美国股票市场50%以上的份额。”
贝姬·奎克:“这些被动投资工具的实际持有人自己决定被动投资对他们来说最合适,但正因为如此,被动投资者反而让大型指数基金成了市场上最大的积极参与者(activists)。这些被动型基金管理人现在对公司治理享有巨大的、我认为是不应有的影响力。沃伦或查理是否认为,制定一项规则,禁止被动投资工具的管理人代表其被动投资客户对所持股份进行投票,会有什么益处或道理?”
芒格:好,这个我来回答。我认为这位提问者说得对。我认为这件事已经失控了,而且是在起反作用。我不认为让三家被动投资机构、几个来自哈佛的聪明年轻人之类的人,来告诉各家公司应该如何进行恰当的治理,这对国家是件好事。这不是一个好的发展方向。(掌声)而且我认为,如果指数化投资的比例达到90%,那它根本就运转不好了。但目前来看,它运转得还不错。
巴菲特:是的。好吧,还有一点你可以放心,那就是如果情况看起来真的要——如果公众舆论真的转向认为,让三个人来决定美国企业界每一家公司的命运是个好主意的话,这三个人——他们是不会互相勾结、串通做什么的。
这倒不是说他们是坏人,一点也不是。我是说,他们只是在做你我处于他们那个位置也会做的事。他们会盘算,他们其实并不太在乎投票这件事。我们真正在乎的是保住(笑)大量的管理资产。所以我们会想办法,最终让做法反映出公众舆论,这样政客们就不会生我们的气了。而我们唯一真正的威胁,实际上就是政客对我们发火,某种程度上还有监管者。所以我们会提前把这个问题解决掉。
而且我可以相当有把握地预测,如果美国公众不喜欢由三个人来控制一切这个想法的话,这三个人——连同他们的机构等等,但这三家,他们真正想做的是把规模做得更大。(笑)
如果他们不想把规模做大,他们也不会走到今天这个位置。这种事不是偶然发生的。这并不是说做大规模是他们唯一想要的东西。他们也希望自己的投资人获得好的投资回报,等等。但他们绝对不会去执行一项会引发强烈反弹、导致自己规模大幅缩水的政策。
他们能想明白自己的利益所在。而恰好在这件事上,这样做正好能实现正确的结果,也就是他们不会去控制美国,而是会做对他们自己有利的事。他们要做的,就是在政治上说得过去的事。
真正能把这桩对他们来说非常划算的好事搅黄的,唯一的可能就是国会修改规则。而且,你知道,那些规则——1940年的《投资公司法》确实改变了人们的行为方式,在很长一段时间里,它以很大的力度左右着这个行业。
任何跟联邦政府对着干的人都会输。你知道吗?如果你说要去做那种事情——他们根本没必要那么做。他们只需要说,“好吧,我们放弃投票权,”或者“我们会像大多数人一样投票。”
当然了,如果你像其他大多数人那样投票,那么如果指数基金占了全国持股的90%,别人只要买入3%或4%的股份,就可能借此拿下一家公司的控制权,因为你会自动让那些基金跟着你手里那一小部分股份走。
你会看到事情一步步展开的。我是说这是个大问题,但并不是个不寻常的问题。
9. 伯克希尔与其能源子公司的关系
巴菲特:好。7号台。
埃里克·埃尔塔:好的。我叫埃里克·埃尔塔,住在新墨西哥州阿尔伯克基。首先我想说,非常感谢你们二位一辈子来慷慨地与我们所有人分享的知识。你们为推动我们这个物种向前发展做出了巨大贡献。而且,你们教会了在场的所有人,以及场外许许多多、许许多多的人,如何更理性地行事,如何用更多的爱去对待彼此,如何过上更充实的生活。为此,我想真诚地说一声谢谢。(掌声)
巴菲特:谢谢。
芒格:嗯哼(表示肯定)。
埃里克·埃尔塔:至于我的问题,我想问一下伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司,以及在伯克希尔并不持有该公司100%股权的情况下,那里演变出的这种独特结构。
问题的第一部分与格雷格的持股比例,以及由此带来的、他与伯克希尔整体利益之间的激励一致性有关。
埃里克·埃尔塔:那么,有一位名叫查理的智者,在1995年对哈佛的一次演讲中,教导我们激励机制对人类行为有多么重要。我保守估计,格雷格目前在BHE(伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源)的持股价值超过5亿美元。我很好奇,你们能否分享一下,是否有计划把伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源的股权转换成伯克希尔的股票?如果没有这样的计划,能否请你解释一下,为什么我们不该对格雷格未来的激励结构感到担忧?
埃里克·埃尔塔:第二部分是关于该实体的杠杆问题。你一直说,鉴于BHE的盈利能力,它的杠杆水平是恰当的。话虽如此,相对于目前的盈利而言,这仍然是一笔非常非常庞大的债务数字,尤其是考虑到我们在伯克希尔这边已经习惯的那种做法。我很好奇,如果伯克希尔持有伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源100%的股权,你们是否还会以同样的杠杆水平来经营这家公司?
巴菲特:好,谢谢。第二部分是最容易回答的,我来回答这个。然后我把第一部分丢给查理。(笑声)伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司,由于它经营的是受监管的公用事业,实际上是被要求这样做的——它基本上是从受监管的公用事业起步的,而且至今仍以此为主。我们也有兴趣收购更多受监管的公用事业公司。
不同的州、不同的监管机构会以不同方式要求它持有大量债务,因为,就拿爱荷华州,或者随便哪个州来说,监管机构都会说,你借债的钱比募集股权的钱便宜,而这从历史上看,基本上几乎一直都是事实。
他们说,既然我们要给你一个净资产收益率——我们就随便举个数字。假设他们允许我们获得9%的净资产收益率,而我们能以3%的利率借到大量资金,他们就会说,如果你全部用股权融资,会导致客户承担更高的费率。
我们当然乐意在我们的公用事业公司里全部使用股权融资(笑),但监管机构不会答应,因为在传统体系下,那样做会导致消费者承受更高的价格。所以这已经被写进了这个体系。而且,本质上,我们的监管机构不会允许我们在获得同样净资产收益率的同时,采用全股权结构。
答案是,你知道——嗯,你其实在前面的短片里已经看到过了,不过收听网络直播的人没能看到。但就拿爱荷华州来说,你知道,我们最近获批要花三十几亿美元,但他们希望我们——爱荷华州有这样的历史传统,就像联邦里其他每个州一样——除了内布拉斯加州,那里全部是公营电力。
但每个私营电力公司,你知道,他们都有一种传统,希望债务占到X的比例。他们希望你通过借债筹集大量资金,因为这意味着消费者能用上更便宜的电力。所以答案是,如果我们拥有伯克希尔能源100%的股权,我们绝对还是会照这个做法来。我们会按照公用事业委员会告诉我们他们希望我们做的去经营。他们代表的是那些州的民众。好了查理,你要不要——
芒格:嗯,另一个问题也很简单。这是历史的偶然。它没有造成什么大的紧张关系,也没有违反诚信义务的问题。我们在沃尔特·斯科特身上也遇到过同样的问题,他多年来一直担任董事,也持有同一家公司的股票,同样是历史的偶然。我根本不认为这是什么大问题。我从未见过格雷格有任何不符合伯克希尔最佳利益的行为。
是的。自从我们大约在2000年收购伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司以来,我们持有的股份比例一直在变化。当时的情况是,我妹妹——她也在场——我们在自己家里,正举行一个聚会。大概有20到30人,可能是30个人。沃尔特跟我说:“你有一两分钟时间吗?我想跟你谈点事情。”
于是我们走进书房还是什么地方,沃尔特说:“你知道,我们有这家公司,它好像不太适合上市公司的模式。你愿不愿意把它买下来,然后私有化?”我说:“当然。”你知道吧?(听不清)价格。
等我们回到奥马哈——当时是在西海岸。我们回到奥马哈后,跟大卫·索科尔见了面,他是除沃尔特之外最大的股东。我们就价格达成了一致。我记得沃尔特跟戴夫说:“别跟沃伦讨价还价。”(笑)“你懂的,他会说算了吧,然后转身去做别的事。”
于是我们买下了它。所以从一开始这就是个有点奇怪的结构,我们有一家公众持股的公用事业公司,牵扯到各种各样的事情。后来情况不断演变,现在我们大概持有91%的股份,还有沃尔特的遗产那部分——我完全不知道那部分股份会流向哪里。沃尔特从没跟我谈过这件事,我也从没问过他。
但不管怎样,这些权益一部分跟他本人有关,一部分现在归遗产所有。加起来差不多有八份,我猜。格雷格也持有一份。而从我们的角度看,如果他们真的来找我们——如果他们(听不清)只是想做点什么,你知道,我们会说:“好。”如果格雷格想这么做,我们也会同样对待他,而他很可能会想这么做,我是说。
但从我们的角度来看,我从未见过任何决定——哪怕有一丝一毫的迹象——如果我认为这会有什么影响,你知道,那他就不会是那种适合执掌伯克希尔的人。当然,问题在于,一旦涉及内部人士,就会牵扯出很多流程。
只要我还活着,你知道,我的利益百分之百跟伯克希尔一致。董事会呢,可能在某种程度上会有点不情愿,但他们大概只会说:“嗯,沃伦觉得这笔交易没问题,那就应该没问题。”这倒是真的。(笑)
所以我可以跟任何人达成交易,而不会被那些流程搞得一团糟。但另一方面,如果我不在了,你知道,董事们就会承受压力,去做律师叫他们做的一切事情,而律师会让他们做这做那。
然后他们还想请投资银行家来做估值。从那时起,整件事就变成了一场游戏。而且很花钱,也很花时间。所以如果这事能在我还活着、还在的时候办成,会更好一些,但没有理由——我们当然更想要100%而不是91%,因为这样伯克希尔能赚到更多利润。
但除非斯科特家族或格雷格自己想这么做,否则没有理由去主动做什么。合乎逻辑的做法是,如果斯科特家族那边发生了什么变化,我们肯定会先给格雷格一个机会。但谁知道以后会发生什么呢。
有一件事我可以向你们保证:伯克希尔·哈撒韦的股东绝不会被占便宜,如果有人不这么认为,你们可以去告我的遗产什么的(笑)。这种事不会发生。但说实话,趁我还在的时候把这件事办了,确实要比以后再办容易得多。不过——
芒格:我倒希望我们能多有20个这样的利益冲突。
巴菲特:是啊。(笑声)是啊。这话说得太对了。是啊。不,这是个完全合乎逻辑的问题。但这并不是个问题。而不管最终得出什么答案,都会对各方有利。现在呢,我完全没有——我对斯科特家族持有的股票会流向何处,或者他们对此作何感想,一无所知。
这取决于他们自己。你知道,沃尔特是我们的合伙人。就我们而言,我们把所有跟他有关的人都当作我们的合伙人对待。他们知道这一点,也不必担心我们会占他们便宜。
如果他们什么都不做,我们能理解。如果他们想做点什么,我们也能理解。不过这是个好问题,谢谢你。
10. 芒格:我愿意冒险投资中国
巴菲特:好。贝姬?
贝姬·奎克:这个问题来自蒙大拿州博兹曼的史蒂夫·布莱克莫尔,是问查理的。他说:“您过去曾对投资中国发表过一些正面看法,部分是基于估值指标。您现在的看法是什么?您在分析中会对政府的行为给予多大的权重?”
贝姬·奎克:“中国最近的一些共产党活动,包括侵犯人权、公然从美国等国企业窃取网络技术、打压商界和媒体的言论等等,是否让您改变了对投资中国的看法?您如何评估在威权政权下投资的明显风险,就像最近俄罗斯在乌克兰的暴行所显示的那样?”
芒格:嗯,这些都是好问题,毫无疑问,中国政府的做法确实让在中国投资的美国投资者感到担忧。近几个月比早些年份更甚。所以确实存在一些紧张关系。
这也影响了一些中国股票的价格,尤其是互联网股票。就在最近一两天,中国的领导层似乎在这方面有所松动,说自己做得有点过头了,要大幅收手,等等等等。所以我们看到了一些令人乐观的迹象。
但是的,在中国投资、也就是跟那边的政权打交道,确实比在美国要困难一些。而且情况不一样。那里很遥远,他们有自己的文化,自己的忠诚对象,等等等等。
我之所以投资中国,是因为我能以低得多的价格买到好得多的公司,而我愿意承担一点风险,去买这些价格更低、质量更好的公司。别人可能会得出相反的结论。而现在,比起两三年前,大家都对中国更加担心了。事情就是这样。
巴菲特:我没什么可补充的。(笑声)(掌声)
11. 伯克希尔保险浮存金的好处
巴菲特:好。8号台。
汤姆·林格:你好,沃伦、查理,我叫汤姆·林格,来自宾夕法尼亚州韦恩。时隔两年能再回到这里真好。非常感谢。
巴菲特:谢谢你能来。
汤姆·林格:在今年的信中,您谈到了保险浮存金、浮存金的演变、每股浮存金,以及回购对每股浮存金的影响。关于回购,我想说,作为您的合伙人,谢谢您审慎地回购,也谢谢您审慎地增发我们的股票。
汤姆·林格:我的问题是关于您对浮存金未来能保持稳定、且长期成本接近于零(尽管偶尔也会有不利的年份)这种可能性的预期。
是什么让伯克希尔的保险业务让您有信心做出这样的判断,尤其是在您的竞争对手也在尝试做同样的事情,却始终无法接近伯克希尔在浮存金成本和增长方面的纪录的情况下?谢谢。
巴菲特:是啊,其实他们并不是真的在做同样的事情,这点挺有意思的。你这个问题的答案是:除非我判断浮存金对我们有用而不是有害的可能性——按加权概率算——更高,否则我们不会做这门生意。
而这个问题的答案,很长时间内都不会有人知道。到目前为止一切顺利,但这终究是个判断。而我完全可能判断错误。不过,你知道,我想查理和我都会说,我们认为局面正在朝好的方向发展,而且胜算相当不错,如果有谁能做成这件事,那也很可能是我们,因为我们的处境相当有利。但是,你知道,我们知道9·11会发生吗?或者,你知道,我是说,这不是一件板上钉钉的事。
芒格:不过,你回顾一下就会发现,这里面的潜力有多大。如果我们能用我们全部的浮存金去买普通股,而且几乎可以肯定税后能有8%的回报,那可就是一大笔钱了。
巴菲特:是啊,110亿美元。我可以告诉你具体数字。(笑)110亿或120亿美元。
芒格:是的,那是一笔巨款。
巴菲特:每年都是。
芒格:是的。而且浮存金一直在增长,所以放心吧。(笑声)不过我们很高兴拥有这笔浮存金。
巴菲特:不过查理说的是两个“如果”,如果我们能赚到,还有如果我们能做到。答案是,你知道,这就是我们的工作,我们认为我们能做得跟任何人一样好,否则我们就不会做这行了。但我们的工作就是弄清楚我们想从事哪些业务,等到这些业务不再合理的时候,尽管不情愿,偶尔也要放弃它们,就像纺织业务那样。
但那些才是艰难的决定。而保险这一块,1967年杰克·林沃尔特大约在快到12点的时候顺道来到办公室,那时我压根不知道会发展成这样。查理或者我安排了这次见面。杰克呢,大概每年都会为监管的事发一次火。
他就是不喜欢被监管。他会自言自语:“我要把这个该死的东西卖掉。”有一天查理逮到了他这个状态,说:“杰克正上头呢。”你懂的,我说:“把他带过来。”于是他就在快到12点的时候来了,杰克说他想甩掉这个该死的生意。
监管机构快把他逼疯了什么的。我说:“行,我买。”我说:“你想要什么价钱?”他说:“差不多每股50美元吧。”我说:“行,就这么定了。我们不需要审计,什么都不需要。”
然后杰克开始——然后他说:“呃。”他立刻就有点后悔了,但他这个人太讲信用,不好意思反悔。所以他说:“那我想你会想让我把代理机构也卖给你吧。”我说:“不要。”当然了,如果我当时说要,他就会说:“那这笔交易就做不成了。”
所以我就说:“不用,杰克,你留着吧”,你知道。他又说:“那我想你会想让我怎样怎样”,我说:“不,不用,我不需要你做那个。”他本来是希望我能给他一个台阶下。但这样折腾了十五、二十分钟后,他发现不管他说什么,我都会答应,于是他就说愿意以50美元的价格卖给我。于是交易就这么谈成了。就这样定了。而且,(欢呼声)你知道,这纯粹是运气。而杰克——
芒格:不过,沃伦,我们真的很喜欢我们的浮存金,对吧?
巴菲特:你说什么?
芒格:我们真的很喜欢我们的浮存金。
巴菲特:哦,是的。
芒格:我们爱死它了。
巴菲特:不,我们已经把它用到了极致,但在阿吉特出现之前,我们并没有把它用到极致。(笑)你知道吗,谁能想到,1986年这个人会走进我的办公室,而我会认定他就是能把这件我一直没能按自己想法做成的事情做成的人?
还有谁能想到后来会出现GEICO呢?各种各样的事情都会发生。你必须做到的一件事,就是在机会来临时做好准备。你真的必须马上行动。而幸运的是,我所处的环境——我也不会去别的环境,如果不是这样我就会离开——是一个我可以这样做的环境。
如果董事会说,“我们要成立一个委员会来审查每一笔收购”,那就太疯狂了。我会说,“行啊,但那你们得找别人来做(笑),因为我实在不喜欢经历那一整套流程。”
要知道,我这辈子还有别的事要做。运气的成分很大,但你确实必须在心理上做好准备,一旦某件事说得通,就要大干一场,而且要立刻去做。然后你还得确保自己有做这件事的资源。
芒格:伯克希尔相对没有官僚作风——
巴菲特:难以置信。
芒格:——这在很长很长的时间里,为公司多赚了不少钱。
巴菲特:而且这也让我的生活更快乐。
芒格:是的,这就是理想状态。(掌声)
巴菲特:是啊,不过说到底,我们的处境非常有利,能够完全按照我们想要的方式运用浮存金,同时又绝不让自己陷入、也绝不接近做出我们无法兑现的承诺的境地。在阿吉特之前,我们有两家小型保险子公司,是我买下的两家公司。
其中一家我其实了解得不多,另一家是我自己一手操办的。结果都是灾难。
如果不管它们,任其发展,它们本会破产。而我们就是不想让它们破产。
所以,如果母公司出面介入,或者我们把它并入另一家保险公司之类的,我们是可以偿付那些负债的,我们也这么做了。
12.“我把伯克希尔看作一幅画”
巴菲特:我是说,说来也怪,我把伯克希尔看作一幅画。你知道,它的尺寸没有限制,画布不断在扩展,我可以随心所欲地去画。如果有人想画别的东西,那我(笑)就找一块小一点的画布,自己继续画我的。
而且,你知道,我其实对绘画一窍不通。带我去美术馆,我真正想知道的只是男厕所在哪儿。可是,(笑声)你知道,我就是不感兴趣。而别人看画的时候,他们能看出些名堂来。
然后过一段时间,他们又能看出更多东西来。我是说,他们在这方面确实有一种不同的感知能力。而对我来说,伯克希尔就是一幅画,我可以尽情去画。而且,你知道,目标当然是希望我的合伙人们能从中获益。
但我真正喜欢的是这幅画本身。只要这幅画一直在我脑子里,只要我在往前走的过程中不断从中看出新的东西,你知道,这就是我能找到的最接近于每分每秒都乐在其中的事情了。而我并不建议别人也这样做。
而且我时不时——不,其实不算“时不时”,是经常——会在这幅画里看出一些东西,心想,“唉,这里本该画得不一样。”然后我就回过头去重新画。这让人很满足。谁知道人为什么会有这样的反应呢。
但我确实知道什么能让我快乐,什么不能让我快乐。我已经找到了让我快乐的东西。那我为什么还要改变它呢?(笑)所以这就是对一个我已经不记得是什么的问题的简短回答了。(笑声)
13. 经济刺激是必要的,但它助长了通货膨胀
巴菲特:好的。贝姬?
贝姬·奎克:这个问题来自明尼苏达州明尼阿波利斯的安德鲁·凯索(音译)。
他说:“去年沃伦提到,通货膨胀已经明显影响到伯克希尔旗下企业的进货和售价。鉴于这种通胀趋势自去年股东大会以来仍在持续,某些情况下甚至有所加速,您能否谈谈这轮通胀在美国历次同类时期中处于什么位置,比如与1970年代和1980年代相比?美国的企业和民众可以做些什么来减轻通胀带来的负面影响?”
巴菲特:嗯,我们某种程度上已经在应对了,也就是你自己要做的事:培养那些无论未来交易媒介是什么,人们都愿意为之付费的技能。但就我们自己企业所经历的通胀而言,那种程度之大是非同寻常的。
你知道,我想你们采访过家具超市的欧文·布鲁姆金,这两年,这些东西的进价一直在上涨。而我们也把它们卖得更贵,人们手里的钱也比以前更多了。他们喜欢买东西。
而且有些东西是他们能买到的。这就像二战期间,那时创造出了大量的钱,可人们买不到汽车,买不到冰箱,甚至连他们想要的那么多糖或咖啡之类的东西都买不到。
他们有小小的汽油配给券,还有各种各样的东西。好吧,最终,如果人们手里的钱变多了,而商品却不多,价格就会上涨。你可以想尽各种办法,试图把它谈下去、压下去。
而且,当然,通货膨胀每次都不一样。经济学里没有什么事情第二次发生时会和第一次一样,因为第一次会影响人们在第二次时的态度,而他们的态度总是会反过来影响这件事本身的走向。
我是说,这是一个很有意思的现象。人们写教科书,是根据上一次的经历来写的。而人们读了这些教科书,所以下一次他们的行为就会不一样。然后他们又纳闷,为什么这次得到的结果和上次不一样。
所以不管怎样,我们已经发放出去了大量、大量、大量的钱——我说“我们”是指美国政府——政府已经向人们发放了大量的钱。而到了某个点上,你知道,钱不可能还值那么多钱,因为市面上流通的钱变多了。
这里有一个我想大概会让你们震惊的数字。反正它让我很震惊。美联储每周四都会公布一份资产负债表。美联储和财政部,它们是很复杂的机构。但它们确实会公布这样一份综合报表,涵盖了各家联邦储备银行,以及这些年来通过立法确立的各种事项。
但总归有一份资产负债表。大约15年前,如果你去看,你知道,美联储发行我之前提到过的那些票据。这是目前的一份。(笑)他们印这些纸片,然后通过某种方式,把它们分发到人们手中。
有意思的是,人们说现金已经死了,说什么无现金社会。可是,往回看十年或十五年,那时流通中的现金大约是8000亿美元。而如果你去看上周四的报告,你会发现,现在流通中的现金大约有2.2万亿美元。
2.2万亿美元。现在,美国大约有3.3亿人口。我们这样来看这件事。3.3亿人口,流通中的现金将近2.3万亿美元,那就是每人7000美元,理论上说,每一个男人、女人、孩子,都拥有价值7000美元的现金。
当然,实际情况并非如此。但你确实知道,美联储的账目基本上是准确的。他们手里确实有那么多钱在外面流通。我不知道它在哪儿。我是说,我不知道它是不是在俄罗斯。我不知道它是不是在南美洲。我不知道它在哪儿,你知道,我也不知道是不是都在查理手里。
我是说,(笑声)这是一个惊人的数字,你知道吗?现金已经死了,可我们平均下来,美国每个人却有7000美元。好了,趁你还在消化这个数字,不妨想一想,如果美国政府——他们私下商量决定要这么做,然后决定要发钱,美联储,我不打算把这个怪到美联储头上,是华盛顿那边的某个人决定要给美国每一户人家寄出100万美元——那会发生什么。
美国大约有1.3亿户人家,差不多是这个数吧?他们打算给你邮寄100万美元现金。而且附带了几个条件。其中一条是,如果你在接下来的30天里谈论这件事,这笔钱就会消失。
所以就像那些老电视节目里演的那样,噗的一声,就消失了。而过了30天之后,你就可以花这笔钱了。好了,突然间,美国的家庭财富——美联储会给出一个估算数字——变成了130万亿美元左右。
所以基本上,你把家庭财富翻了一倍。而你所做的一切,不过是给人们寄了钱,但你不告诉他们,其实每个人都收到了。你只是告诉他们中了彩票,或者随便什么说法。而现在,你凭空多出了一笔相当于原有家庭财富的金额。
平均而言,人们的财富翻了一番。他们多了这130万亿美元的财富。而且在一个月之内,他们就能把它花掉。那么,会发生什么呢?物价会上涨。但会立刻上涨吗?你不知道别人是不是也拿到了钱,你只知道自己拿到了,所以你不会真觉得自己得赶紧冲出去买东西。
但一旦消息传开——我们已经寄出去了,如果你看看我们已经分发的金额,联邦政府,我只是在说资源的分配,我们说的是那样规模的数字。这就会影响价格。
它必然会影响价格。如果你回家发现自己的净资产比昨天多了十倍,但其他所有人也一样多了十倍,这并不会增加经济中面包的数量,也不会增加汽车的数量。
这只是意味着这东西的价格、价值会下跌。这关乎购买力。你不可能买到不存在的东西。所以这是一个很奇怪的时期,我们向人们发放了大量的钱,人们不管以哪种方式拿到了钱,却没能找到像以前那么多可以买的东西。
我们还遭遇了供应链中断,各种事情都在发生。但结果是,他们走进内布拉斯加家具城,开始买东西。他们在我们旗下其他公司也这么做。而且他们的买法非常特别。
现在他们在买东西,比如说,珠宝店,总体而言以前不算是个很好的生意。两年前,商场里凡是有珠宝店、或者有多家珠宝店的房东,都在担心租金怎么收。
而现在,几乎每家珠宝店的经营状况都好得出乎意料,库存却少了很多,因为人们进店就直接买。他们不等打折。你知道,他们一走进店里,走出来的时候手上就已经买了东西。
而且他们付了钱。他们有钱。所以我们看到的是,我们以这样或那样的方式给人们寄出了大量的钱,这种效应正在释放出来。这是间接的,一旦涉及一个庞大的系统,一切都会变得复杂。
但这就是发生的事情。我可以向你保证,如果我们给美国每个家庭寄100万美元,而你不知道这件事发生了,那么你不会指望明天的行为会有什么变化。
但不知怎么,到了某个时刻——假如你开始每个月都这么做,人们真的知道你在这么做,他们就会开始预期,提前买、往前买。我是说,经济学里会发生成百上千种事情。
但答案是,我们经历了大量的通胀,而如果你要寄出我们所寄出的那种规模的钱,几乎不可能不发生通胀。而且我们这么做大概是件好事。事实上,我认为有一个时刻,如果联邦储备——它实际上是创造货币的机构——如果他们没有这么做,你们现在的生活会糟糕得多,糟糕得多。
那是一个重要的决定。这就是为什么会有通胀。天知道,我是说,它可能会结束。你可以让国家陷入衰退。你可以做各种各样的事情。顺便说一句,这个国家会有衰退,也会周期性地发生萧条。
事情会以不同的方式发生。你今天读报纸,一年后你会想,“我一年前读报纸干嘛?”我是说,事情就是这样运作的。我1942年买第一只股票的时候,我知道之后会发生什么吗?
当然不知道。我什么都不知道。但我只需要有一个想法。而那个想法其实并不成形,大概就是每个孩子在我们刚卷入战争时对国家的那种感觉,你知道吗?我们认为美国会赢。
如果美国当时会赢,那它总体上就会赢。储蓄债券当时利率是2.9%。我知道这个是因为我们买了。它们最初叫战争债券,后来叫国防债券,再后来叫储蓄(笑)债券。
但它们其实是同一种东西。你印大量的钱,钱就会变得不那么值钱。不是一文不值,是less(较不值钱)。我有一次在CNBC上因为说这个惹了麻烦,因为我说的是分开的两个词,“worth”和“less”,钱会更“less worth”,结果被压缩成了“worthless”(一文不值)。(笑)所以我花了好几年才学会把这两个词分开说。总之,这就是我所知道的关于经济学的全部,甚至更多。查理大概能补充改进一下。
芒格:嗯,这件事发生的规模是前所未有的。那些支票就这样寄给了每一个自称有生意、自称有雇员的人。他们大概是把整个国家淹没在了钱里,持续了一段时间。而且正如你说的,他们大概不得不这么做。但这是以前从未在这种规模上做过的事情。
巴菲特:但我们遇到了一个以前没有过的问题。
芒格:是的,哦(笑)不,我不是说这不是个好主意。
巴菲特:我是说,在我看来,[美联储主席]杰伊·鲍威尔是个英雄。我是说,很简单,他做了他必须做的事,你知道吗?如果他什么都不做,我是说,他本可以,你懂的,很容易就选择你所说的那种“吮拇指式”的无所作为。而且有不少——我不该说“不少”,但确实有别的美联储主席会选择吮着拇指坐视不管。到时候世界会在他们周围崩塌。也没人会真正怪他们,人们会去怪病毒、怪中国人,怪各种各样的事情。
芒格:嗯,真正有意思的例子是日本,他们先是把所有债务都买回来了,然后又开始把所有普通股都买回来。这真的很怪。他们得到了什么?25年的停滞。谁能预测到这个?
巴菲特:嗯,没人能预测到任何事。我是说,(笑)没有谁的预测是我们感兴趣的,包括我们自己的预测。我是说,很简单。我们确实知道的是,我们能够配得上你们的信任,也没有理由去做配不上这份信任的事。
我们没法预知,但基本上,我们是在努力打造一个虽然扛不住核战争、但能扛住我们所能应对的一切风险的伯克希尔。这让我们感觉良好。它不能让我们感觉完美。我们本想向你们承诺更多,但我们没法承诺更多。所以,就是这么简单。
14. 应该修改公认会计准则(GAAP)的规则吗?
巴菲特:好,那我们就转到第18个问题。让我看看,那是第九站。
埃利·阿布沙卡尔:亲爱的巴菲特先生和芒格先生,我是来自加拿大蒙特利尔的埃利·阿布沙卡尔(音)。我想感谢你们为我们、你们的股东同仁所做的一切。
我的问题是关于GAAP规则的。如果让你来修改,你会改什么?会是什么样子?谢谢。
巴菲特:那我会辞职不干这活。查理,你会怎么做?(笑)
不,这是个不可能解决的问题。因为首先你得决定GAAP到底应该反映什么。它反映的并不是价值。但在某些情况下,当然,说这就是价值之类的话也很重要。
我是说,这是一种约定俗成的东西,这么做是为了让审计师大体上受到保护,因为不然的话,在这个国家,人人都会为任何事情起诉任何人。而且它的设计初衷,是让那些想要报出市场所期望的某个数字的人,大体上都能做到。
我不知道我会怎么写这些规则。我是说,我见过一些人,我会很乐意住在他们隔壁,你懂吗,如果我要出门两周,我的孩子要寄住在谁家,让他们住在这些人家里我会很放心。
如果我把钱包弄丢在什么地方,被他们捡到了,他们会还给我。但只要拿到手里的任何数字,他们都会耍花招。当然了,在一家人们在数字上玩花样的公司的审计委员会任职,是件非常尴尬的事。
而且他们不希望你——如果你闹起来,你就会遇到各种各样的麻烦。我其实多年前写过点东西。我想我大概是在15年前,预料到了你今天的这个问题。我写了四条建议,作为应该向审计委员会提出的问题。
我不记得当时我是不是在可口可乐的审计委员会里,还是别的什么公司。但不管怎样,我是说,当时事情对我来说是很清楚的。但你确实得配合演这出戏,不然的话,光是这么做本身,你也会惹上各种各样的麻烦。所以,我就提出了四个我想知道答案的问题。
这些都是完全合乎逻辑的问题。然后没有人采纳它们。我是说,(笑)这个系统照旧运行得很好。审计师们确实被起诉过,但没那么频繁。而SEC(美国证券交易委员会)制定了大量规则,我对SEC极为敬佩。我认为这个国家因为有SEC而变得更好。
但要设计出让人钻不了空子的规则,这本身就是个无望的问题。我有个当作家的朋友说过:“真正离谱的不是那些非法的事,而是那些合法的事。”这事很难。你尽力去做,也值得去做。
你需要一个SEC。但SEC其实没法真正阻止那些——如果被解释清楚,你会觉得离谱的事情。审计师也面临同样的问题。我是说,审计师,他们想要规则,想要流程,他们希望有一套东西让他们能够照章操作。
查理当年在所罗门的审计委员会任职,我们大概有字面意义上数百万份合同,人们往里面填数字,他发现了那2000万美元——那时候我们用的是全国最大的审计事务所,安达信,我记得是这样,查理——
芒格:他们现在已经没了。
巴菲特:是的,他们现在没了。但他们曾经是(笑)最大的。查理大概有一次在一次审计中发现了一个2000万美元的错误。
芒格:他们管那个叫“凑数项”(plug)。
当你的会计师开始跟你谈起“凑数项”的时候,那可不是好兆头。(笑)
15. 所罗门的“浮动凑数项”
巴菲特:好吧,我给你们讲个我以前没讲过的故事。(笑)
你们在那部电影里看到了,这边的人看到我在8月份于一个小组委员会前作证,那些人一门心思想整出点名堂来对付我。我当时就决定,你知道,我就要诚实地回答每一个问题,不打算去回避任何事情。
然后我就坐在他们面前,把我知道的和不知道的都说了出来。我说的一件事,也是完全属实的,就是我到所罗门也就十天左右,我说:“说实话,到目前为止,我还没看到会计上有什么让我觉得糟糕的地方。”
“可我才去了十天。而这个把我们卷进这一大堆麻烦的家伙,到目前为止,也只有这一件事被我发现。我不知道以后还会发现什么,一个每天做着数不清的交易、什么事都在发生的地方,我怎么可能知道里面到底出了什么事?”
我说,“我看到的情况是,这些会计处理在我看来是合规的。”大约一个月后,我庆幸自己早作证而不是晚作证,一位很不错的首席财务官——这些都是很正派的人,真的很正派——他进来对我说:“沃伦,有件事你大概应该知道一下。”
我说:“哦,什么事?”他说,大概12年前吧,所罗门和菲布罗(Phibro)合并了,那是一家很大的交易公司,所罗门是一家很大的投资银行,两家合并后成了一个庞然大物。
他说,12年前我们和他们合并的时候,两边的账目就没能对得很准——他们用的是交易制记账法,我们用的是结算制。他说,我们后来其实一直没弄明白该怎么把账本合到一起。而给这份账签字的,是美国最大的审计公司——安达信(Arthur Andersen)。
“所以我们就有了这么一个数字,每天都在变,就是硬塞进去让资产等于负债的。”(笑)“而且,你知道,今天是173,412,000美元,精确到分。明天又会变成别的数字,你懂吧?”
我心里想:“真庆幸我是一个月前去国会作证的,因为那时候我根本不知道这事。”但如果他们以后再问我,我一定把实情原原本本告诉他们:“我们就有这么一个每天飘来飘去的数字,12年了都没找到问题出在哪儿,安达信也不知道它在哪儿。”(笑)“可是你总得让资产等于负债吧?不这么做还能怎么办?”事情就是这么发生的。这世上真是有些奇怪的事情。这一个家伙——
芒格:我记得这东西的名字叫“浮动塞子”(floating plug)。(笑)
巴菲特:对,是的,是的。而查理还在审计委员会里呢。(笑)
是的,有一件事我一直建议大家去做,可从来没人愿意做,我也理解为什么,但你想啊,全世界的银行、投资银行,每天都在为价值数万亿美元的合同之类的东西填上一个个小数字。
我是说大宗商品交易商也一样,在伯克希尔,我们也要按规定做一些对冲,甚至连监管机构都要求我们对公用事业公司这么做,我们也得填上一个数字。我以前提过一两次这样的建议:如果你真想搞点有意思的事,就找个年轻人,给他两三个星期时间,挑出一百份最复杂、期限最长、条款最繁琐的衍生品合约。
然后看看合约一方承诺要做的事,他们给它估的价是多少,再看看另一方——同样要出报表的那一方——给它估的价是多少。你就随机拿这一百笔交易来做这个比对。我很想知道,如果我们把一份合约估值为2800万美元,对方把同一份合约估值为3300万美元,会是什么情况。
而且双方用的还是同一家审计事务所,他们都在上面签了字。我觉得从来没人真去做过(笑)这样的事。说实话,如果我真想深入了解会计里到底发生了什么,这会是我做的第一件事。
但人生中有很多事情是你没法改变的。而且没有人会主动去找一些可能招来官司和报纸报道的事情来做,(笑)诸如此类。我也不怪他们。
16. 如何以折扣价拿到一份公允性意见书
巴菲特:我带了一样东西,实在没忍住,一定要说一下。
我本来希望有人会问到这个问题,所以干脆自己来问自己。(笑)
我本来希望有人问:怎么会有人蠢到给阿勒格尼公司(Alleghany Corp)开出每股848.02美元这样一个价格,不管到底是不是这个数?我是说,这也太“科学”了吧,你说是不是?(笑)
当然,我在出价时确实规定了:每股850美元,扣除他们要付给他们所选投资银行的费用——在这个案子里就是阿勒格尼要付的费用——他们势必得这么做,因为特拉华州的法律就是这么设计的,只要董事们拿到了专家意见,他们就受到保护,诸如此类。
所以,我不怪这套体制里的任何一方。但我想这件事说不定挺有用的,也许对将来的特拉华州法官有用,对特拉华州立法者有用,对写论文的人有用,谁知道呢。
但我提了一句:既然我愿意按现状每股850美元买下这家公司,那么如果顾问费是1000万美元还是4000万美元,对某个人来说是会有影响的。
对我们作为买方来说,这一直都是有影响的,但游戏规则就是这样。这里面还有一点历史渊源。我回头查了一下,在伯克希尔哈撒韦57年的历史上,一共只有过两次——从来没人注意到这一点——伯克希尔被要求出具一份公允性意见书。
而这两次要求我们出具公允性意见书,都是完全合乎逻辑的,因为其中一次是多元零售公司(Diversified Retailing),那是我个人投资的一家公司,这两次都涉及我们合伙企业出来的公司,但一家的股东群体和伯克希尔的股东群体不一样,两家想要合并,也就是说是两家公司,而我在其中都是最大的受益人。
而这个换股比例该定多少,其实并不该由我一个人来定,尽管我是牵涉最深的人。但我在其中一家公司持有的股份比在另一家多一些。所以无论如何,需要一份公允性意见书。而这在伯克希尔的历史上,也只发生过这么两次,需要出具这样一份意见书。
所以我自然去找了查理,我说:“查理,”——其实是查理告诉我的,他比我更清楚这件事——“这个案子我们需要一份公允性意见书。”我说:“你知道,我知道什么是公平的,你也知道什么是公平的,桑迪(Sandy)也知道他认为什么是公平的。”
如果这东西就是我们三个人所有的,我们三个坐下来十分钟就能谈出一个大家都觉得公平的方案。但因为有公众股东在里面,各种因素综合下来,这么干是不合适的。第一次——我们一共有两次——第一次是1978年11月27日。
我对股东们讲得很明白:我个人认为,多元零售公司和伯克希尔的股东都会从这次合并中受益,但我只会在两家公司中——除我以外的其他股东所投出的股份——多数支持合并的情况下,才投票赞成合并,结果也确实如此。
我承诺让大家自己来判断这是不是公平的。但除此之外,我们还需要请一家有名气的投行出具一份公允性意见书。于是我对查理说:“你知道,这类东西一般要价100万美元、200万美元,”找个上周才雇来的家伙,写点东西出来,然后我们就收到一张100万美元或200万美元的账单。
“他们其实什么都没干,两边的公司他们都不了解,说实话,有太多东西他们根本不会知道,但他们照样会出一份意见书。而我们又需要这份意见书。”我说:“那我该怎么办?”遇到这种问题,我就会去找查理。
查理说:“沃伦,这很简单。”他说:“挑出十家有声望的投资银行,照我说的做就行。”(笑)“好吧查理,等我挑出这十家,我该怎么做?”他说:“把它们排个顺序,从第一到第十。”
他说:“打电话给排第一的那家,告诉他你只愿意付6万美元来做这份公允性意见书。你也知道这个价格挺侮辱人的,他要接了这活儿也挺荒唐的,因为这会影响他以后能从别人那儿拿到的价钱——后面的人会回头说,‘巴菲特才付了6万美元,我凭什么付200万美元?’”
他说:“你就直接告诉他,你只愿意出这个价。如果他觉得受了侮辱——他也理应觉得受了侮辱——你就去找排第二的那家,开出同样的条件,一路往下找,找到第十家为止。如果找到第十家还没人接,你就跟这些人说,你会再回去找第一家,说‘好吧,我给8万美元’,然后再从头往下找一遍,照这个例子来。”
好吧,(笑)于是我挑出了十个名字,排第一的名字是杰克·夏德(Jack Shad)。杰克·夏德是汤姆·墨菲(Tom Murphy)的朋友,也是比尔·鲁安(Bill Ruane)的朋友,他当时执掌E.F.哈顿公司(E.F. Hutton),是一位非常、非常成功的投资银行家。
我跟他没有跟其他人那么熟,但通过朋友们认识他。所以我给他打了电话,说:“杰克,”我说,“我有个挺离谱的请求。”他说:“没关系,大家都这么敬重你,我的朋友也是你的朋友,”诸如此类,还说E.F.哈顿公司名声那么好。
我说:“我要跟你说的事完全违背你的利益,我完全能理解你会说,‘你打这个电话找我,简直是脑子有问题’,然后直接把电话挂了。”但我说:“杰克,我们的做法是这样的。”
于是我把这个流程讲给他听:先给他打电话,如果他拒绝,我就去找佩恩韦伯(Paine Webber),然后再去找(听不清)。我告诉他:“一共有十个人选,如果一个‘同意’都拿不到,我会再回来找你,出价7.5万美元,照这个流程一直做下去,直到有人答应为止。”
我说:“杰克,你知道吗,你是我打的第一个电话,所以是6万美元,而且这么做会搞砸你的生意,因为以后你所有的客户都会说,‘你给多元零售公司和伯克希尔做的时候只收了6万美元,凭什么问我们要200万美元?’”
杰克说:“沃伦,这个你不用担心。(笑)我能处理。”他说:“我们接。”于是我们就有了一份代表其中一方的公允性意见书。接下来我打给了佩恩韦伯,跟他们说了同样的说辞。我说:“E.F.哈顿公司蠢到愿意用6万美元接了一边的活儿,”“我也不知道他们干吗这么干,简直是在毁自己的名声,”诸如此类。佩恩韦伯说:“我们6万美元接另一边。”(笑)所以我们就有了这么一件事,能说明整个流程是怎么回事。
芒格:他们派了(听不清)……派了个和善的酒鬼过来,反正得给这人找点事干。
是啊,他们实际做的(笑)就是各自给我们开了一张6万美元的账单,我们照付了。
那就是6万美元能买到的东西。
巴菲特:不不不。(笑)我们拿到的跟别人拿到的没什么两样,查理。
芒格:对,我知道。
巴菲特:而且,当然了,杰克·夏德,那是1978年,后来他被任命为证交会(SEC)主席,(笑)做了七年。不过杰克确实喜欢做生意,这事也确实没伤到他。他们收了我们6万美元,然后下周回头就找别人收200万美元。
这些都不过是玩玩的小钱。后来我们收购蓝筹印花公司(Blue Chip Stamps)的时候,我们用了同样的办法,因为四五年后我们又遇到了类似的利益冲突问题。我们又回去找了同样那两个人。当时通货膨胀之类的因素也涨了不少。
所以我们当时说是11万美元。我留着那份招股说明书。两家都说,你知道的,“寄过来吧,别管我们其他客户,我们会想办法跟他们交代的”,诸如此类。但我就是觉得,总有一天,让大家意识到这不是玩具钱,挺有意思的。
总得有人付这笔钱。这就是个游戏。你知道,但这就是在特拉华州能过关的做法,律师会向董事们解释,只要按某种特定方式操作,他们就不会被起诉。所以我就想,总得有人在某个时候(笑)指出这种情形里到底在发生什么。
这就是我们这么做的原因。你知道,这也许会跟我们之前那些想教育全世界了解金融现实及其种种互动关系的尝试一样,比如为什么让儿子去当投资银行家比当电工更好,诸如此类。但你们有一位怪癖的董事长,他就是这么干的。(笑)查理,你对这整件事怎么看?这本来就是你的主意。
芒格:嗯,我们是有点古怪。(笑声)不过这些古怪之处也不全是坏事。
17. 查理拿到一笔保险理赔
巴菲特:这次我没有事先跟查理商量。不过查理给过我四个点子,合在一起,可以说是彻底改变了一切。我觉得你真该跟大家讲讲那个欺诈公司的经历,(笑)查理。
芒格:讲什么?
巴菲特:讲那个欺诈理赔的事,你知道,就是那个Fidelity的理赔,跟那个家伙的事,他是一家很有名的保险公司的人,咱们就不点名了。但是,你知道,你基本上就跟他说,“干脆把赌注加大,让这场游戏变得公平。”这是1960年代的事了。你还记得吗?
芒格:我不记得了。
巴菲特:哦,我倒是记得。
芒格:那你就讲吧。(笑声)
巴菲特:查理当时经营着一家很小的机构,他管理着自己的基金,同时还在太平洋证券交易所有一个席位。这家公司叫惠勒和芒格(Wheeler and Munger)。一开始叫惠勒和芒格,后来改成了芒格惠勒,杰克·惠勒说,“嗯,用不了多久就会变成芒格公司了,不过没关系。”杰克·惠勒是个非常有意思的人,他持有通用汽车等几只股票的做市商席位。后来有个员工从公司偷了,我记得好像是1.2万美元左右。
芒格:对。嗯,我记得,他拿走了那些交易凭条。
巴菲特:对。有个家伙偷了一笔钱,而查理的公司,惠勒和芒格,按规定必须持有一份忠诚保证保险(Fidelity bond),用来应对员工不诚实等各种情况。所以这个人显然是不诚实的,他显然偷了钱。
于是查理就提出了1.2万美元左右的理赔申请,不管具体损失是多少,寄给了这家非常大、非常有声望的保险公司。结果,保险公司当然拒赔了。他们说,你知道,“这家伙其实根本没被雇用过,他根本不存在,你根本没养过这条狗”,诸如此类的话,反正就是全盘否认。
查理收到了这封拒赔的回信,他们不打算支付这笔理赔。于是查理就给这家保险公司那位很有名望的大老板写了封信。他说,“听着,”他说,“我们有这笔1.2万美元的理赔。”他说,“这家伙偷了这笔钱,我们以为我们买的保险就是为了防止有人偷钱的,一旦有人偷钱就该赔我们。”
他还说,“我们现在处在一个很有意思的境地,因为你们有一帮拿工资的员工,他们照样能拿到每周或每月的薪水,不管怎样,所以他们只需要说,‘我们不赔’,日子照样过下去。
“而我呢,坐在这儿,得花时间去处理这件事,可这1.2万美元根本不值得我为此耗费精力去跟你们这家公司纠缠,你们还会上诉,诸如此类。”所以他说,“我知道,如果有人说你们是在利用这种谈判地位的不对等来逃避理赔,你们一定会感到被冒犯。
“这绝不可能是你们的本意。所以,为了真正践行你们的行为准则,我建议咱们干脆把这1.2万美元的理赔额乘以十,双方都算作12万美元。如果你们输了,你们付我12万美元。如果我输了,我付你们12万美元,这样一来,对我来说就值得费这个劲了。”
于是(笑声)他把这封信寄给了董事长本人,跟这位老兄这么说。结果他回信就收到了一张1.2万美元的支票。(笑声)
这可不是个坏教训。他还跟我讲过另外两个,不过那些招数太好用了,我现在都不想拿出来分享,说不定哪天我自己还要用呢。
18. 巴菲特为什么不肯花25美元买下全部比特币
巴菲特:好,我们请贝姬提问。
贝姬·奎克:关于这个话题我们收到了很多问题。我就问这个来自拉杰的问题吧。他说,“您对比特币和/或加密货币的看法有没有发生任何变化(笑声)?我自己挺矛盾的,”因为他自己的看法在过去两年里也发生了些许演变,从“比特币是骗局、是浪费”变成了“比特币处在一个投机泡沫中,但也许有些用处”。
巴菲特:嗯,(笑)我本不该回答这类问题,但我还是要说说。你知道,看这场直播的人里有各种各样持有比特币多头仓位的人,却没有一个是空头,没人愿意被人踩着自己的气管。我不怪他们,我自己也不喜欢别人踩我的气管。
但我要说的是,假如在座各位拥有美国的全部农田,你们给我1%的权益,你们说为了这1%的美国全部农田的权益,付我们一个价钱,就算是10亿、20亿吧,给个划算价,250亿美元,那我今天下午就给你们开张支票,250亿美元,现在我拥有了1%的农田。
如果你告诉我,你拥有美国全部的公寓楼,你给我1%的权益,让我在全国所有公寓楼里都持有1%的份额,你要多少钱,就算也是250亿美元之类的,我照样给你开支票。你知道,这非常简单。
但现在,如果你告诉我,你拥有全世界所有的比特币,你要以25美元的价格卖给我,我不会要,因为我拿它能干什么?我早晚还得想办法把它再卖回给你们。我是说,也许不是同一批人,但它本身产生不了任何东西。
公寓楼会产生租金,农田会产生粮食,可如果我拥有了全部比特币,我就回到了那位不管叫什么名字、也许根本不存在的人15年前的处境。如果我拥有了全部比特币,他倒是可以围绕它编造出一个谜团来。
可是每个人都知道我是什么样的人。我是说,所以(笑)如果我想脱手,你知道,大家会说,“嗯,你知道,我为什么要买你的比特币?你干嘛不干脆叫它‘巴菲特币’,自己造一个不就得了?搞点别的名堂吧。反正我不会为它给你任何东西。”
而顺便说一句,他们说得没错。但这就说明了生产性资产和那种全靠下一个人出价比上一个人高才有价值的东西之间的区别。而且,如果你细看的话,这里面已经支付了大量佣金,我是说,有各种各样看似虚构、实则真实的成本,是某些人付给了一帮为这场游戏提供便利的人的。
但不管公众中某一群人拿走了什么,或者某一群持有者拿走了什么,都是从别人那里流进来的。我是说,别人进了这个房间,他们把钱挪来挪去。可房间里的钱总量并没有增加,只是易了主,这中间也许还夹杂着不少欺诈和成本,你知道,还有一大堆别的事情。
你们会亏钱,你知道,你会忘掉那些数字,忘掉那道算式。很多事情都可以这样。我是说,历史上这种事屡见不鲜。有些东西即便不生产任何实物,也具有价值。我是说,你可以说一幅伟大的画作,你知道,五百年后大概率还会有价值。
也可能没有,但如果它当初的名气够大,那概率还是相当高的。总会有那么几样东西。我是说,你知道,你总能找到愿意为它付钱的人。如果有人想把金字塔卖给你,你可以向来参观的人收费,你知道,它会存在很久,虽然本身不生产任何东西,但人们会觉得去那儿看看很有意思,因为他们早就听说过金字塔。
但归根结底,资产要有价值,就必须能给某个人带来某种东西。而在美国,只有一种货币是被普遍接受的。我是说,你可以搞出各种各样的花样。我们可以发行伯克希尔币,或者,你知道,发行伯克希尔货币之类的东西。
但我猜,如果我们真把它叫做“货币”,我们就会有麻烦了。但归根结底,这才是货币,而美国政府——大家更愿意用它的货币——完全没有理由。我是说,现在实实在在漂浮在外面的这种小纸片,总共差不多有2.3万亿美元,平均下来美国每个男女老少能分到7000美元,尽管这些钱大部分可能根本不在美国境内。谁知道呢。
但这才是唯一算得上货币的东西。任何人要是认为美国会改变到让伯克希尔货币取代美元的地步,你知道,那简直是异想天开。所以不管怎样,除了这几点不足之外,你知道,它未来一年、五年、十年是涨是跌,我不知道。
但有一点我相当确定,那就是它不会自我繁殖,不会生产任何东西。它自带一种魔力,而人们已经把这种魔力附加到了很多东西上。我是说,这就是华尔街的一个目标,你知道,制造魔力,你懂吗?我们不是保险公司,我们是科技公司。
嗯,他们其实是保险公司。可是有那么十来家公司筹到了一大笔钱,他们就说,“别管我们卖保险这件事了。我们是一家科技公司。”结果到头来他们照样在承保保险业务,而且此后绝大多数都亏了很多钱。你可以编出各种花样,让别人心甘情愿把钱掏给你,这就是为什么——
芒格:我看这件事的角度稍微有点不一样。(笑声)
巴菲特:那我卖给你点吧。
芒格:嗯,(笑)我这辈子都尽量避开那些既愚蠢又邪恶、还会让我跟别人比起来显得很难看的事情。而比特币这三样全占了。(笑声)
首先,它很愚蠢,因为它极有可能归零。
其次,它很邪恶,因为它破坏了美联储体系和国家货币体系,而我们迫切需要维护这套体系的完整性以及政府对其的掌控。
第三,它让我们相比中国那位共产党领导人显得很愚蠢。他很聪明,在中国禁掉了比特币,而我们尽管自以为拥有种种文明优势——(掌声)——却比那位中国的共产党领导人蠢得多。
巴菲特:是啊,等这个国家25%的人因为我们今天说的话生气的时候,请记住是查理最后发言的,而且他说得最——(笑)
19. 部落主义加剧是危险的
巴菲特:有一个我真的认为很重要的现象,但我不知道有什么办法能做点什么。不过我的总体感觉——虽然没法证明——是我基本上相信,人们现在的行为比很长一段时间以来都更加“部落化”了。
我是说,人们总是会有党派立场,会有宗教信仰,会有各种各样的东西。但现在变得相当部落化了。我这么说是有亲身体会的,因为我自己就有过部落化的表现。你知道,我们今天就是在坦白,比如说内布拉斯加大学的橄榄球就是部落化的。
当我看电视的时候,看到我们内布拉斯加的球员出界了一英尺,但裁判不知怎么没看到,判他“没出界”,然后他们放了六遍回放,我还是会继续相信他“没出界”,尽管明明就在我眼前看到他出界了。你知道,这就是部落化的行为。
参与其中挺有意思的(笑)。但当一群人说“二加二等于五”,另一群人说“二加二等于三”的时候,这就会变得非常危险,你知道,你要是问他们,他们就会给你这样的答案。
有意思的是——至少对我来说是这样,部分是因为我的年纪——但我确实认为,就我的记忆而言,这个国家上一次被认为如此部落化,其实是在我小时候,罗斯福在任的时候:你要么恨罗斯福,要么爱他。
我是说,没人在乎阿尔夫·兰登在竞选,或者温德尔·威尔基在跟他竞选。人们就是有这样的情绪:要么把罗斯福的照片挂在墙上,用罗斯福的名字给孩子取名,要么恨他,觉得他要——“哦,还要第三个任期?”诸如此类,各种各样的想法。
30年代的时候,这个国家非常非常部落化,但罗斯福那一“部落”更大。而且在我看来,他们做了一些了不起的事情。但我恰好是在这样一个家庭里长大的:不说点罗斯福的坏话就没有甜点吃。我是说,相信我,如果没有甜点吃,你就会说点罗斯福的坏话。(笑)所以从小就这样被“训练”,诸如此类。
所以,我想我也见过不是这样的时期,比如艾森豪威尔跟史蒂文森竞选的时候,或者别的什么时候。我是说,人们总会有一些党派行为,也总会有一定程度的“部落化”。但我认为,不管怎样,人们变得部落化,对整个社会而言都不是什么好现象。(掌声)查理,你是哪个“部落”的成员?(笑)
芒格:嗯,在加州,我们的立法机构选区划分完全是被操纵的,所以议员永远不会被选民赶下台。因此,立法机构里剩下的只有疯狂的右派和疯狂的左派。他们每十年聚一次,立法机构里通常还有六个温和派,于是他们就重新调整所有选区,把这几个温和派赶走,因为两边都受不了他们。这就是加州的政治。(笑)
巴菲特:是吗?可你还住在那儿,还得回去?(笑)
芒格:是的,是的。
巴菲特:我相信你会——
芒格:不过我还是宁愿住在那儿,也不愿住在俄罗斯。(笑)(掌声)
巴菲特:好了。还有谁我们没得罪过?(掌声)
是谁来着,伦尼·布鲁斯,他以前常说:“有没有谁是我忘了得罪的?”
20. 巴菲特最喜欢的老板
巴菲特:好。我想是第10组。
萨赫杰:您好,巴菲特先生和芒格先生。我叫萨赫杰,来自新泽西州,目前是罗格斯大学大一新生。您很早就知道自己想成为投资者,而且显然做得非常出色。
对于还在努力弄清楚自己想专注于什么、想找到自己使命的人,您有什么建议?
巴菲特:嗯,这是个非常有意思的问题。因为我非常非常幸运。我之所以找到了自己想做的事,是因为我爸爸恰好从事一门他并不感兴趣的生意,但那里有些书,我很爱我爸爸,就常跑去那儿读那些书,结果对这些书产生了兴趣。
你知道,我很庆幸他不是职业拳击手之类的,不然我恐怕连牙齿都保不住了。(笑)这纯粹是偶然,完全是偶然,但我确实认为,你一看到(自己喜欢的东西)就会知道。不过这并不意味着你就能照着去做。
我想对学生们说的,就像我在(年报)里写的那样,就是“找出你热爱做的事情”。我是说,你这辈子大部分时间都在做这件事,你到底为什么要一辈子跟你不喜欢的人共事呢?除非你不得不这样,这种情况有时也会发生。就为你最钦佩的人工作吧。
我有一次在斯坦福做演讲。后来我记得几天后有人跑到汤姆·墨菲的办公室去了。那个人做得没错。当然,我离开学校后做的就是这件事:我想为本·格雷厄姆工作。我是说,我根本不在乎报酬多少,那都无所谓——你知道,我就是知道那是我想做的事。
然后我死缠烂打了他三年,他终于雇用了我。后来我又找到了一个我更愿意为之工作的人,那个人恰好就是我自己。(笑)从那以后我就一直为自己工作。不过我这辈子大概有过四个老板。我曾去过《林肯日报》工作,那位老板的名字我一时想不起来了,他是个很棒的老板。还有奥马哈这里J.C.彭尼百货的库珀史密斯,他们都是很好的人。
但我还是更喜欢为自己工作。当然,查理和我都曾为我祖父工作过,我们都没觉得那有多有意思。我不记得了,查理,你当初为什么决定去那家店工作?查理是1940年在那儿工作的,我是——
芒格:嗯,我工作纯粹是为了体验工作,我并不需要钱。我父亲给我的零用钱很充裕,我自己也有点小生意。所以,我在你家杂货店打工,算是图个新鲜好玩。
巴菲特:一天十二个小时?
芒格:是的。
巴菲特:就为了——图个新鲜?
芒格:是啊,就图个新鲜,是的。
巴菲特:你觉得那算是善用你的时间吗?(笑)我是说,现在回头看看?
芒格:嗯,我以前从没做过这种事,我想稍微体验一下。而且我也没打算做太久。
巴菲特:嗯。(笑)我工作可绝对不是为了这个原因。(笑)
芒格:嗯——你知道,我可以给那位年轻女士一个建议:搞清楚自己不擅长什么,然后统统避开。
巴菲特:是啊。(笑)
芒格:沃伦和我就是这样找到自己的职业的。
巴菲特:绝对是这样。你知道,我们——
芒格:我们别的事都做失败了。
巴菲特:我们什么都试过,直到找到了最理想的雇主——我们自己。(笑)你知道吗?那是我们真正钦佩的(雇主)。
芒格:我知道:沃伦说过,“要为你钦佩的人工作。”(笑)他认识的唯一一个这样的人,就是他刮胡子时在镜子里看到的那个人。
巴菲特:我想他是自雇的。
芒格:因为那时候他和我都在刮胡子。
巴菲特:不过这确实不是个坏建议。真不是坏建议。我是说,前提是他们有选择的余地。我是说,查理在40年代的某一年参军入伍,他其实没得选给谁干活。而且,我记得,查理,你当时的上级也没干得太好(笑),是不是?
查理·芒格:好——如果你停下来想想,有两件事我们俩都从未成功过:第一,我们从未成功做过任何我们不感兴趣的事情,对吧?
沃伦·巴菲特:对。
查理·芒格:而且,我们也从未在任何真正很难、而我们又没什么天赋的事情上取得过成功。
沃伦·巴菲特:是啊。60年来我们一直只做自己喜欢做的事。
查理·芒格:是的,我们做到了。
沃伦·巴菲特:你知道,我们用自己的方式享受乐趣,而且——
查理·芒格:我一直感到很惊讶。你会以为,如果你够聪明,你也能把不感兴趣的事情做好。但事实并非如此。
沃伦·巴菲特:这方面我自己身上肯定有不少例子。但我们就不在这儿细说了。
21. 芒格喜欢美国拥有大量石油储备
沃伦·巴菲特:我们请贝姬来提问。
贝姬·奎克:这个问题来自俄克拉荷马州塔尔萨的福斯特·泰勒。他说他最近听了伯克希尔·哈撒韦2008年年度股东大会,你当时谈到了全球石油产量。
当时你谈到,如果全球石油产量在25年内跌破8500万桶,将会产生重大影响。
如今我们已经走到了第14个年头,全球石油产量看起来大约是7900万桶。与此同时,我们还在动用我们的战略石油储备。美国是否应该采取一些不同的做法?如果我们不采取更主动的行动,你认为未来十年会有什么后果?
沃伦·巴菲特:这个嘛,查理是石油方面的专家。
查理·芒格:这个嘛,但是——(笑)
沃伦·巴菲特:只是跟我比起来算专家。(笑)
查理·芒格:塞缪尔·约翰逊说过:“很难判断虱子和跳蚤谁的地位更高。”我们俩谁在石油上更外行,同样很难说。(笑)
沃伦·巴菲特:我们还在较量呢。(笑)
查理·芒格:在这个问题上我有不同的看法。我喜欢拥有大量的石油储备。如果我是美国的仁慈独裁者,我会把我们自己的大部分石油留在地下,阿拉伯人卖油要多少钱,我都心甘情愿地付,然后保留我们自己的油。我认为在接下来的200年里,石油会是极其珍贵的东西。没有别人跟我持同样的看法,但这并不困扰我,我只是觉得他们都错了。
沃伦·巴菲特:是啊。(笑)好吧——
查理·芒格:不过,无论如何,这不是主流看法。
沃伦·巴菲特:我们自己的看法一直挺灵活的。我是说,实际上,联邦政府正在向经济体中源源不断地供应着不知多少十亿桶的石油。而且,你知道,没过多久之前,任何人生产一桶石油都好像成了什么十恶不赦的事。我是说,你就试试没有那每天1100万桶的石油,看看明天会发生什么。
这是每个人马上都会有自己感受的一件事。而且,你知道,这还牵扯到各种不同的“部落”,只要你以任何方式谈论这个话题,就会得罪一大堆人。但最终,我认为,至少眼下,大多数人还是觉得,这个国家有一些石油,总比没有好。
而我们正在大量使用石油。如果我们试图在三年或五年内就实现转型,没人知道会发生什么,但在我看来,能顺利成功的概率极低。
查理,你何不说点更劲爆的,好让你成为得罪人最多的那个?(笑)
查理·芒格:好吧,如果你停下来想想,石油行业现在被妖魔化得这么厉害,我很难想到还有哪个行业比它更有用了。我不了解那些石油勘探商,但我认识的石油工程师,以及设计我们炼油厂和输油管道的人,都是我认识的人里最优秀、最可靠的一批人。
我几乎看不出美国石油供应方面有什么问题(掌声)。
所以我基本上是很喜欢标准石油公司的。我没有觉得它是个邪恶疯狂的地方。我倒希望世界上其他地方都能像我们的大石油公司这样运转良好。
22. 决定是否回购伯克希尔股票并没有那么难
沃伦·巴菲特:好了,我们该转到11号站了。(笑)我不确定11号站是不是能用?
格伦·唐格:我们在这儿呢。来自溢流厅的问候。我叫格伦·唐格,是纽约的一名股东。这是我参加的第20届伯克希尔年度股东大会,我很高兴我们又一次能够亲临现场。这些年来,你们二位给我们所有人带来了巨大的快乐,就我个人而言,你们的智慧不仅让我成为了更好的投资者,更重要的是,让我成为了一个更好、更快乐的人。能借此机会向你们表达感谢,是我的荣幸。所以,沃伦和查理,谢谢你们。(掌声)
查理·芒格:嗯,这才是我喜欢的那种问题。
沃伦·巴菲特:是啊,那——那挺好的。
查理·芒格:多来点这样的吧。(笑)
沃伦·巴菲特:是啊,或者你可以再说一遍。(笑)
查理·芒格:或者你可以唱出来。(笑)
格伦·唐格:也许我该就此打住了。
沃伦·巴菲特:格伦,继续吧。
格伦·唐格:我的问题跟股票回购有关。自从两年前你们开始大规模回购伯克希尔股票以来,回购规模一直在每月10亿到30亿美元之间。据我估计,当伯克希尔的交易价格相对内在价值折价约20%时,回购速度大约是每月30亿美元;折价约10%时是每月20亿美元;折价在0%到10%之间时是每月10亿美元。我这个估计大致对吗?还有没有其他因素会影响股票回购的速度?
沃伦·巴菲特:好吧,你在开场介绍里说了这么多好话之后,我还是得说(笑),你其实说错了。如果在过去三四、五个月里的某个时点,有人愿意以某个价格把500亿美元的股票卖给我们,我们会照单全收的。就是这么简单。
而且,正如我之前提到的,我们在四月份没有买入任何股票。这件事就是,只要我们能做,而且我们知道——至少我们认为概率非常高——我们确实是以我们自己的估值和我们自己的投资角度来看这件事的,如果我们认为这样做能为留下来的股东改善处境,我们就会回购。如果我们认为不能,我们就不回购。
如果我们可以选择买入我们喜欢的企业,或者回购股票——决定性的因素在于我们手上有多少钱,我们更愿意买企业。所以,你知道,我们不会整夜不睡地去算什么公式之类的东西。但只要我们认为当时做的事情不合适,我们就绝不会去做。
如果我们开了个柠檬水摊,查理和我还有你都是股东,这个柠檬水摊每周能给我们赚一美元左右,我们把它分了。然后你说你想退出。如果你说了一个价格,而我们在这个小小的柠檬水公司里有这笔钱,我们就会把你买断。如果我们不喜欢这个价格,我们就不会买断你。
这就是我们的感受。不过我们确实觉得有一种责任,要去做我们认为明智的事情,而且在任何情况下都绝不会——绝对不会——带来任何财务问题的风险,我们能设想到的任何情况都不会,除非也许是像核战争这种事,那样的话,我们会去做(回购)。但那种情况永远不可能成为一个很大的考量因素。
查理前几天提到过亨利·辛格尔顿。我记得他后来回购了公司89%的股份。他早年在股价被高估的时候疯狂卖股票、增发股票,后来又在股价被低估的时候把它们买回来。当然,其中的关键在于,得让别人觉得你这么做是错的,这样他才能大量买回来。
还有些别的公司买了很多这种东西,但伯克希尔没机会那么做。因为说到底,我们有理智的股东。如果我们的股东群体跟那些买两天期看跌期权的人一样,那我们很快就能把整个公司都买回来了。
但这是个很容易评估的概念。我是说,我买的第二只股票——我买的第一只是城市服务优先股。第二只股票是一家叫“德克萨斯太平洋土地信托”(Texas Pacific Land Trust)的公司。那是从19世纪80年代左右德克萨斯太平洋铁路公司破产中产生的。
他们拥有三百多万英亩土地,地下矿产权和地表权他们都有,等等。但在19世纪80年代那是很糟糕的土地。不过他们有某种章程规定,卖地所得的收益,不管是什么,都要用来每年买回自己的股票。
我记得,13、14岁的时候我坐在那儿算,“如果我活到一百岁,我就能拥有整个公司了。”嗯,我还没活到一百岁,而且我其实也没打算买下整个公司。所以这两个推算目前看都不准。但这确实是一家了不起的公司,就是纯粹的了不起。因为他们那时候讨论的放牧费大概一年6000美元左右,而那时他们可是有三百万英亩地啊。
后来他们不断发现石油,越来越多的石油。公司形式也变了好几次,各种变化,但他们一周接一周地买入自己的股票。我坐在那儿算,要多久我才能拥有整个公司。显然我的算法有问题(笑),因为事情并没有那样发展。
但对我来说,有一点还是很明显的:如果他们在那儿有三百万英亩地,等一切都尘埃落定,他们保留了矿产权,以及各种各样的权益——事实上他们也确实这么做了——而且是以非常便宜的价格拿到的,那对任何愿意长期持有的人来说都应该是很划算的。
事实证明,对任何长期持有的人来说,结果都非常好。但当时没人知道他们会发现那么多石油,也没人知道埃尔帕索最终会扩张到那么远,使得靠近埃尔帕索的一些地表土地变得值钱起来。你得再往外走个几百英里才能找到下一个人(笑),不过那是另一个问题了。
所以,这些东西有些其实非常简单,你知道吗?但如果人们想拿个博士学位什么的,他们就会写出几百页,塞满各种希腊字母之类的东西。而实际情况无非是:要么你能以有吸引力的价格把合伙人买出去,要么不能。
如果你手头有钱,价格又有吸引力,而你又没有其他更好的机会,那为什么不做呢?这么做你肯定是划算的。
但如果你有别的更明智的选择,你就不该这么做。如果从绝对角度看这笔交易并不划算,你也不该这么做。
查理,你有什么要补充的吗——你1943年在做什么来着?(笑)你当时在服役吗?
芒格:嗯,沃伦,我们要是不为能从这么小的起点走到今天这么远而感到高兴,那我们就是疯了。
而且能在这么好的伙伴陪伴下做到这一点,那真是幸运的人生。我们非常幸运。
巴菲特:是啊。还有,明天——(掌声)
——星期一——我可以告诉你们,几乎可以肯定的是,如果有人向我们出售——嗯,会有伯克希尔股票成交,但我们不会买。
但也很有可能,将来某一天会有大量股票——我们会增持一些股票——但不会很多。
伯克希尔的——我们的股东太聪明了,如果我们想回购股票的话,这是我们的一个问题(笑)。
但我们真的不想把任何人挤出去。不过我们在这里也是要做那些能为坚持持有的股东增加价值的事情。这其实并不复杂,有些时候我们会回购,有些时候我们不会。
不会有什么公式,但会遵循我刚才说的那些原则。
我猜我的继任者,以及他们的继任者,也会做出类似的判断,因为我们找的都是理性、忠于伯克希尔的人。
格伦,谢谢你的到来。
23.“独立”董事其实并不真的独立
巴菲特:贝姬,接下来轮到你了。
贝姬·奎克:这个问题是纽约布鲁克林的戴夫·夏恩(音)发来的。他是针对今天早些时候听到的内容提出的回应。他说:“将来,格雷格能像您之前提到的那样,那么随性地行事吗?能不经董事会批准就做出数十亿美元的即时决定吗?”
巴菲特:嗯,我猜董事会会像人们通常那样做出反应。
他们会在很多事情上——或者说部分事情上——加一些限制,或者要求更多的商议,比对我要求得更多。我是说,他们并不是“需要”这样做,但他们会觉得,他们没有那么多经验,没有认识他那么久,还有一大堆别的顾虑。
他们会觉得特拉华州的法律能更好地保护他。而且,顺便说一句,我们没有董事和高管责任保险。我是说,纽约证券交易所几乎每一家公司都有这种保险。
而我们就是不买这个。我是说,我在董事会里,而你——我是说各位董事和我——是一大堆信托的受托人。好吧,行。但很有意思的是:人们进入博物馆董事会,会被期望捐钱;人们进入大学董事会,也会被期望捐钱。
他们会说,“能进大学董事会是莫大的荣幸”,或者博物馆董事会什么的,“这是莫大的荣幸,所以你应该为我们筹款。”嗯,坦白说,我觉得我们的董事会比进大学董事会,或者医院董事会之类的有意思多了。反正我要是进了博物馆董事会或艺术董事会,我也不知道他们在说什么。
但人们发现,他们一年能挣30万美元,这对有些人来说意义重大,对另一些人则毫无意义。而且,我是说,很可能的情况是,如果他们把制度安排成董事完全不领薪水,照样会有一大堆人想当董事,那也会是件有面子的事,诸如此类。但实际上,这笔钱来得非常容易。坦白说,“独立董事”这整个概念,其实根本说不通。
芒格:你觉得一个需要靠30万美元才能坐在这里的董事算独立吗?
巴菲特:他需要这笔钱,是的。我是说——
芒格:他的“独立”,就像奴隶的独立一样。
巴菲特:我要念几句话,内容完全属实,只是我做了些改动。我不想让任何人被明确认出是谁。但这些都是逐字摘录。我不会说这是女性还是男性,我就用“他”这个代词,纯粹是因为这样说起来方便。
我从许多年前收到的一封信里摘了几句话。那封信是这样写的:“我怀着极大的不情愿和一种个人的窘迫感给您写信。我已经试过所有常规的筹款方式了。”这个人需要两百万美元左右,我要是在街上碰见他,根本认不出他是谁,但他写了这封信,说:“我需要两百万美元。”
接下来这一条,我想你们可能会觉得有意思,我一直留着这封信。“我的收入100%来自我的董事费。”嗯,我当时去查了一下他。那时候他是五家名声显赫的公司的董事,之前还当过别的公司的董事,之后还要去当一大堆公司的董事。
但他急需用钱,而他说他“100%的收入来自董事费”。而且他在这些公司的每一家都被归类为“独立董事”。这让我感到非常震惊。你知道,我们再过几分钟就要开股东大会了,马上就要开始了,让我感到非常震惊的是,2006年的时候,我们持有可口可乐公司9%的股份。
我是说,也许他们送了我一瓶免费可乐吧。但我们在伯克希尔·哈撒韦持有9%的股份,我们显然很关心可口可乐公司的各种决策。而恰好在那个时期,加州公务员退休基金(CalPERS)等几家机构建议股东对某件事投反对票,反对的对象就是我。
有一次,有两家大型机构投资者投票反对,因为他们认为我不算独立,理由是Dairy Queen买了一些可口可乐——或者说,实际上是持有我们特许经营权的那些人买了一些可口可乐。我是说,他们觉得我连脑子里的账都算不清吗?如果我们坐拥数十亿、数十亿、又数十亿美元的资产,我还会因为这点小事而被“收买”吗?
但这真是荒唐。所以有一年,我的赞成票比例从96%——也许是98%——掉到了84%。因为——我忘了是2004年还是2006年了:不知道在哪个环节,他们就是断定我不是那种能胜任这些职责的人(笑)。
你知道,这笔钱是他们收入的重要组成部分,也就是他们想要的东西。这不是说他们想做的那些别的好事就不重要了,也不代表他们是坏人。但如果说,区别在于这直接影响到你的生活水平,在这个例子里,甚至关系到这个人会不会破产:那你怎么能把这样的人称作“独立”,然后又说任何持有大量股份的人——我是说,说沃尔特·斯科特“不独立”,这简直荒谬。但规则就是这么定的,我们遵守规则。
芒格:嗯,他们现在已经不满足于只要“独立”了。他们想要一匹马、一只兔子、一头牛,什么都要凑一个。(笑声)
巴菲特:你知道,我感觉自己像伽利略——
芒格:光独立还不够。你还得有非常多样化的独立性才行。
巴菲特:对,对。而如果他们急需这笔钱——在这个例子里,是100%的收入都来自于此;而你又身处全国最显赫的五个董事会之一;而且在每一家都被归类为“独立”;你唯一的指望就是,你所在公司的CEO会接到另一家公司CEO的电话,问:“这个人靠得住吗?”然后你回答:“当然,他没问题。”意思其实是,“因为他不惹麻烦”,于是他又进了第六家公司的董事会。总之就是这样。
芒格:我只能说,这不是我们心目中的「独立董事」。
巴菲特:不,不,这一切都有点疯狂。
这就说到了,我们大约15分钟后不会在这里召开年会。我们将在3点45分重新开会,然后处理会议所需的正式事务。欢迎大家留下来,这非常——(掌声)
24. 正式业务会议开始
巴菲特:现在我们迎来了大家期待已久的时刻。
我们将召开年会。
查理不会和我一起参加这部分,因为过去有一两次他被镜头拍到打瞌睡。所以——(笑)
我们已经解决了这个问题。
现在我们要开一场我会照着讲稿念的年会。你们可能觉得这不可能,但我会做到的。(笑)
那么,会议现在开始。我是沃伦·巴菲特,公司董事会主席。欢迎大家参加2022年股东年会。马克·汉堡是伯克希尔·哈撒韦的秘书,他将对会议记录进行书面记载。
丽贝卡·阿米克已被任命为本次会议的选举监票人,她将对董事选举及本次会议待表决议案的投票计数进行认证。本次会议指定的代理持有人是格雷格·阿贝尔和马克·汉堡。秘书是否已准备好关于有权投票的伯克希尔在外流通股数量以及本次会议出席股数的报告?
马克·汉堡:是的,我已准备好。正如随本次会议通知一并寄送给截至2022年3月2日(本次会议的股权登记日)在册全体股东的委托书说明所示,伯克希尔A类普通股在外流通614,692股,每股在本次会议所审议议案上有一票表决权;伯克希尔B类普通股在外流通1,287,633,719股,每股在本次会议所审议议案上有万分之一票表决权。
在这些股份中,截至4月28日星期四晚间已收到委托书回执的,共有423,719股A类股和759,159,354股B类股以委托方式出席本次会议。
巴菲特:好的。我要打断一下会议,宣布一件事:隔壁还在继续卖东西,我们已经卖出了15艘船。
所以,插播这条简短广告——如果有人要离场,我不会介意。
谢谢。这个数字已构成法定人数,因此我们将直接进行本次会议。
第一项议程是宣读上次股东会议的会议记录。
现在请苏·德克尔女士向大会提出一项动议。
苏·德克尔:我提议免除宣读上次股东会议记录的程序,并批准该记录。
巴菲特:有人附议吗?
女声:我附议这项动议。
巴菲特:动议通过。
25. 董事会选举投票
巴菲特:下一项议程是选举董事。
如果在场股东尚未寄送委托书,或希望撤回此前寄送的委托书,可以就本次会议审议的董事选举及其他事项亲自投票。请向过道上的会议工作人员表明身份,以便领取选票。现在请苏·德克尔女士就董事选举向大会提出一项动议。
苏·德克尔:我提议选举沃伦·巴菲特、查尔斯·芒格、格雷戈里·阿贝尔、霍华德·巴菲特、苏珊·巴菲特、斯蒂芬·伯克、肯尼斯·钱纳特、克里斯托弗·戴维斯、苏珊·德克尔、大卫·戈特斯曼、夏洛特·盖曼、阿吉特·贾因、罗纳德·奥尔森、华莱士·韦茨和梅丽尔·威特默为董事。
女声:我附议这项动议。
巴菲特:动议已提出并获得附议,即选举德克尔女士动议中提名的15位人选为董事。提名现已可以付诸表决。如有股东要亲自投票,现在请在该动议的选票上进行标记。
阿米克女士,准备好后请汇报。
丽贝卡·阿米克:我的报告已经准备好。根据上周四晚间之前收到的委托书,代理持有人为每位被提名人投出的票数不少于449,190票。这一数字超过了全部在外流通A类股和B类股总票数的多数。
根据特拉华州法律要求的确切计票认证,将交由秘书随本次会议记录一并存档。
巴菲特:谢谢你,阿米克女士。这15位被提名人已当选为董事。
26. 股东提案
巴菲特:接下来的四项议程涉及四项股东提案,每项提案的具体内容都载于可在BerkshireHathaway.com查阅的委托书说明中。第一项提案要求公司制定一项政策并修改公司章程,规定董事会主席须由独立董事担任。董事会建议股东对该提案投反对票。
现在请全国法律与政策中心代表彼得·弗莱厄蒂陈述该项提案。
彼得·弗莱厄蒂:下午好。我是彼得·弗莱厄蒂,全国法律与政策中心主席。我来自华盛顿特区,但请不要因此对我有偏见。
我们的提案会将董事长和首席执行官的角色分开。抱歉了,查理。但我还想更进一步,建议伯克希尔从美国企业界对美国制度和文化的冲击中抽身而出。
我很自豪地说我是个资本主义者。但在我看来,资本主义显然未能为美国民众带来应有的成果。实际工资已经多年下滑。贫富差距从未如此之大(观众发出嘘声),就在我下榻的奥马哈酒店窗外,就有一处无家可归者聚居地,这在美国各城市已是司空见惯的景象。
我们没有一个自由的经济体制,我们拥有的是「救助式资本主义」。小企业亏损时会倒闭,但当亿万富翁押错宝时,政府就会出手相救。美联储的印钞行为,以及政客们不负责任的债务驱动型支出——他们称之为「财政刺激」——人为地推高了资产价值。
因此,拥有最多资产的人获益最大。而靠工资生活的人却承受着毁灭性的通货膨胀。但比贫富差距更糟糕的是价值观上的差距。如今那最富有的1%人群,正试图将他们腐化的道德观强加于我们其余所有人,不论是以批判性种族理论(观众发出嘘声)、跨性别主义,还是渗透在企业广告和信息传播中的种种其他「觉醒」议题的形式。
为什么美国企业界会同时拥抱经济和文化上的激进主义?原因很简单。当你拥有如此巨额财富时,你的财富必然会受到审视。要保护自己、让反企业的势力不来找麻烦,最好的办法就是拥抱他们的主张,哪怕这样做会破坏那个创造了你财富的体制。
这就是巴菲特先生能够主张提高税收的原因,尽管这些税负最终会落到中产阶级身上。十多年来,美联储一直向美国企业界提供免费资金,造就了一个寡头阶层,并大大增强了企业的政治权力。
如今企业高管们认为自己可以对民选州长和议员发号施令,我们在印第安纳州、乔治亚州、德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州都见识过这一点。去年,可口可乐首席执行官、英国公民詹姆斯·昆西,通过对乔治亚州新出台的选民诚信法发表不实且煽动性的言论,试图扼杀这项法律。
他还推行了多元化培训,鼓励白人员工努力表现得「不那么白」。尽管沃伦·巴菲特是可口可乐最知名的股东,但他对昆西却毫无异议。事实上,巴菲特先生还加入了「美国是种族主义国家」的大合唱,在一份由企业领袖联署的声明上签了名,该声明暗示共和党人正试图基于种族限制选民投票权。
尽管如此,这一切并没有妨碍可口可乐赞助在中国举办的冬奥会——一个从未有过自由选举、少数族裔社区正遭受种族灭绝政策迫害的国家。那苹果公司又如何呢?苹果供应链的很大一部分都在中国。
该公司应中国政府的要求将一些应用程序从应用商店下架,理由是这些应用被人权活动人士使用。当然,苹果还是全世界最成功的企业避税高手,以将利润转移到离岸避税天堂而闻名。
再看美国运通,公司为员工推出了一项反种族主义计划,教育我们资本主义从根本上就是种族主义的,并要求员工参加一项练习,判断自己究竟是压迫者还是被压迫者。
「觉醒派」CEO们的行动主义或许已经快到极限了。佛罗里达州的民众正在反击迪士尼的罗伯特·查佩克,他不仅认同性别是一种压迫形式的观点,还认为必须强迫幼儿园去正视这个问题。巴菲特先生曾称赞迪士尼角色经久不衰的品牌魅力,以及家长们对其内容安全、适合儿童观看的信任。
但现在,公司却在《小飞象》《彼得潘》和《阿拉丁》上加了警示语,说这些作品据称描绘了刻板印象。可怜的白马王子甚至因为「未经同意」亲吻了白雪公主而被剪掉了这一幕。沃伦·巴菲特至今尚未回应正在困扰美国企业界的这场危机,我担心他永远都不会回应。
没错,伯克希尔或许只是一家控股公司,巴菲特先生或许不干涉旗下管理者的经营。但当这些高管利用他们的公司去推动一场大多数美国人并不想要的社会革命时,会发生什么?难道他就不用负责吗?他不能两头都占。
在这个国家,财富一直受到推崇,甚至被歌颂,因为我们的制度允许任何人致富。但当美国人突然发现自己的历史和未来正遭到企业界的攻击时,会发生什么?支撑这种富裕的社会契约将会被打破。巴菲特先生,如果你是资本主义的代言人,为什么不做点什么来拯救它呢?谢谢。
巴菲特:好。(嘘声)谢谢你,弗莱厄蒂先生。
如果有股东是现场投票的,现在应该在这项动议上标出自己的选票了。阿米克女士,准备好之后,请汇报结果。
丽贝卡·阿米克:我的报告已经准备好了。截至上周四晚间收到的委托书中,代理持有人的投票结果为:赞成该动议的有72,298票,反对该动议的有421,181票。(掌声)由于反对票数超过了A类股和B类股就此事项有效投票总数的多数,该动议未获通过。特拉华州法律要求的确切票数证明,将连同本次会议记录一并交给秘书存档。
巴菲特:谢谢你,阿米克女士。该提案未获通过。(掌声)
第二项提案要求公司发布年度评估报告,说明公司如何管理与气候相关的物理风险、转型风险及机遇。董事会建议股东投票反对该提案。现在我请联邦对冲基金(Federated Hermes)的代表蒂姆·尤曼斯来陈述这项提案。
蒂姆·尤曼斯:感谢主席、董事会和各位股东同仁。我是蒂姆·尤曼斯,联邦对冲基金旗下EOS的北美区负责人,今天来这里介绍第三项议案,该提案由布鲁内尔养老金合伙有限公司(由EOS代表)、魁北克储蓄投资集团(Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec)、加州公务员退休基金以及新泽西州普通养老基金D共同发起,代表他们合计数以百万计的最终受益人。
EOS、Calpers和CDBQ去年联合发起过一项类似提案,要求公司启动气候相关风险报告,但公司至今尚未开始这项工作。不过,今年这项母公司气候报告提案所处的背景,在三个方面有所不同。
第一,我们新增了新泽西州普通养老基金D作为联合发起方;第二,我们此次在年度股东大会上提出议案,背后有据我们估计去年年度股东大会上多数非内部人投票的支持。我们向公司提供了统计数据,显示去年提案获得了多数非内部人投票的支持,Glass Lewis也证实了这一结果。公司对此表示不认同,但并未说明其理由。
第三,母公司今年开始与联合发起方展开沟通。公司近期还发布了副董事长阿贝尔就董事长信函所作的补充说明,讨论了公司能源和铁路子公司的气候变化相关事宜。此外,母公司审计委员会也修订了其章程,将气候风险监督纳入其中。
我们对公司新的沟通方式、副董事长阿贝尔的补充说明以及修订后的审计委员会章程表示欢迎。然而,这些变化并未在任何实质意义上回应去年获得非内部人多数支持的股东提案的诉求,也未回应今年第三项议案的诉求,即母公司应当:A)按照气候相关财务信息披露工作组(TCFD)的建议,对具有重大影响的子公司以及母公司整体启动年度气候相关财务报告;B)说明董事会如何监督整个联合企业的气候相关风险;C)探讨母公司及其子公司设定基于科学的温室气体减排目标的可行性。
以下是为什么所有股东,包括去年支持股东提案的非内部人股东,应该再次(今年)要求董事会改变方向、支持母公司气候风险报告的原因。副董事长阿贝尔的补充说明谈到了减排。
我们要求母公司报告气候相关的财务风险,而不仅仅是减排情况,因为这些风险可能具有重大影响。阿贝尔的信函还谈到了铁路和能源这两大板块的减排情况——正如董事长年度信函中所说,这是伯克希尔四大业务中的两个。
那保险业务的气候风险呢?公司旗下有60家子公司,还有不止几笔大额投资持仓。公司应当以母公司整体的视角,披露超出铁路和能源之外的重大气候相关财务风险。
我们要求公司从其超过1000亿美元的现金及等价物中拨出一小部分,用于母公司层面的气候风险报告。在母公司层面,气候相关的财务风险可能是重大的(甚至具有实质性影响)。2021年年报第K-26页写道,气候相关风险可能造成损失,并对财务业绩产生重大影响。
然而,公司的审计报告对气候风险只字未提。我们已要求审计机构德勤(Deloitte)对这一矛盾之处作出解释。我们要求审计委员会说明,既然公司自己都披露气候风险是一项重大风险,为什么德勤在审阅财务报表时却没有披露它是如何考虑气候相关风险的。
代表68万亿美元资产的投资者组成了「气候行动100+」协同参与倡议。伯克希尔·哈撒韦是美国唯一一家在CA-100+净零评估中连续两年气候进展评分为零的大型上市公司——无可争议的垫底者。
这与伯克希尔·哈撒韦一贯强劲的长期财务业绩记录形成了鲜明反差。为回应去年非内部人多数股东的投票结果,公司已经在气候行动方面迈出了第一步。
但还远远不够。副董事长阿贝尔是被指定的CEO继任者。他在2020年和去年的股东大会发言,以及他最近的信函,都表明他对气候风险有着扎实的understanding……
这将使公司在遵循美国证券交易委员会(SEC)新提出的气候信息披露规则方面抢得先机——该规则要求披露的内容比我们在第三项议案中要求的还要多。我们呼吁所有股东,无论是非内部人还是内部人,包括董事长本人,都投票支持第三项议案,支持母公司在2023年年度股东大会之前启动气候风险披露。谢谢。
巴菲特:谢谢。
我确实认为,值得稍微讨论一下,公共养老金计划真正代表的选民究竟是谁。
总的来说,我们从各方面听到的诉求——这绝不仅限于加州——都是在保护养老金持有人、退休人员等等这些人。
因此,他们通常会提出一些我们不一定认同的建议,比如这是否真的符合经济利益。但他们确实是真心认为——顺便说一句——自己是在代表养老金持有人。
这些人现在每个月都会拿到支票。他们现在就在拿。将来也会继续拿。这是一个很容易理解的立场。但实际上,从本质上讲,这并不是他们真正代表的人。那些被承诺会拿到养老金的人,不论是在加州还是联邦其他任何一个州,他们都会拿到自己的支票。
这是显而易见的。美国、美国人民、加州人民,都绝不会容忍有人拿不到应得的支票。所以,无论如何,他们都会拿到支票。各州会尽可能地想办法,在未来从本州纳税人身上筹到足够的钱,来支付这些支票。
这也是为什么各州会采用养老金计划之类的制度。而许多州也因此发现自己的税负在上升。实际上,没有哪个州政府——美国的公众舆论——会允许人们领不到养老金支票。
而州政府确实有权对本州居民的收入、财产等各种事项征税,他们会动用这项权力,或者向联邦政府寻求拨款援助。他们什么办法都会尝试,但唯独有一件事他们绝不会做,那就是拖欠养老金领取者的钱。
所以,如果你在公共养老金机构任职,你实质上代表的其实是这个州未来的纳税人。不过,未来纳税人有一个问题:他们是可以离开这个州的。这在某些州会变得很棘手,尤其是当人们开始离开这个州时,因为伴随这些人流失的,还有所得税、销售税等等税收收入。
所以,人们享有相当程度的迁徙自由。他们对美国国内的税收并没有那种感受。没有太多人会因此从一个地方搬到另一个地方。但在美国,人们确实会搬。这是一个渐进的过程。有时候也没那么渐进。
当然,随着税基不断萎缩,过去承诺的养老金却依然存在。于是这些养老金计划就会变得像一家日渐衰老的钢铁公司之类的东西——不管具体是什么情况,养老金计划可能陷入资不抵债,但他们还是会继续支付给这些人,就像我们在公司里对某些多雇主养老金计划采取的政策一样。
美国是不会拖欠一大群人的钱的,尤其是那些会投票的人。道义上的感受就是要这么做。受托人真正应该担心的,其实是未来的纳税人——因为如果他们把事情搞得一团糟,那些纳税人就更有可能选择离开。
这会带来很多连锁影响。有意思的是,如果伯克希尔打算在某个地方建一座工厂,而这座工厂要在那里矗立50年,我们脑子里可能会盘算的一件事,就是到时候那里是否还会有人留下来交税——毕竟我们的工厂是搬不走的。
所以,这些看不见的决策一直在发生。我并不认为代表未来纳税人有什么不对。我也不认为坐在养老金理事会里有什么不对。但我确实认为,他们应该真正搞清楚自己究竟代表的是谁。
而他们代表的,是未来的纳税人。在某些情况下,他们正在给未来纳税人制造巨大的麻烦,因为他们就像政客一样——他们做出了必须兑现的承诺,但兑现这些承诺所需的钱,得靠未来的税收收入。
而他们既不能印钞票,人们又可以离开这个州。所以,这是一系列很有意思的问题。而我忍不住要提一下1991年——你们都看过那盘所罗门的录像带——当时所罗门差一点就要完蛋,可能会破产,我认为那样的话,会像野火一样迅速蔓延开来。
谁知道会发生什么呢?就像2008、2009年雷曼倒下之后发生的一些事情一样。我是说,谁知道那之后会发生什么?所罗门在当时的相对体量,其实比2008、2009年的雷曼要大得多。
就在8月的一个星期天,财政部、证券交易委员会(SEC)、美联储都在这一天做出了判断,认为他们周日上午所做的某个决定其实是个错误,必须在这个周日之内把它改过来,否则整个经济体系可能就会彻底崩溃。
在这里出售的这本书《万亿美元大分诊》(Trillion Dollar Triage)的开头几页里,就描述了那段时期。书里的一些内容,就连我自己都不清楚曾经发生过。但大体上说,美联储把艾伦·格林斯潘请了进来,杰瑞·科里根(Gerry Corrigan)也在场,尼克·布雷迪(Nick Brady)当时是财政部长,他们以各自不同程度的信心做出了决定。
但他们确实(因为不得不)在下午大约2点30分左右做出了决定:是否要推翻他们在早上10点做出的那个可以说是史无前例的决定。你们能想象要让美联储和财政部这样的机构(笑)自己推翻自己的决定,是件多难的事吗?
但他们确实意识到,他们可能做了某件会导致一场巨大破产的事,而这场破产可能演变成华尔街的一场风暴。所以他们改变了主意——这个故事在《万亿美元大分诊》(Trillion Dollar Triage)这本书里有记载。当时发生的一些事我是知道的,还有一些部分我并不清楚。
总之,所有那些机构都非常不情愿地改变了主意。大机构不喜欢改变主意,尤其是在四个小时之后,因为有个来自奥马哈的家伙告诉他们(笑),如果他们这么做,我们就要在东京宣布破产,因为我们将面临数十亿美元的挤兑,而我们付不起。
如果董事们明知公司要破产还批准优先偿付,他们要承担各种各样的法律责任。整件事眼看就要土崩瓦解。值得称赞的是(非常值得称赞),基本上是美联储和证券交易委员会(主要是美联储和财政部)出面表示,我们绝不能让这种事发生,它可能酿成一场全国性的灾难。
有好几个星期,我们大约有1,300亿到1,400亿美元的融资。在那个年代,1,300亿或1,400亿美元是一笔巨款。我们是美国最大的三四家借款人之一,每天都要借钱,而且是以政府债券作抵押来借的。
我们那里有存货(库存证券)。但我们只有40亿美元的股本,却借了1,300亿美元。有一个人(一个了不起的人),叫约翰·麦克法兰(John McFarland),他是财务主管。他一连好多天都睡在市中心的办公室里,或者就在所罗门办公室附近,因为每天都有10亿美元资金在流失。
所罗门遭遇了挤兑,而这正是财政部、美联储和证券交易委员会都不希望发生的事——于是他们改变了主意,诸如此类。事情发生几天后,出于某种原因——加州公务员退休基金(CalPERS)曾是我们的一大放款方,他们决定不再与所罗门做生意了。
他们打算加速这场挤兑。有一天他们宣布,他们大体上认可正在发生的一切,但就是不想再跟我们有任何往来,尽管我们是拿政府债券作抵押给他们的。这让美联储、美国(笑)财政部、证券交易委员会的处境更加艰难。当时没有人知道事情会如何收场。
但他们撤资了,别人也撤资了,约翰·麦克法兰一直留在市中心,不断设法每天筹集10亿美元,以应付这场挤兑,偿付所有人。美联储不希望这场挤兑失控,但他们又不能把钱给我们。
财政部也不希望挤兑失控,但他们同样不能给我们钱,诸如此类。你知道,这是个非常棘手的问题。而加州公务员退休基金,就像我说的,他们说,好吧,我们不想再跟这些人有任何往来,所以即便贷款本身是安全的,我们也不会再以政府证券作抵押放贷了。
后来不久,他们给我捎话说,如果我肯到加州去,跟那些人(受托人)谈一谈,他们就会重新考虑。所以这就是他们想要的条件——不再继续参与这场挤兑,转而采取不同的立场。
要不是因为这件事关乎所罗门,我是绝对不会为了任何别的事情这么做的。我是说,基本上,我登上飞机,飞到加州,跟加州公务员退休基金的人见了面。我没有向他们收取任何费用。如果我向他们收了一大笔钱,他们倒是会更重视我说的话。
而他们依然很重视。我去的时候,他们对我非常友好。我跟他们谈了话,他们很高兴,还鼓掌,而且认真听我说的话,因为我并没有向他们收取高额费用之类的东西。
然后我回到纽约,之后他们就开始重新跟我们做生意了,并宣布他们已经认定所罗门是适合做生意的对象。所以,每当他们回心转意、提出一项提案时,我多少会带一点偏见(笑)。
他们在提案中说——这写在我们的委托书声明里,我们已经向证券交易委员会备案了。如果不是真的,我们是不会这么说的。基本上,他们——他们和其他一些人——犯了个错误。他们犯了个错,说了一些关于股东投票的话。
这是他们支持提案的一部分内容,上面写着,在2021年年度股东大会上,绝大多数非内部股东支持了本决议的一个类似版本。而我们在答复中说,提案方所声称的——在2021年年度股东大会上,绝大多数非内部股东支持了一项类似决议——这一说法是不正确的。
事实上,绝大多数上述股东并不支持该提案。这要么是真的,要么是假的。你知道,我手上有那家公司提交的最后一份报告,就是替我们在Broadmoor处理相关材料的那家公司。叫什么来着?Broadridge。
报告里列出了股东人数,是投票前最后一天左右的数据。上面有支持我们和反对我们的股东人数,比例大概是四比一,对我们有利,差不多是这样。
但这些对他们来说毫无影响。我是说,这一点让我觉得很有意思——(掌声)而且,你知道,如果能找到一位公正的裁判,我愿意跟任何人打赌:不管你挑选哪个群体——就拿美国五家领先公用事业公司的CEO,或者十家领先公司的CEO来说,问问他们,伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司是不是在可再生能源领域一直处于领先地位,诸如此类,他们全都会说是的。
但本质上,有那么一群人给我们写信说:“我们希望你们按我们的方式行事。你们还有300万其他股东,但别管他们了,在这件事上花点钱,跟我们开个会。这是我们衡量债务的方法。”
诚然,我们已经把我们所做的一切信息都公开了。他们可以去爱荷华州实地看看,那里几乎可以说是世界可再生能源之都。而这是我们做到的。但这并不是他们想要的。(掌声)
所以,我是赞成股东民主之类的理念的,但事实是,这项决议——他们付了很多钱给某个大概就在这些团体里工作的人。他们有自己的一套做法。我收到过来自欧洲机构的信。
他们说:“呃,你知道,你们也许有40页文件,或者一段可以追溯到2006年的历史来解释你们在做什么,但这就是我们希望你们做的方式。”你知道,我们旗下的Garanimals又能耗多少能源?这就是问题所在,你得站在坐在奥马哈这里的一个人的角度想一想,你知道,这些就是规则。在特定情形下,你就会被列入委托书声明。
大多数公司不想有太多这样的决议,所以对它们来说,干脆设立一个部门,花钱雇一批人去应付这些团体,会更省事——就像沃伦当年飞越整个国家去做的那样。
因为这不是钱的问题。我只是担心公司能不能活下去,华盛顿那边的人、那些监管者也担心它能不能活下去。如果我飞越整个国家,向他们表达足够的敬意,我是说,这有点像《教父》里的情节,你懂的。
我就是低头行礼,然后飞回去。所以,我心里是有些保留意见的。股东提案应该有点实际意义。我是说,这是我年轻时曾经主张的那种事情。但你知道,基本上,依我看,现在有些事项可以放进提案,有些则不能。
而且几乎全国每一位高管,如今身为首席执行官,都想开虚拟会议。他们最不愿意做的事,就是让股东和人们站起来提出各种提议。我们会一直谈论这个话题。在我们看来,最终这次我们会有一份投票结果的报告。
我可以向你们保证,我们没有做票。我们什么都没干。我是说,选票造假——这可不像芝加哥老早年那样,等着“公墓选票”送进来之类的事。我们自己并不计票,你知道。
我们不说这些票从哪儿来。我们也不知道它们从哪儿来。但我们能看出,当两三家机构持有大量股份,实际上背后却是同一个所有者时,会怎样。他们按某种固定方式投票,然后就觉得自己很“纯洁”。而他们在意的,是我们有没有勾选他们的框,以及为他们工作的那些人。
有一定数量的人靠他们吃饭,而他们自认为用心良善。但我们的用心也并不邪恶。说到这,我不会再重复这些了。不过,这确实是一个很有意思的发展趋势——事情正变得越来越以规则为基础,基本上每家公司都在琢磨该如何跟这些人打交道。
而他们手里握着相当多的CEO。我是说,这些CEO只是觉得这是不得不忍受的事。他们设立一个部门来回答问题、跟这些人开会、给予应有的尊重,诸如此类。而你知道,这么做只是为了把某件事应付过去,而我认为这件事本质上相当愚蠢。
如果我认为伯克希尔·哈撒韦能源公司的行为方式对社会不利,比其他公用事业公司更糟糕,我不会坐视不管。但没有一家公司——原因当然在于,我们不从中抽取股息,而是往这门生意里注入了数百亿美元。
事实上,每一家公用事业公司都会派发股息。这不是这些公司管理层的错,这只是公用事业行业一直以来的惯例。但这样一来,它们手头其实剩不下多少现金。而我们有充裕的现金,而且我们还会投入更多现金。
我们愿意建设,你知道,不管数量多少的输电线路,以及各种对国家有益的设施。我们已经做了不少,但我们本可以做得更多。而事实上,我们比国内任何一家公用事业公司都更有条件去做这件事。
我想,如果你去跟其他公用事业公司的高管谈,我不建议你去让他们难堪之类的,但他们会认同这一点。不过他们也清楚,只要有人专门去应付那些想被迎合的人,他们的日子就会好过得多。
1991年所罗门那件事上,我就迎合过他们,因为那里有8,000名员工在工作。约翰·麦克法兰当时正设法每天筹集10亿美元。财政部、美联储、证券交易委员会都希望我们能活下去。事实上,正是这件事促使我跑去向“教父”表达敬意,然后再飞回来。不过我确实觉得,讲一点背景故事还挺有意思的。好了,接下来我们请阿米克女士做她的报告,好吗?(掌声)
丽贝卡·阿米克:我的报告已经准备好了。截至上周四晚间收到的委托书投票结果显示,赞成该议案的有127,214票,反对该议案的有370,415票。由于反对票数超过了在该事项上正式投出的全部A类股和B类股票数的多数,该议案未获通过。按照特拉华州法律要求出具的精确计票认证,已交予秘书存档,随本次会议记录一并保存。
巴菲特:好的,我再补充一点(掌声),一两天前我收到了一份报告,是那家公司发来的最后一份报告,比例是四比一或五比一。我很乐意跟任何人分享这份报告。但就股东人数而言,根据新泽西那边的人告诉我的投票结果,我们是反对该提案的。
而且,你知道,如果他们明年重新提出这项提案,我只是希望他们把那一句话去掉。因为我只想建议,在宣布提案之类的事情之前,应该先有人把提案内容或者事实核实清楚。
好的,第三项提案要求公司发布一份报告,说明公司是否打算以及打算如何衡量、披露并减少与承保、保险及投资活动相关的温室气体排放。董事会建议股东投票反对该提案。现在,我请Whistle Stop Capital的代表杰伦·斯潘(Jaylen Spann)陈述这项提案。
杰伦·斯潘:主席先生、巴菲特先生,各位董事会成员,下午好。我叫杰伦·斯潘。首先我要感谢各位给我这个机会,代表股东代表As You Sow陈述第四号提案。该提案要求伯克希尔衡量、披露并开始减少其保险、承保和投资活动所支持的温室气体排放。
简单来说,这项提案要求伯克希尔为其对气候变化的影响负责。美国商品期货交易委员会已经承认,气候变化可能损害国家经济的生产能力。
一系列与气候变化相关的全国乃至全球性事件——加利福尼亚州和科罗拉多州的火灾、中西部各地的洪水、日益增强的飓风、德克萨斯州的严寒,仅举几例——都表明气候变化带来的风险和成本正在不断上升。
2021年是全球保险业有记录以来损失第二高的一年,自然灾害造成的承保损失总计达1,200亿美元。值得注意的是,这些损失已经不能再简单地归结为“运气不好的一年”。正如慕尼黑再保险公司(Munich Re)所指出的,自然灾害造成的经济损失正呈上升趋势。
保险业面临着与气候变化相关的承保损失逐年增长的局面。伯克希尔不仅面临气候相关风险,而且还在通过持续投资和承保高碳活动,积极放大这些风险。
伯克希尔是石油和天然气行业最大的承保提供商之一,超过了Chubb和Liberty Mutual等同业。仅其股权持仓一项就高达51亿美元,再次远远超过其美国同业。
一家金融机构的投资和承保活动,是其总碳足迹迄今为止最大的来源,这凸显了伯克希尔有必要去衡量、披露并开始为其所促成的排放承担责任。
全球金融业正在积极应对挑战,以实现《巴黎协定》将全球气温上升幅度控制在1.5摄氏度以内的目标。净零保险联盟已发展到22个成员,其中7个位列全球市值最大的30家保险公司之中。
所有成员都已承诺到2050年,其保险和再保险承保业务组合实现净零排放。美国国际集团(AIG)和哈特福德也在最近承诺,将在2050年或更早实现其承保和投资组合的净零排放。
伯克希尔在这方面落后于其美国和欧洲同行,这一处境在全球范围内、也对其自身的投资组合增加了气候风险。保险业、尤其是伯克希尔,在这场持续进行的低碳转型中扮演着关键角色。
我们相信,伯克希尔有能力在这一至关重要的议题上成为气候领导者。第一步是量化其承保和投资活动所产生的排放,披露这些排放,并开始制定与《巴黎协定》目标相一致的减排计划。
为确保在保护这个星球及其居民方面取得全球性的成功,每家企业都必须为自己对气候变化的贡献承担责任。我们期待与伯克希尔合作,共同应对这一至关重要的问题。谢谢。
巴菲特:谢谢你,斯潘女士。(掌声)这项动议现在还不能付诸表决。如果有股东在现场投票,他们现在应该——这里能不能把灯光调亮一点?他们现在应该在议案上标记自己的选票了。阿米克女士,你准备好之后,可以宣布你的报告。
丽贝卡·阿米克:我的报告已经准备好了。截至上周四晚间收到的委托书中,代理持有人的表决结果为:赞成该动议127,065票,反对该动议370,630票。由于反对票数超过了所有A类和B类股票就该事项正式投出票数的多数,该动议未获通过。特拉华州法律所要求的准确票数认证,已交给秘书,将随会议记录一并存档。(掌声)
巴菲特:谢谢你,阿米克女士。议案未获通过。第四项议案要求公司就其在多元化、公平与包容方面所做努力的成果向股东作出报告。董事会建议股东对该议案投反对票。现在我们请杰伦·斯潘作为Whistle Stop的代表,来介绍这项议案。
杰伦·斯潘:大家好。我叫杰伦·斯潘。我代表非营利倡导组织As You Sow以及Whistle Stop Capital发言。我正式提出第五号议案,要求伯克希尔·哈撒韦通过公布按性别、种族和族裔划分的员工构成、招聘、留任及晋升比例的量化数据,来报告其多元化、公平与包容工作的成果。
沃伦·巴菲特曾经提到,他是和两个姐妹一起长大的,用巴菲特先生自己的话说,她们“绝对和我一样聪明,性格还比我更好”。他还坦率承认,直到2003年,也就是他创办公司40年之后,在妻子的建议下,他才把女性纳入董事会。
知道所有性别、种族和族裔的人都能够为伯克希尔·哈撒韦作出贡献是一回事;而在一家公司内部,有意识地、主动地为这些人创造出空间、机会和所需的培训,让他们能够在不遭受骚扰和歧视的情况下作出贡献,则完全是另外一回事。
在缺乏数据的情况下,我们只能假设伯克希尔·哈撒韦旗下的公司既不比美国其他公司更好,也不比它们更差。而美国公司的相关统计数据是令人无法接受的,尤其是考虑到《华尔街日报》、麦肯锡、瑞士信贷等机构所发现的、多元化公平包容项目与企业业绩表现之间的强关联性时更是如此。
42%的美国人在工作中目睹过或亲身经历过种族歧视。64%的黑人员工表示,歧视是他们自己工作场所存在的问题。许多有色人种甚至完全被拒之于职场之外。
一项回顾了1989年至2017年数据的元分析发现,平均而言,白人获得的回访邀请比黑人多24%,比拉丁裔多36%。如果我们看一看伯克希尔的高管团队,可以看到,总部的领导团队所呈现出的性别和种族多元化程度是值得骄傲的。
伯克希尔·哈撒韦总部所存在的文化,看起来是一种能够招聘、雇用、晋升并留住多元化员工的文化。巴菲特先生一直强调文化的重要性,以及文化对公司长期成功所具有的价值。
他曾说过,“决定一个组织行为方式的,与其说是规则手册,不如说是文化。”投资者希望得到保证,这种文化在著名的、高度分权的伯克希尔·哈撒韦旗下各家公司中,也同样得到了成功的贯彻实施。
为了让投资者了解自身职场的多元化状况,标普100指数中有87家公司已经发布、或已承诺发布其EEO-1表格,这是一份由政府强制要求的、按雇用层级划分性别、种族和族裔构成的标准化统计表。
相比之下,在伯克希尔所拥有的60多家公司中,只有一家公开发布过这份表格。只有一家。这不是巴菲特先生一贯以来所展现出的那种领导力。为了让投资者对不仅是伯克希尔自身员工、也包括其投资组合公司员工的实际境遇有一个全面的了解,公司也必须公开有关多元化员工招聘、留任和晋升比例的包容性数据。
董事会所披露的信息不足以让投资者相信,伯克希尔·哈撒韦旗下各公司在多元化、公平与包容方面是用心关注的。我们鼓励公司即便在尚不完美的情况下也保持透明,以此表明公司领导层确实致力于变革,并致力于吸引、留住和晋升最优秀的员工。谢谢。(掌声)
巴菲特:我当然同意你说的,我的姐妹们更好看、更聪明、性格也更好。而且在1930年代,她们有一位父亲、一位母亲和一些老师,他们爱她们,就像爱我一样。如果我出生时是女性、是黑人,或者出生在其他各种各样的国家,我绝不可能拥有我现在所享有的这种生活,差得远了。
但如果说高层人士的信念对我们各家子公司的行为方式确实重要的话,那么可以肯定,凡是经营我们任何一家子公司的人,都清楚我的想法是什么。他们同样清楚,自己的业务是由他们自己来掌管的。
而且我们认为,在我们几乎每一家公司里,我们都拥有出色的领导者。当然,我们时不时也会发现自己犯了错误。但如果说我们应该去更换我们旗下企业的经营者,我并不认为那是应有的经营之道。
我要告诉大家,免得这个问题以后再被提出来:就我们的股东而言,投票结果同样是大约四比一或五比一——这是伯克希尔公司股东们的投票,不去区分A股还是B股——基本上,那些主要的大基金,它们担心的是外界对它们的观感,但它们也很可能是真心相信这一点。谁也说不清人们的动机究竟是什么。
有人说过,“动机”这个词永远不应该以单数形式使用,因为我们其实并不真正了解。但有一点是肯定的:在那些经营大机构的人当中,很难找到有人在做违背自身利益的事情。
这并不意味着他们的行为一定就是在为自身利益服务。他们的行为动机是多种多样的。但如果人们身上的这一点是可以改变的,那对美国人未来的处境会大有裨益。可这基本上是无法改变的。
我的意思是,这本质上关乎人们如何行事以保护他们自身的利益。而在四五十年前,他们的自身利益基本上就是把美国企业界当作一个“男孩俱乐部”来看待。而如今这已经不再被接受了,所以他们改变了。
但在对待黑人的问题上,他们的改变幅度还远远不够。这就是我们这个社会目前所处的位置。但总的来说,我们的股东并不同意你的看法,尽管你给了他们表达自己观点的机会。那么阿米克女士,你准备好之后,可以宣布你的报告。
丽贝卡·阿米克:我的报告已经准备好了。截至上周四晚间收到的委托书中,代理持有人的表决结果为:赞成该动议123,614票,反对该动议373,925票。由于反对票数超过了所有A类和B类股票就该事项正式投出票数的多数,该动议未获通过。特拉华州法律所要求的准确票数认证,已交给秘书,将随会议记录一并存档。
巴菲特:谢谢你,阿米克女士。议案未获通过。(掌声)
女声:我提议本次会议到此休会。
女声:我附议休会的动议。